#BothVotesSNP

[Granny Danger]

The power is real, the illusion is our amount of influence over who wields the power.

You really need to be contributing to the conspiracy theories on the Trump thread.

[Glen Sannox]

The Green's letting that cow Davidson slink in via a constituency will leave a bad taste in my mouth for a while.

Pleasing!

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[doulikefish]

ImageUploadedByPie & Bovril1462548775.190326.jpg

Pleasing!

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Poor minter ukip couldnt even get a "list" seat

[Granny Danger]

The 'How dare these people not vote Labour' arrogance of Lamont and her ilk seem to have spilled over into a small section of SNP supporters.

[ayrmad]

The 'How dare these people not vote Labour' arrogance of Lamont and her ilk seem to have spilled over into a small section of SNP supporters.

Can't be arsed with those types, 5 years of having to think about it will do the SNP the world of good.

[Peppino Impastato]

The 'How dare these people not vote Labour' arrogance of Lamont and her ilk seem to have spilled over into a small section of SNP supporters.

absolute nonsense, my issue is with snp voters who leant their second vote to the greens in the mistaken belief an independence majority would be just as effective as an snp one. It's naive in the extreme and damaging to the cause they support.

No parallels at all.

[ayrmad]

absolute nonsense, my issue is with snp voters who leant their second vote to the greens in the mistaken belief an independence majority would be just as effective as an snp one. It's naive in the extreme and damaging to the cause they support. No parallels at all.

When the people are ready for indyref2 nobody will stop it happening, brexit will have the people ready.

[itzdrk]

Get Tories.

[thisGRAEME]

There must be a better system than the List. Voters do not even choose the candidates. Thousands of votes making not a jot o difference.

Funny how often this has appeared over the last 24 hours, when previously everyone thought it was good.

Funny.

[Ira Gaines]

I'm quite happy with how it's turned out tbh. Not sure about Tories getting so many seats though. Outside of that, I have no complaints.

[MarkoRaj]

I think the list system works perfectly. It's designed to stop an overall majority with less than 50% of the vote and that's exactly what's happened.

[doulikefish]

I'm quite happy with how it's turned out tbh. Not sure about Tories getting so many seats though. Outside of that, I have no complaints.

Im very happy this is what we wanted,its us v the tories or as john lambies doos says its nat v yoon,its my fucking wet dream

[harry94]

I don't think anyone has suggested the SNP should have campaigned for SNP/Green, but they didn't have to push SNP/SNP as hard as they did. Most parties just have the "both votes" thing as a general, but not prominent, part of their campaign literature.

On the Election Day thread, there's people who said they wanted to vote SNP/Green but decided on SNP/SNP at the last minute because their original intention felt too risky. Would they have changed their minds without the active campaign? I guess we'll never know.

But in regions where the SNP is strong in the constituencies, it's very hard for them to get a list seat. In 2011, Mark McDonald was on the podium in Aberdeen in jeans and a jumper because nobody thought he would even come close. There were people ahead of him on the list, and they were all standing in constituencies - which, it was thought, if they all won, there would be no chance of a list seat.

Someone feel free to check me on my maths, but by my calculations the Tories' 4th seat in the North East was the 7th overall on an adjusted total of 17,170. That means the SNP would have needed 33,000 more votes to get a list seat in NE.

However, if you take the average constituency vote for the SNP in that region, it's 48.86%. Apply that to the total list vote in the North East region and they only reach 150,000 or thereabouts. So even if every SNP voter in the North East did SNP/SNP, they'd still have fallen short. Sure, those extra votes would have had to come from somewhere but my guess is that it wouldn't hit the Tory total to any significant degree. Likely the Greens would have dropped further back.

This is a 5 minute back of an envelope calculation. Feel free to point out where I might have gone wrong.

 

Spot on with your reasoning apart from my excel spreadsheet making it 34610 for the SNP to take that 7th seat.

 

A swing of 2057 (around 1.5%) would have given the Greens a list seat at the expense of the Conservatives and a swing of 21766 (around 16%) would have given them 2 additional seats at the expense of Conservatives and Lib Dems.

 

If there was just that 2% swing in different regions, we could maybe be seeing the Greens into the double figures. Not calculated anywhere apart from the North East though.

[Scary Bear]

If they had campaigned for SNP-Green then they'd be tying their hands when it comes to the business of government as they'd have difficulty credibly opposing a party that they'd told people to vote for. And the SNP is a wide enough Kirk outside of the issue of independence already without destabilising it further likes that.

Being unable to call a referendum on it's own isn't a problem for the SNP until such time as they actually want to do it.

They won't want to do it till they think they can win it

And if they were unable to win a clear majority at Holyrood then it's probably not a good time to call a referendum.

As it's worked out they'll have to form a minority government and concentrate on running the country for a bit instead.

I don't think the SNP would ever actively campaign for the Greens. I just meant not pushing the both votes SNP thing quite so hard.

It was fairly obvious the SNP would do well in the Constituency seats, given the results in the UK General Election in 2015.

Winning a clear majority at Holyrood may never happen again, given the system is set up to avoid that outcome.

[Scary Bear]

and how would that benefit the SNP

Be very specific

By making it likely that those MSPs could be counted on to side with the SNP MSPs over any future second referendum.

Got to be better than having unionist MSPs who would bitterly oppose a second referendum.

[Falcor Roar]

of As I said, all these second vote green types are wallopers swho hhave just seriously damaged the independence cause, kiss goodbye to a referendum in this parliament now as the greens won't support it.

 

Tasty salted tears yum yum. #2ndvotegreenandproud

[The Master]

Spot on with your reasoning apart from my excel spreadsheet making it 34610 for the SNP to take that 7th seat.

Close enough! I didn't calculate the exact figure - just looked at the rough ballpark needed.

Have you put Glasgow into your spreadsheet? I get a similar result there - the Tories took the 7th seat on an adjusted total of 14,767, meaning the SNP would have needed another 36,779 votes.

However, when we look at Lothian, where the SNP did well but still only took 6 of the 9 seats, they were only 64 votes short of a list seat.

The conclusion to be drawn is that "#BothVotesSNP" was only beneficial (or would have been beneficial) in areas where the SNP didn't dominate. In places like Glasgow and the North East, it simply served to help other parties - mostly the Tories.

[invergowrie arab]

By making it likely that those MSPs could be counted on to side with the SNP MSPs over any future second referendum.

Got to be better than having unionist MSPs who would bitterly oppose a second referendum.

There is a majority of MSPs for second referendum should those circumstances come about.

Can you answer me in terms of delivering their manifesto and actually governing how the SNP would be best served by having less MSPs?

[invergowrie arab]

PS wings is worth the watching tonight. Absolute heads gone from him today.

[Im_Rodger]