Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[The_Kincardine]

17 hours ago, Jedi said:

On the 'plus' side, a deal surely takes away any hard border with England, if an Independent Scotland was in the EU. Scotland, as an EU member would have to have the same trading terms with England as Spain, France, or Malta etc.

Well it's the opposite of that.

If there's a second referendum and if it is won by those who want to leave the Union and if iJock goes on to join the EU - and completing this entire process is unlikely to happen before 2035 - then we now know some of the terms under which the relationship between Scotland and rUK will be conducted and it will mean an EU border from the Tweed to the Solway.

The result of Thursday's deal shows, clearly, that an independent Scotland (if it goes on to join the EU) will no longer have free movement of people, good, services and capital within Great Britain - Scotland's overwhelmingly largest market - and this is massively regressive both economically and socially.

This won't worry the Natter zealots but it is an unsellable proposition to the middle of the road voters.

[The_Kincardine]

4 hours ago, Ross. said:

I think the bigger worry for the UK is still to come, when the financial folk who backed Brexit start using the damage caused by Brexit to push for an independent City of London, which has, in my opinion, always been the ultimate aim.

The CoL is a small borough of about 10,000 inhabitants and much of the financial capital etc these days rests either in Tower Hamlets (big clearing banks and much financial/currency broking) or in the City of Westminster (hedge funds, boutique brokerages).  Even the FCA itself is in the Borough of Newham.

The idea of independence for the CoL is bizarre.

[doulikefish]

13 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

Well it's the opposite of that.

If there's a second referendum and if it is won by those who want to leave the Union and if iJock goes on to join the EU - and completing this entire process is unlikely to happen before 2035 - then we now know some of the terms under which the relationship between Scotland and rUK will be conducted and it will mean an EU border from the Tweed to the Solway.

The result of Thursday's deal shows, clearly, that an independent Scotland (if it goes on to join the EU) will no longer have free movement of people, good, services and capital within Great Britain - Scotland's overwhelmingly largest market - and this is massively regressive both economically and socially.

This won't worry the Natter zealots but it is an unsellable proposition to the middle of the road voters.

[sophia]

5 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

Well it's the opposite of that.

Oh no it's not!

Everyone will see over the next few months that a euro border isn't such a big technical deal and only the fidgety fundamentalists will overly concern themselves with the English border.

[The_Kincardine]

1 minute ago, sophia said:

Oh no it's not!

Everyone will see over the next few months that a euro border isn't such a big technical deal and only the fidgety fundamentalists will overly concern themselves with the English border.

iJock in Europe - if it ever comes around - will trade on the same terms that were agreed on Thursday.  This means no freedom of movement for people, goods, services and capital.

The Natter cultists will love it.

[sophia]

1 minute ago, The_Kincardine said:

iJock in Europe - if it ever comes around - will trade on the same terms that were agreed on Thursday.  This means no freedom of movement for people, goods, services and capital.

The Natter cultists will love it.

Aye, ok.

(pfft)

Whatever time you have invested in your latest epithets has been as ill invested as the outputs have been risible but don't let that stop you repeating yourself.

[LongTimeLurker]

8 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

....The result of Thursday's deal shows, clearly, that an independent Scotland (if it goes on to join the EU) will no longer have free movement of people, good, services and capital within Great Britain....

Some of that is a bit dubious given how the RoI is still being treated in Common Travel Area terms. Last time around it was far from clear how Alex's new state would get into the EU making independence a massive leap of faith. Rapid moves towards EU entry by Brussels to get it right up rUK now looks like a credible narrative in the context of a second referendum.

The EU vassal state sort of status the UK is now in on trade of goods under the level playing field principle takes a lot of the fear factor out of what happens on trade, if the new state quickly gets welcomed into the EU fold in economic access terms. Remains to be seen what happens on financial services but the EU has most of the leverage in negotiations there as well.

Think currency is the main remaining Achilles heel for the Yes side but the pound has lost some of its lustre post-Brexit, so it's easier to sell the idea of launching a new one now which was the obvious outcome of independence that Alex wouldn't admit to last time around.

[The_Kincardine]

2 minutes ago, sophia said:

Whatever time you have invested in your latest epithets has been as ill invested as the outputs have been risible but don't let that stop you repeating yourself.

Another empty post from you.  You do them so well.

The true truth is that we now know the terms under which a a future independent Scotland (in Europe) will trade with its overwhelmingly largest market - and the terms under which people in Great Britain can move freely about the country.

It is ugly.

[sophia]

2 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

Another empty post from you.  You do them so well.

The true truth is that we now know the terms under which a a future independent Scotland (in Europe) will trade with its overwhelmingly largest market - and the terms under which people in Great Britain can move freely about the country.

It is ugly.

and in the island of Ireland, do we really think this prophecy of catastrophe is going to play out?

Thanks for conceding that it is inevitable Scotland will take back control previously ceded to Westminster though.

Of course Scotland is in europe, it always has been and the re-established direct lines of communication to Rome, Paris, Dublin etc will cut the inefficiency of of the palace in London.

 

 

[welshbairn]

9 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

Another empty post from you.  You do them so well.

The true truth is that we now know the terms under which a a future independent Scotland (in Europe) will trade with its overwhelmingly largest market - and the terms under which people in Great Britain can move freely about the country.

It is ugly.

A bit like Ireland wouldn't be bad. Free travel and rights with both the UK and the EU. NI have done pretty well already with their close connections to their Southern neighbour, always handy having friends close.

