DeeTillEhDeh Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Did you mean "Can't" in your earlier post? I'm confused [emoji23] IF he refuses, then basically #scenes. I'd expect the SNP to draft the aforementioned bill, the Greens to hopefully support it in Holyrood and absolutely fucking massive tantrums from Lab/Lib/Tory. The referendum would still go ahead imo. However would we get a situation like Catalonia's where loads of No voters refused to recognise it's legitimacy? Or would we get the opposite where the No vote is so angry and energised they vote in massive numbers? Whatever the case, YES needs to be as disciplined as f**k, and prepared to fight seriously dirty. I suppose the next issue, even assuming we somehow win, is Johnson saying "So f**k, we don't recognise the result". I genuinely don't know how we get around that.Fight dirty.We've already had some great ideas for campaign posters that do just that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Will be interesting to see what if anything can be done to stop Boris Johnson from using procedural measures to just run down the clock. He needs to deliver Brexit to keep his party activists happy and get Brexit Party types back into the fold so it is difficult to see what can be done to stop it at this point. The lunatics have taken over the asylum. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kejan Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said: 2 hours ago, MixuFixit said: Nothing radical will happen till we're out the EU and shelves are empty tbh. And people will still sing FOS and Scotland the brave with gusto Aye. We'll maybe see a wee boost to Yes right now a bit like there was immediately after the Brexit vote ; and then folk come accustomed to Boris and then polls to revert back to the 48/52 ''UNION ON A KNIFE EDGE'' over and over?! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 21 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Will be interesting to see what if anything can be done to stop Boris Johnson from using procedural measures to just run down the clock. He needs to deliver Brexit to keep his party activists happy and get Brexit Party types back into the fold so it is difficult to see what can be done to stop it at this point. The lunatics have taken over the asylum. Various indications coming out this morning that BoJo will call for a GE in September which obviously he hopes will give him some kind of a working majority. The fact that Labour are still in self destruct mode will certainly help him get there. Anyone care to predict how the SNP will fare - given that likely, or at least possible scenario of a GE in September? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 13 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: Various indications coming out this morning that BoJo will call for a GE in September which obviously he hopes will give him some kind of a working majority. The fact that Labour are still in self destruct mode will certainly help him get there. Anyone care to predict how the SNP will fare - given that likely, or at least possible scenario of a GE in September? Where are you seeing that? Thought that was the very last thing the Tories want. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Where are you seeing that? Thought that was the very last thing the Tories want. With Labour sitting at 18% in the polls? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kejan Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 17 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: Various indications coming out this morning that BoJo will call for a GE in September which obviously he hopes will give him some kind of a working majority. The fact that Labour are still in self destruct mode will certainly help him get there. Anyone care to predict how the SNP will fare - given that likely, or at least possible scenario of a GE in September? I am no expert - lying in a £6 Matalan hoodie and grey joggers that have seen better days - but if that is correct then going by polling, EU election result, and random chats etc I think the SNP would do fairly well and win most likely 40 to early 50s in seats. I caught a bit of the news earlier and was half-listening (Five Live Through The Night program) and mentioned that Johnson has ruled out a pact with the Brexit Party in any potential election which is surely very good for the SNP - another hardcore Unionist/Brexit party to split the NO/LEAVE MEANS LEAVE minority of Scotland then aye, stick them on there! Chances are a lot of them may end up voting for a Tory Brexit First Johnson party but just like UKIP got 2%, the Brexit Party would still most likely pick up between 5-10% of the vote in Scotland and Farage has said they will be putting up candidates in Welsh, Scottish, UK and any more Euro elections. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: With Labour sitting at 18% in the polls? Changes every day and the Tories aren't doing much better. https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1147609186299199488 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted July 7, 2019 Author Share Posted July 7, 2019 Aye. We'll maybe see a wee boost to Yes right now a bit like there was immediately after the Brexit vote ; and then folk come accustomed to Boris and then polls to revert back to the 48/52 ''UNION ON A KNIFE EDGE'' over and over?! Exactly this. Give it a few months and the Scottish shitebags will be giving it... ah, Boris.. he's a bit of a lad, whilst forgetting his anti Scottish rhetoric. Fluffy and Ruth will be creaming over him too. