Ad Lib Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 With the relative decline in influence of the SNP List vote due to their far stronger showing in the constituencies, the Greens can continue to poll around the same level and win far more seats as a result - Labour taking more List seats than usual isn't going to entirely cover the gap left by the SNP hardly taking any unless all the polls are absolutely miles out and they end up taking 30+ seats. That's not really how AMS works. If the Greens hold at the same level and win more seats it will be because Labour's list vote has fallen and the Tory vote hasn't mopped up enough to turn 1 seat into 2 or 2 into 3 in the relevant region, rather than because the SNP have swept the constituencies and struggled on the list. Any constituency losses Labour made from 2011 would be entirely compensated for by the list as they didn't really have much if anything of an "overhang" from any of the constituency results last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparky88 Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 In 2011 the polls were wrong . 5 days before the election a poll said the greens were on 8%, their actual list share on the day was just over 4%- and this was with the lib dem vote collapsing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 The 2011 polls massively underestimate the SNP list Vite too. People seem to be comfortable expressing a second preference when polled but stick to what they know in the booth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 That's not really how AMS works. If the Greens hold at the same level and win more seats it will be because Labour's list vote has fallen and the Tory vote hasn't mopped up enough to turn 1 seat into 2 or 2 into 3 in the relevant region, rather than because the SNP have swept the constituencies and struggled on the list. Any constituency losses Labour made from 2011 would be entirely compensated for by the list as they didn't really have much if anything of an "overhang" from any of the constituency results last time. Aye I've worded that badly, obviously it's dependent on the Labour vote falling as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunning1874 Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Another prediction to have fun with - how many lost deposits? I'm going with 1 Conservative, 1 Green, 3 Labour & 51 Lib Dem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Willie Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 Another prediction to have fun with - how many lost deposits? I'm going with 1 Conservative, 1 Green, 3 Labour & 51 Lib Dem. :lol: I'll stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted April 30, 2016 Share Posted April 30, 2016 What was that website that was forecasting the votes in all the constituencies? The one that had the Greens winning Edinburgh Central Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 Wasted a couple of hours one night in September trying to predict this and got: SNP - 73 Labour - 27 Tories - 18 Green - 8 Lib Dems - 3 Would probably alter that slightly now - with far less thought going into it -and say: SNP - 71 Labour - 25 Tories - 20 Green - 7 Lib Dems - 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexDolan Posted May 1, 2016 Share Posted May 1, 2016 SNP - 74 Labour - 26 Tories - 17 Greens - 7 Lib Dems - 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Rational Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 They might and I stress might sneak in with one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 They might and I stress might sneak in with one. Where are they most likely? I think Coburn is standing in H&I? That would be glorious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peppino Impastato Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Where are they most likely?I think Coburn is standing in H&I? That would be glorious. Where are they most likely?I think Coburn is standing in H&I? That would be glorious.Vile tory thinks it would be glorious if a racist got elected shocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crossbill Posted May 2, 2016 Author Share Posted May 2, 2016 Highlands and Islands and South Scotland are both possibles for a UKIP seat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 What's with the UKIP prediction? Surely they have no chance of getting a seat? I'm going to start being very rude about teuchters if he is. Fucking shameful if it happens. http://www.thenational.scot/politics/ukips-david-coburn-tipped-to-take-partys-first-seat-in-holyrood-despite-embarrassing-gaffes.16988 P.S. A car in UKIP colours has been driving around Inverness blaring out "VOTE UKIP TO LEAVE EUROPE ON MAY 5TH!". They must be hoping for the really really thick vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Coburn in Holyrood would be utterly hilarious. I'd pop a vote in for him for a laugh if I was a teuchter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 UKIP in-fighting. http://m.heraldscotland.com/news/14464129.Ukip_in_complete_meltdown_in_Scotland_ahead_of_Holyrood_vote/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Willie Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Coburn in Holyrood would be utterly hilarious. I'd pop a vote in for him for a laugh if I was a teuchter. I'm a teuchter and I'll still vote SNP/SNP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peppino Impastato Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Anyone who doesn't vote SNP these days is a dick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Anyone who doesn't vote SNP these days is a dick Too right fuzzy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted May 2, 2016 Share Posted May 2, 2016 Anyone who doesn't vote SNP these days is a dick Wow we literally have Fascism in this thread. Hiya Kim McJong-Un, hiya pal!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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