THE KING Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 IF a remain vote is passed then how on earth can Brexiters especially Cabinet Ministers stay in that Party? This isn't just a 'Free vote' it's a fundamental belief in a political ideology in the best way to run our Country and Europe. How can Gove and others possibly go back to work and tell us that the Tories are doing what's best for Britain after spending the last few months telling us that Cameron is doing the that absolute worst for our Economy,safety,jobs,Pensions,Trade etc etc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 If Remain win then Cameron will be desperate to keep Gove in the cabinet. The biggest priority for the Tories will be to try to mend fences within their own ranks however difficult that may be. The smaller the Remain majority then the bigger the task this will be. A 51% to 49% Remain win with Scotland having been the decisive factor would be the best result for exacerbating the deep divisions within the Conservative Party. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 The thing is, because visible and (inexplicably) popular Tory figures are so prominent in this campaign, and will go hard for the leadership, I don't think a potential "remain" win would harm them anything like it harmed the regionalist parties in Scotland post referendum. People predicting that disgruntled Brexiters will rally behind UKIP, leading to their success in the future, are way off IMO. They'll probably do well in by-elections and local elections, but by 2020 the Tories will retain power. It won't be like Scotland, where the SNP were the natural party for Yes supporters to flock behind in the not-too-distant major elections. So I reckon a remain vote would see the rise of the grandstanding Tory Brexit faction (who won't offer another ref, but will make the right grumbling Eurosceptic noises) rather than a substantial rise in UKIP's power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Antlion Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 If Remain win then Cameron will be desperate to keep Gove in the cabinet. The biggest priority for the Tories will be to try to mend fences within their own ranks however difficult that may be. The smaller the Remain majority then the bigger the task this will be. A 51% to 49% Remain win with Scotland having been the decisive factor would be the best result for exacerbating the deep divisions within the Conservative Party. Fingers crossed. I do wonder a bit about Scotland being the decisive factor. In the unlikely event it happened, the scenes would be HILARIOUS. However, if it impelled far right British (read: English) nationalists to claim that Scotland has denied the will of England (unacceptable, whereas the reverse would have been fine) and should be expelled from the UK, I wonder if it would encourage Scottish voters to want to remain just to defy the Daily Mailers. Again, there are advantages and disadvantages to Scotland's independence in every possible result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Willie Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 I do wonder a bit about Scotland being the decisive factor. In the unlikely event it happened, the scenes would be HILARIOUS. However, if it impelled far right British (read: English) nationalists to claim that Scotland has denied the will of England (unacceptable, whereas the reverse would have been fine) and should be expelled from the UK, I wonder if it would encourage Scottish voters to want to remain just to defy the Daily Mailers. Again, there are advantages and disadvantages to Scotland's independence in every possible result. That's my thoughts. I'm still mibbe aye, mibbe naw or no bother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 IF a remain vote is passed then how on earth can Brexiters especially Cabinet Ministers stay in that Party? This isn't just a 'Free vote' it's a fundamental belief in a political ideology in the best way to run our Country and Europe. How can Gove and others possibly go back to work and tell us that the Tories are doing what's best for Britain after spending the last few months telling us that Cameron is doing the that absolute worst for our Economy,safety,jobs,Pensions,Trade etc etc? The polls suggest that over 60% of Tory members and supporters will vote to Leave. Cameron will need Labour and SNP voters to save his job. The next Tory conference could be a bloody spectacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE KING Posted June 21, 2016 Author Share Posted June 21, 2016 The polls suggest that over 60% of Tory members and supporters will vote to Leave. Cameron will need Labour and SNP voters to save his job. The next Tory conference could be a bloody spectacle. True, but it's beyond belief that these political polar opposites could carry on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 True, but it's beyond belief that these political polar opposites could carry on.. Blairites are serving in Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet. Politicians put power and their careers before principle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Tories are, beneath it all, realists. No-one can lead the party relying on Leavers or Remainers only. The majority of the Cabinet and the majority of Conservative MPs are backing Remain. There isn't going to be a coup one way or the other. Apparently the Leavers in the Cabinet will release a statement immediately following the conclusion of the referendum stating that Cameron should stay on, regardless of the outcome. Despite that I don't think Cameron could stay on following a Leave vote and there would be a scramble to replace him. Until recently the two leading candidates would be Osbourne and Boris but I think both are damaged. Osbourne has been a lucky, lucky chancellor with very weak opposition - the inability of Labour to really lay a glove on him is an indictment of their performance. Boris has had a dreadful campaign, he's shifty, insincere and lightweight. I've said elsewhere that Theresa May will take it - she is for Remain but hasn't been hugely involved in the campaign. She's actually not been a particular 'political' minister, she's really got on with running her department and steered clear of the intrigues, unlike Osbourne who can't resist it. Depending on when Cameron stands down there could be a left-field candidate, someone like Stephen Crabb or Sajid Javid, who comes through and grabs the leadership again with a 'new start', 'fresh face' line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Kincardine Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 One that slaps Gove on his idiot arse...though he'd probably enjoy it. He was on 'Today' at 08.10 and I wanted to punch the wireless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erskjne Bridge Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 One that slaps Gove on his idiot arse...though he'd probably enjoy it. He was on 'Today' at 08.10 and I wanted to punch