milhouse Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Where will this leave Boris? Once hyped as the stick on favourite to replace Cameron. It's all gone wrong. Cameron always seems to be the one taking the handshakes at the airfield after a night of long knives. Gideon for next PM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Peter Kellner predicts an 8.5% win for Remain. http://politicscounter.com/?p=95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 If Remain win I think the knives will be out for him - not openly but in a much more in the back way. Cameron & Co's knives are already out for Boris. The personal attacks by Rudd and Davidson must have been the result of instructions from Downing Street. Pro-Leave MPs were livid. Even if Remains wins by a decent margin, there should be enough rebels to force a vote of confidence on Cameron's leadership. The Tory civil war has already begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Master Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 There's only one pollster I'll believe. Put your faith in the Prof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Peter Kellner predicts an 8.5% win for Remain. http://politicscounter.com/?p=95 With this caveat : If you need a more exact forecast, I suggest you toss a coin or ask an astrologer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Even so, exit polls (even huge ones) should not cost that much. As a client, I have used most of the top polling firms so I know what they charge. "The Game is Not Yet Over Boris Schlossberg, Director at BK Asset Management has an important announcement: "With polls showing a clearly divided populace the situation remains fluid and markets could turn on a dime if news begins to leak out that Leave vote is close. "As of now GBP/USD has become a highly asymmetrical bet with most of the upside already factored into the trade. Therefore if Remain does win the cable rally is likely to peter out at the 1.5000 level. However if Leave begins to pull ahead the pair could slide as much as 1000 points in a matter of minutes." The Pound is Nearly 'Fully Priced'This could be the big rally - long before the results are out! What a shame for those hedge funds that paid £500K a pop for something they didn't really need. The pound may be hitting the limit of its recovery potential as fair value is found. “With implied betting probabilities of an exit having dipped below 15% we have seen GBP USD take out the 1.49 level for the first time this year. If we see a move back towards 1.50/51 we may start to see investors seeing some value in fresh shorts as the rally looks increasingly fully valued,†says Jeremy Stretch at CIBC Markets." Interesting! The type of polling we are talking about is on the hour every hour so is extremely expensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Peter Kellner predicts an 8.5% win for Remain. http://politicscounter.com/?p=95 Kellner is very pro-Remain and is married to Baroness Cathy Ashton who was the previous EU Commissioner under Labour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 The type of polling we are talking about is on the hour every hour so is extremely expensive. Yes but a lot of voters will visit the polling stations after work. The terrible weather in the South East will mean that even more will vote this evening. I would not risk substantial amounts of money on early exit polling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 A wee reminder from 2015 - http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/05/06/who-will-win-the-election_n_7225106.html Paddy Power's odds on a Tory overall majority on eve of general election were seven to one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
banana Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Bookies have 50-55% remain at 9/4, tempting Where?? Ive seen 13/8 for that 55-60% is generally 9/4 odds as now http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/remain-vote-percentage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YassinMoutaouakil Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Anyone know what set of results would lead to England voting Leave but the UK as a whole Remaining? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Anyone know what set of results would lead to England voting Leave but the UK as a whole Remaining? 51.6% vote Leave in England mean Leave wins overall. So anywhere in the narrow band of 50-51.6%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gordon EF Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Have you actually seen the polling numbers or are you only taking Scotland into consideration? I assume the confidence on this is based on a belief that don't knows will break mainly to remain, but that remains to be seen. Think this one is much more difficult to predict than the independence referendum was where the narrow No win was reasonably obvious by the end. It's largely to do with the undecideds breaking to the status quo - they always do, they always will. It's also to do with how confident the bookies are. I simply won't believe they're getting it so wrong when so much is at stake for them. They'll have been polling the shit out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 It's largely to do with the undecideds breaking to the status quo - they always do, they always will. It's also to do with how confident the bookies are. I simply won't believe they're getting it so wrong when so much is at stake for them. They'll have been polling the shit out of this. I believe there is research out there than in most referenda where there is a no turning back decision the undecided break 2 to 1 for the status quo. That means that even on a 50-50 poll it is still more likely that Remain wins. One other thing regards polls - hardly any include Northern Ireland and this may be underestimating Remain's vote by around 1% - another reason Remain were still leading in the betting even at 50-50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamin_Nevis Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 I think overall will be 54-46 remain. Obviously I'd sell my soul to Satan for England to leave by 51-49 but be kept in by a huge Scottish 'remain'. The #scenes that would cause would far exceed the comedy of May 2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Low turnout in Inverness a couple of hours ago, 200 out of 800 which the guy said was very low for that time of day. Hoping Scotland hasn't got vote fatigue as that would help Leave. On the plus side I've got a bet on a low turnout. If there's a low turnout across the UK I think it might help Remain as most of them will know where to vote and how to make an X sign in the right place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 It's largely to do with the undecideds breaking to the status quo - they always do, they always will. It's also to do with how confident the bookies are. I simply won't believe they're getting it so wrong when so much is at stake for them. They'll have been polling the shit out of this. The bookies will mainly be going by the volumes of cash getting lumped on either side to minimise potential losses. They'll be looking to make a guaranteed profit whatever happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.