[John Lambies Doos]

Well it's the opposite of that.
If there's a second referendum and if it is won by those who want to leave the Union and if iJock goes on to join the EU - and completing this entire process is unlikely to happen before 2035 - then we now know some of the terms under which the relationship between Scotland and rUK will be conducted and it will mean an EU border from the Tweed to the Solway.
The result of Thursday's deal shows, clearly, that an independent Scotland (if it goes on to join the EU) will no longer have free movement of people, good, services and capital within Great Britain - Scotland's overwhelmingly largest market - and this is massively regressive both economically and socially.
This won't worry the Natter zealots but it is an unsellable proposition to the middle of the road voters.

Scotland will join the common travel area with rUK just like ROI is currently
There will be scaremongering but that's what will happen [emoji6]

[The_Kincardine]

3 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Some of that is a bit dubious given how the RoI is still being treated in Common Travel Area terms. Last time around it was far from clear how Alex's new state would get into the EU making independence a massive leap of faith. Rapid moves towards EU entry by Brussels to get it right up rUK now looks like a credible narrative in the context of a second referendum.

The EU vassal state sort of status the UK is now in on trade of goods under the level playing field principle takes a lot of the fear factor out of what happens on trade, if the new state quickly gets welcomed into the EU fold in economic access terms. Remains to be seen what happens on financial services but the EU has most of the leverage in negotiations there as well.

This is all 'wish and a prayer' stuff - which is a bit disappointing coming from you.

Dealing in facts, if there is an independent Scotland in Europe, then the only certainty we have is that there will be a hard EU border between Scotland and England and this is a rubbish idea.

As for financial services - the removal of 'passporting rights' would deal a blow but it isn't a game-changer and is by no means a given. I suspect a deal will be done which will see some jobs/functions transferred 'over there' though.

The alternative would be the EU financial services market setting itself up in competition to the UK and, given our liquidity and prowess is a good order of magnitude higher than that of the rest of the EU combined, I doubt they would want it.  The idea that, 'the EU has most of the leverage' is risible.

[The_Kincardine]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

A bit like Ireland wouldn't be bad. Free travel and rights with both the UK and the EU. NI have done pretty well already with their close connections to their Southern neighbour, always handy having friends close.

 

1 minute ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Scotland will join the common travel area with rUK just like ROI is currently
There will be scaremongering but that's what will happen

That isn't in the gift of iJock and it would be madness to base a political campaign on it.

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, The_Kincardine said:

Dealing in facts, if there is an independent Scotland in Europe, then the only certainty we have is that there will be a hard EU border between Scotland and England and this is a rubbish idea.

No hard border between Ireland and NI.

[The_Kincardine]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

No hard border between Ireland and NI.

Again, this isn't in the gift of iJock.  I prefer to deal in what we know and Thur's deal says otherwise wrt Scotland and England.

What happened on Xmas Eve rendered the idea of Scottish Independence a fairytale notion for the zealots and the xenophobes.

Edited December 26, 2020 by The_Kincardine

[IrishBhoy]

7 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said:

Strong contribution.
I'm wondering wether your rebuttal to a sensible post has anything to do with the name of poster.

To be fair I was basing that point on nothing particular, more a feeling that this will be something exploited by the more unsavoury members of society. I still think there’s a good chance tensions will rise with regards to the reunification of Ireland, actually I think it’s inevitable. 

[The_Kincardine]

9 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Is this actually true re: liquidity? 

London has about half the world's foreign exchange and is, by some measure, the largest liquid market and dwarfs that of the rest of the EU combined.

Yes, it's true.

Another underappreciated truth about the UK is that our law firms vie with those of the US when it comes to exercising cross-border global transactions on a massive scale and the EU would find it tricky to replicate this.

So the idea of withdrawal of 'passport rights' is a serious one, of course, but it isn't a game changer.  Outside of the US large firms have nowhere to go when it comes to raising capital or having the expertise to manage transactions through.

That there would be an easy transition from London to Frankfurt or Paris is simply nonsense.

Edited December 26, 2020 by The_Kincardine

[LongTimeLurker]

6 minutes ago, The_Kincardine said:

... The idea that, 'the EU has most of the leverage' is risible.

Without unhindered access to the EU the sheer scale of the UK's financial services market is seriously bloated relative to the size of the host economy.

[The_Kincardine]

14 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Without unhindered access to the EU the sheer scale of the UK's financial services market is seriously bloated relative to the size of the host economy.

It is now as it stands.  Withdrawal of 'passporting' as I have said several times, would be a dent.  I have also mentioned liquidity and have also mentioned legal expertise.

There is not a hope in hell that the EU could replicate what is available in London for global firms any time soon which is why I think there will be an inevitable deal done.  The truth of the capital base of London, its liquidity and the global reach of its law firms means that your assertion that, "the EU has most of the leverage in negotiations" is more than a bit of a stretch.

Edited December 26, 2020 by The_Kincardine

[Ross.]

1 hour ago, The_Kincardine said:

The CoL is a small borough of about 10,000 inhabitants and much of the financial capital etc these days rests either in Tower Hamlets (big clearing banks and much financial/currency broking) or in the City of Westminster (hedge funds, boutique brokerages).  Even the FCA itself is in the Borough of Newham.

The idea of independence for the CoL is bizarre.

I didn’t mean the square mile specifically as a geographical area. I used that as a general term for the financial sector within London, forgetting the fact that on the internet, punctiliousness is everything. I reckon the folk I deal with in the London are probably split around 50/50 between Bishopsgate and Canary Wharf, for what it’s worth on that point.

When Brexit fails to fix the issues the UK is facing, regionalisation and a shift towards some form of federalism will be the next step. Special trade zones or the like will be spread across the country. The financial sector won’t be slow in demanding their own.