the wireless. Not fascist enough for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bishop Briggs Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Tories are, beneath it all, realists. No-one can lead the party relying on Leavers or Remainers only. The majority of the Cabinet and the majority of Conservative MPs are backing Remain. There isn't going to be a coup one way or the other. Apparently the Leavers in the Cabinet will release a statement immediately following the conclusion of the referendum stating that Cameron should stay on, regardless of the outcome. Despite that I don't think Cameron could stay on following a Leave vote and there would be a scramble to replace him. Until recently the two leading candidates would be Osbourne and Boris but I think both are damaged. Osbourne has been a lucky, lucky chancellor with very weak opposition - the inability of Labour to really lay a glove on him is an indictment of their performance. Boris has had a dreadful campaign, he's shifty, insincere and lightweight. I've said elsewhere that Theresa May will take it - she is for Remain but hasn't been hugely involved in the campaign. She's actually not been a particular 'political' minister, she's really got on with running her department and steered clear of the intrigues, unlike Osbourne who can't resist it. Depending on when Cameron stands down there could be a left-field candidate, someone like Stephen Crabb or Sajid Javid, who comes through and grabs the leadership again with a 'new start', 'fresh face' line. A Remain supporter could not lead the withdrawal negotiations. Any left-field candidate would have to win over the Parliamentary party which votes for the two finalists to go forward to the members' ballot. Gove would be my bet at the moment. Imagine the seethe on here if became PM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Gove, for all the hate he generates, has gone a good job as Secretary of State for Justice, including binning more or less everything Chris Grayling did. He would be a much better choice than Blustering Boris, if such an event were to materialise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Kincardine Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Not fascist enough for you? Eh? Talk me through this. Edited to add: You're incapable of doing so without making a c**t of yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erskjne Bridge Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 You should know all about making a c**t of yourself. Been doing it on here for years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Blairites are serving in Corbyn's Shadow Cabinet. Politicians put power and their careers before principle. Blairites are only serving in the Shadow Cabinet because Corbyn doesn't have the balls to punt them. Because of their respective election processes the leader of the Labour Party is in a stronger position than his/her Tory counterpart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Kincardine Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 One that slaps Gove on his idiot arse...though he'd probably enjoy it. He was on 'Today' at 08.10 and I wanted to punch the wireless. Not fascist enough for you? Eh? Talk me through this. Edited to add: You're incapable of doing so without making a c**t of yourself. You should know all about making a c**t of yourself. Been doing it on here for years! OK so you're another inconsequential fandan. Why do you bother? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erskjne Bridge Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 Seething much? You old Tory drunkard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 21, 2016 Share Posted June 21, 2016 A remain vote will lead to promotions within the cabinet for Gove and Boris I would assume, as Cameron will want to try and unify the party. I know this won't be a popular opinion outside of Tory members, but I'd love to see Michael Gove as PM one day. He's done a great job in Justice at the moment and I find myself agreeing with him on most issues, including this referendum. There was talk a couple of years back that because he's so friendly with Cameron and Osborne that he'd never plan on running and would instead back Osborne when Cameron steps down, but I wonder if this referendum may have changed that. If the result is close, and wounds within the party take a while to heal, I can certainly see the next leadership electing being contested between one remain and one leave Tory. Whilst undoubtedly popular - for reasons I can't understand, personally - with the grassroots, Boris isn't all that loved among fellow MPs and I wonder if MPs backing leave would try and unite behind someone like Gove to get him on the final 2 ballot that goes to party members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted June 22, 2016 Share Posted June 22, 2016 Tories are, beneath it all, realists. No-one can lead the party relying on Leavers or Remainers only. The majority of the Cabinet and the majority of Conservative MPs are backing Remain. There isn't going to be a coup one way or the other. Apparently the Leavers in the Cabinet will release a statement immediately following the conclusion of the referendum stating that Cameron should stay on, regardless of the outcome. Despite that I don't think Cameron could stay on following a Leave vote and there would be a scramble to replace him. Until recently the two leading candidates would be Osbourne and Boris but I think both are damaged. Osbourne has been a lucky, lucky chancellor with very weak opposition - the inability of Labour to really lay a glove on him is an indictment of their performance. Boris has had a dreadful campaign, he's shifty, insincere and lightweight. I've said elsewhere that Theresa May will take it - she is for Remain but hasn't been hugely involved in the campaign. She's actually not been a particular 'political' minister, she's really got on with running her department and steered clear of the intrigues, unlike Osbourne who can't resist it. Depending on when Cameron stands down there could be a left-field candidate, someone like Stephen Crabb or Sajid Javid, who comes through and grabs the leadership again with a 'new start', 'fresh face' line. This is a misreading of the situation, You talk about 'Tory realists' as if the party acts as some sort of rational hive mind; they possess a slender majority of twelve in the House of Commons. Without a convincing mandate more radical elements on either the left of a party (Labour) or the right (Republicans) are more than happy to drive their party's electoral fortunes off of a cliff in order to achieve supposed ideological purity. The current Tory leadership of Cameron and Osborne will not be able to govern against the current of bitterness from Brexiters aimed at both of them. While an organised party coup may be unlikely, a protracted civil war is all but inevitable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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