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Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.


John Lambies Doos

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Just now, welshbairn said:

Don't think it will but is that why the pound went up? Just the delay?

I think most people expected this vote to go the way it did. The change isn’t big enough to suggest any major shift in long term confidence.

If the vote of no confidence does carry, I can see a cross party “Brexit government” type affair being proposed, one extension to article 50 and then shit or get off the pot being the ultimatum.

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National unity government with the Labour Right, Lib Dems and Tory Remainers. Cooper or Cable as DPM and Javid or May as leader. A bourgeois revolution to steer us through Brexit with a minimum of fuss. Millions of Guardian columnists kept in jobs doing the heavy lifting of selling it to Remainers and Brexiteers alike.

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Still reckon that after Article 50 is extended that the EU will come back with some vague legal rhetoric on the Irish backstop, which will allow the DUP to witter on about 'sovereignty' being restored, to get them onside, and that, coupled with enough Lab and Tories backing it, in addition to some 'marvellous' trading relationship with the EU suddenly appearing, will lead to a May sponsored deal passing the Commons sometime around July.

Also, does Corbyn not face calls for his resignation after he fails with a VONC, and is still unable to distinguish himself from the Tories in this whole farce?, given that he still can't lay a glove on the worst UK govt in history.

Edited by Jedi
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Still reckon that after Article 50 is extended that the EU will come back with some vague legal rhetoric on the Irish backstop, which will allow the DUP to witter on about 'sovereignty' being restored, to get them onside, and that, coupled with enough Lab and Tories backing it, in addition to some 'marvellous' trading relationship with the EU suddenly appearing, will lead to a May sponsored deal passing the Commons sometime around July.
Also, does Corbyn not face calls for his resignation after he fails with a VONC, and is still unable to distinguish himself from the Tories in this whole farce?, given that he still can't lay a glove on the worst UK govt in history.
Brexit ain't happening m8
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9 minutes ago, Ross. said:

I think most people expected this vote to go the way it did. The change isn’t big enough to suggest any major shift in long term confidence.

If the vote of no confidence does carry, I can see a cross party “Brexit government” type affair being proposed, one extension to article 50 and then shit or get off the pot being the ultimatum.

No, I got 1.15 euros when May announced the deal, went down to 1.10 in December and now it's back to 1.13. I don't think the VOC has a chance of carrying, there's nothing in it for Tory rebels on either side and the DUP have said they'll be LOYAL. And there's even less chance of an election being carried before May is replaced. Instability and unpredictability have been already factored in.

Edited by welshbairn
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Just now, NotThePars said:

The Labour Right want the VoNC to force a People’s Vote. I suspect they forced the hand on the vote as they’re the biggest beneficiaries of it losing.

If Corbyn hadn't called it May said she'd accept it from the other opposition parties, that's what forced him.

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2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

No, I got 1.15 euros when May announced the deal, went down to 1.10 in December and now it's back to 1.13. I don't think the VOC has a chance of carrying, there's nothing in it for Tory rebels on either side and the DUP have said they'll be LOYAL. And there's even less chance of an election being carried before May is replaced. Instability and unpredictability have been already factored in.

I’m undecided on how it will go at the moment. A lot will depend on how bullish the pro Brexit MP’s are. If there are enough of them who think they can get Brexit over the line and risk being seen as national heroes, then there is a chance it will carry. Entirely reliant on Conservative MP’s voting to bring down a Conservative government though, which seems incredibly unlikely.

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5 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:
7 minutes ago, Jedi said:
Still reckon that after Article 50 is extended that the EU will come back with some vague legal rhetoric on the Irish backstop, which will allow the DUP to witter on about 'sovereignty' being restored, to get them onside, and that, coupled with enough Lab and Tories backing it, in addition to some 'marvellous' trading relationship with the EU suddenly appearing, will lead to a May sponsored deal passing the Commons sometime around July.
Also, does Corbyn not face calls for his resignation after he fails with a VONC, and is still unable to distinguish himself from the Tories in this whole farce?, given that he still can't lay a glove on the worst UK govt in history.

Brexit ain't happening m8

I'm not so sure. Couple of weeks ago, thought that a 2nd ref looked likely, but now think enough Lab MP's actually want Brexit. EU are still probably quite keen to get shot of the UK, understandably, so they could still come back with some rehashed 'deal' which commands enough support. 'No deal' looks dead, as the Lords have already blocked that. Just can't see a 2nd Ref getting through the Commons.

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1 minute ago, Ross. said:

I’m undecided on how it will go at the moment. A lot will depend on how bullish the pro Brexit MP’s are. If there are enough of them who think they can get Brexit over the line and risk being seen as national heroes, then there is a chance it will carry. Entirely reliant on Conservative MP’s voting to bring down a Conservative government though, which seems incredibly unlikely.

Best chance of a hard brexit is by stalling and slowing down the process, anything dramatic like forcing a loss in the VOC will inevitably lead to an extension of Article 50 which is the last thing Brexiteers want. 

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Guest Bob Mahelp
14 minutes ago, Ross. said:

I think most people expected this vote to go the way it did. The change isn’t big enough to suggest any major shift in long term confidence.

 

Markets love stability, and the fact that sterling didn't collapse 2 hours ago means that traders believe that this vote makes no deal more unlikely. 

It's more a reaction rather than a prediction I suspect.  The arse could still fall out of the pound tomorrow.

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