topcat(The most tip top) Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 A lot of bookies have stopped taking betsIt is ilegal to publish exit polls in the media but if you've got a private poll, and lot's of financial institutions will, you can trade on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 The polls that have been published this week, including this morning's, indicate that it's 50/50 - too close to call. If the markets are trusting ComRes, with its dubious don't know allocation, they could be in for a nasty shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 A lot of bookies have stopped taking bets It is ilegal to publish exit polls in the media but if you've got a private poll, and lot's of financial institutions will, you can trade on it. Yup, Martin Lewis was encouraging people on twitter to watch the variation of the pound exchange rates today Some of the bookies have remain out at 1/10 now, I think it's game over for Farage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 I wonder if the weather is going to affect turnout and result. Bright sunshine here in Scotland and storms/flooding in Essex and other parts of the South East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 I wonder if the weather is going to affect turnout and result. Bright sunshine here in Scotland and storms/flooding in Essex and other parts of the South East. Gawd must want a remain vote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 A lot of bookies have stopped taking bets It is ilegal to publish exit polls in the media but if you've got a private poll, and lot's of financial institutions will, you can trade on it. Apparently hedge funds have commissioned exit polls at £500,000 a pop. We should be able to track it by Sterling and UK stock fluctuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Gawd must want a remain vote Not really as I think London is the worst affected and is likely to be a pro-Remain city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 No chance is Leave winning this now. With Don't Knows generally favouring the status quo, I think we'd have needed to be around 5% ahead at least consistently in the polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Apparently hedge funds have commissioned exit polls at £500,000 a pop. We should be able to track it by Sterling and UK stock fluctuations. Got a link for that information? £500k is way OTT for opinion polls. Even a 20k sample, to minimise the margin error, with several questions would be less than £100k. That was the size of the BBC GE exit poll that got the result result right. It also predicted the Lib Dem massacre to Paddy Pantsdown's chagrin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 No chance is Leave winning this now. With Don't Knows generally favouring the status quo, I think we'd have needed to be around 5% ahead at least consistently in the polls. This has all the makings of a landslide. Which in my biased opinion (there is no other kind of opinion) is as it should be be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 GPBJPY up to 157 right now from about 154 yesterday and 148 last week. Good sign for remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 GPBJPY up to 157 right now from about 154 yesterday and 148 last week. Good sign for remain. Fantastic stuff. What does any of that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Got a link for that information? £500k is way OTT for opinion polls. Even a 20k sample, to minimise the margin error, with several questions would be less than £100k. That was the size of the BBC GE exit poll that got the result result right. It also predicted the Lib Dem massacre to Paddy Pantsdown's chagrin. There's more in the FT but I can't access it without subscribing: Hedgies Jump the QueueThere will be some private exit polls released as polls close at 10PM tonight. The only problem is they were conducted by hedge funds. So look for heavy directional bets on the market to indicate which way they see the results as having gone. A plummet in the pound tells us Brexit has won. In fact, be careful, big-money traders may know what is going on before the results are made known. The following quotes were taken from a pollster by the Financial Times: "Hedge funds have asked for exit polls and for hourly polls on the day. "Banks are certainly commissioning polls for their own consumption that are never released." "We are also being asked if we will do polls on the day. People in the City are wanting a head start." The cost of a basic exit poll starts at around £500,000. https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/eur/5082-pound-to-euro-exchange-rate-3434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
invergowrie arab Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Fantastic stuff. What does any of that mean? Oodles of noodles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Fantastic stuff. What does any of that mean? How many Japanese yen £1 buys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmothecat Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Remain to get close to 60% is my revised prediction. Surprised by some of the people on my Facebook who are voting leave. Seem to be the people who I would have guessed will be most negatively effected by a leave vote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fide Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 How many Japanese yen £1 buys At current rates, 157.122002 Japanese Yen. You're welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 Got a link for that information? £500k is way OTT for opinion polls. Even a 20k sample, to minimise the margin error, with several questions would be less than £100k. That was the size of the BBC GE exit poll that got the result result right. It also predicted the Lib Dem massacre to Paddy Pantsdown's chagrin. It's not way OTT - £500k is pretty normal for a single trade on what used to be the LIFFE (now ICE Futures Europe). Multiple trades would more than cover that cost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bairn Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 At current rates, 157.122002 Japanese Yen. You're welcome. Pretty scary that the currency of world leading developed nation is worth less than a penny Do they have an equivalent of pence in Japan that are worth even less than Yens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adamski Posted June 23, 2016 Share Posted June 23, 2016 I'm going to up my prediction: 59/41 Remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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