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotThePars Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 The Tories calling an election based on current polling would be far dumber than calling it two years ago based around the poll numbers. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, welshbairn said: Changes every day and the Tories aren't doing much better. Boris is probably going to win the leadership by a substantial majority and that will put him on a bit of a high. I think it could also be his best chance of winning - taking place as it will before October 31st, and before the UK electorate wake up as to just how fucking stupid he is. If he did reiterate that the UK is leaving the EU on Oct 31st come what may, that will allow him to win back most of the Brexit Party votes. Could be an interesting contest if Corbyn comes out in support of another referendum and maybe even admits he got it wrong by trying to sit on the fence to appease McLuskey. I know that's unlikely - when did a politician ever own up to getting something wrong? There were a few on Andrew Marr and Sophy Ride this morning suggesting that a snap election in September is a distinct possibility - I hope they're right - it could be excellent news for the SNP and will give them a very good indication as to whether they could win Indyref2. Edited July 7, 2019 by ICTJohnboy 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 Various indications coming out this morning that BoJo will call for a GE in September which obviously he hopes will give him some kind of a working majority. The fact that Labour are still in self destruct mode will certainly help him get there. Anyone care to predict how the SNP will fare - given that likely, or at least possible scenario of a GE in September?Latest polls have SNP getting anywhere between 45 and 56 of the 59 constituencies.If they get 50+ I think they will have more than a mandate for IndyRef2 if Johnson goes that route. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 37 minutes ago, NotThePars said: The Tories calling an election based on current polling would be far dumber than calling it two years ago based around the poll numbers. Don't see how they can risk a GE right now, because they could just as easily get wiped out as a mainstream party of governance as win it. They need to get Brexit sorted when that's viewed in purely selfish party-political and career preservation terms as it no doubt will be. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 16 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Don't see how they can risk a GE right now, because they could just as easily get wiped out as a mainstream party of governance as win it. They need to get Brexit sorted when that's viewed in purely selfish party-political and career preservation terms as it no doubt will be. So who do you think would win if ta snap election was called in September? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 19 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: Latest polls have SNP getting anywhere between 45 and 56 of the 59 constituencies. If they get 50+ I think they will have more than a mandate for IndyRef2 if Johnson goes that route. Absolutely. And with a majority of 50+ I would expect them to win Indyref2. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 2 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: So who do you think would win if ta snap election was called in September? No overall majority with a Labour, Lib Dem, SNP partnership forming a Government on the basis of holding a second referendum. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTJohnboy Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 5 minutes ago, welshbairn said: No overall majority with a Labour, Lib Dem, SNP partnership forming a Government on the basis of holding a second referendum. I reckon Labour would have to ditch Corbyn for that to happen - and would Nicola be prepared to put Indyref2 on hold.? I don't think so. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 10 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: So who do you think would win if ta snap election was called in September? Anybody's guess because it's very difficult to predict how both Leave and Remain voters would react to that and a lot of the more marginal constituencies in England would have four possible winners. If I were Boris (involuntary shudder) I would find a way to suspend the sitting of parliament for a few months and run the clock down and hope the EU blinks. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 4 minutes ago, ICTJohnboy said: I reckon Labour would have to ditch Corbyn for that to happen - and would Nicola be prepared to put Indyref2 on hold.? I don't think so. She wouldn't have to, could even make SNP support conditional on backing for a section 30 order. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayrmad Posted July 7, 2019 Share Posted July 7, 2019 16 minutes ago, This time Perthshirebell said: SNP are polling about 10% lower than Yes atm, which is a complete reversal of what it was 4 years ago. It would be foolish at present to equate SNP votes and support for independence. This notion that a good GE performance ( 50+ seats ) would be a mandate for indyref2 is silly. That would only give a mandate that Scots want SNP voices to be heard at westminister. The mandate for Indyref2 is clear since we've voted it through our SP, in exactly the same way we legislated for Indyref1. To respect the parliament we need legal consistency. Were SNP polling at around 50% or more before the 2015 campaign? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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