Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Tibbermoresaint]

There's been a strange lack of reaction from the EU27 this evening. 

It only takes one of the 27 to object for there to be no extension of the deadline. I wonder if patience has finally been exhausted somewhere and there won't be an extension. After all what do they have to gain by postponing it for a short time? 

[Donathan]

There's been a strange lack of reaction from the EU27 this evening. 
It only takes one of the 27 to object for there to be no extension of the deadline. I wonder if patience has finally been exhausted somewhere and there won't be an extension. After all what do they have to gain by postponing it for a short time? 

If the extension is rejected, that means it’s a no deal, which is a disaster situation for the EU as well as for the UK. An extension will be granted almost certainly, although the EU will be hoping that if that’s the case it will either be to facilitate some kind of referendum, or a general election.

[Tibbermoresaint]

2 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 

If the extension is rejected, that means it’s a no deal, which is a disaster situation for the EU as well as for the UK. An extension will be granted almost certainly, although the EU will be hoping that if that’s the case it will either be to facilitate some kind of referendum, or a general election.

 

How can it be a no deal if Parliament has voted against leaving without a deal? 

[Londonwell]

7 minutes ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

How can it be a no deal if Parliament has voted against leaving without a deal? 

Because you would actually have to pass legislation to avoid a no deal.

At this point in time it is the only legal certainty regarding potential outcomes.

Edited February 27, 2019 by Londonwell

[Tibbermoresaint]

Just now, Londonwell said:

Because you would actually have to pass legislation to avoid a no deal.

At this point in time it is the legal certainty regarding potential outcomes.

You wouldn't have to pass legislation, simply amend existing legislation.

If it is going to be no deal what is the benefit to the EU27 in delaying further? The uncertainty is acting as a drag on everything so if there must be a hit why not take it now rather than later? The EU27 will also be keeping an eye on domestic electoral cycles and for some it may be better to get the pain over sooner rather than later.

[Donathan]

How can it be a no deal if Parliament has voted against leaving without a deal? 

We can vote against leaving without a deal, but if the EU then reject an extension then we’re out without a deal anyway unless May revokes article 50 altogether.

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

You wouldn't have to pass legislation, simply amend existing legislation.

If it is going to be no deal what is the benefit to the EU27 in delaying further? The uncertainty is acting as a drag on everything so if there must be a hit why not take it now rather than later? The EU27 will also be keeping an eye on domestic electoral cycles and for some it may be better to get the pain over sooner rather than later.

The UK have yet to ask what they want from the EU27, including a potential extension to A50. The EU27 are just trying to do other important things while getting annoyed why the UK can't just say what they're after. We have to ask for an extension before they give it.

[Londonwell]

9 minutes ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

You wouldn't have to pass legislation, simply amend existing legislation.

If it is going to be no deal what is the benefit to the EU27 in delaying further? The uncertainty is acting as a drag on everything so if there must be a hit why not take it now rather than later? The EU27 will also be keeping an eye on domestic electoral cycles and for some it may be better to get the pain over sooner rather than later.

I don’t disagree with what you say but the fact remains that no deal is the default option, you asked how this was if parliament expressed its will against it. The answer is because it’s the default option if all else fails. Despite this it’s probably still the least likely option of all. Anyone who is not a complete nut job will move hell and high water to avoid such a scenario.

[Tibbermoresaint]

2 minutes ago, Donathan said:

 

We can vote against leaving without a deal, but if the EU then reject an extension then we’re out without a deal anyway unless May revokes article 50 altogether.

 

Yes, fair point. I'd forgotten that our notice period expires irrespective of domestic legislation.

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

The UK have yet to ask what they want from the EU27, including a potential extension to A50. The EU27 are just trying to do other important things while getting annoyed why the UK can't just say what they're after. We have to ask for an extension before they give it.

If we ask for it one wonders how long it would take the EU27 to agree a common position. If they agree an extension it would only be a short one.

[Tibbermoresaint]

9 minutes ago, Londonwell said:

I don’t disagree with what you say but the fact remains that no deal is the default option, you asked how this was if parliament expressed its will against it. The answer is because it’s the default option if all else fails. Despite this it’s probably still the least likely option of all. Anyone who is not a complete nut job will move hell and high water to avoid such a scenario.

Sure, but if the agreed deal isn't acceptable, no deal is unthinkable and the EU27 are only willing to grant a short extension where does that leave us and them?

[welshbairn]

11 minutes ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

Yes, fair point. I'd forgotten that our notice period expires irrespective of domestic legislation.

If we ask for it one wonders how long it would take the EU27 to agree a common position. If they agree an extension it would only be a short one.

The EU have been hinting at the offer of a long and fulfilling extension, it's May who has being talking about a short and stubby one.

[Tibbermoresaint]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

The EU have been hinting at the offer of a long and fulfilling extension, it's May who has being talking about a short and stubby one.

But do we know that every single one of the EU27 would accept a long and fulfilling extension? 

And what would such an extension achieve? A General Election? That would be pretty pointless if both main parties stood on a pro-Brexit platform. 

[NotThePars]

Forgive me if I’m
wrong but surely if we don’t agree on any exiting deal and we don’t legislate for an extension that’s agreed by the EU27 surely we crash out with No Deal.
People might say there’s no majority for No Deal but all that matters is that we don’t find an alternative.

[welshbairn]

18 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

Forgive me if I’m
wrong but surely if we don’t agree on any exiting deal and we don’t legislate for an extension that’s agreed by the EU27 surely we crash out with No Deal.
People might say there’s no majority for No Deal but all that matters is that we don’t find an alternative.

That's true, if the EU don't agree to an extension then we're fucked, but so are they and their poxy single market and solidarity with Ireland. It's May's deal or a general election imo.

[Detournement]

6 hours ago, Donathan said:

 

 

 

The big question ends up being whether the EU will agree to extend article 50 without either a GE or a 2nd referendum.

 

 

Given that she has plotted this with Tusk and Juncker in Cairo then it's obvious they will agree.

[Paco]

Surely the House would have the majority to vote No Confidence in May if No Deal was looking likely via a default? At which stage she’s out on her arse, some sort of temporary minority government extends or if necessary unilaterally revokes Article 50, and we have a General Election essentially around the sole issue of Brexit.

 

[Londonwell]

7 hours ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

Sure, but if the agreed deal isn't acceptable, no deal is unthinkable and the EU27 are only willing to grant a short extension where does that leave us and them?

If you read my previous posts I think a short extension with no feasible plan to work through the situation is madness, as you have previously pointed out also.

I think we’re at the crisis management stage where they’re something/anything to avoid disaster. But in answer to your question, f**k knows mate but it does leave us all considerably worse off. 

[John Lambies Doos]

Gibraltar waiting in the long grass

[John Lambies Doos]

May's playing a game here to ensure brexit will be canned. The EU are in with her here and timelines, soundbites will be delivered until the only option is to remain. We will get to a stage where there will be a vote on no deal Vs a lengthy extension(not a short one). Extension will win and a referendum will ensue. This won't happen immediately, perhaps after another year.(2020). There will be an argument that's it's 4 yrs now since the last one, so will of people could have changed. Remain will win at a canter, and all this will be swept under carpet.

[welshbairn]

6 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

May's playing a game here to ensure brexit will be canned. The EU are in with her here and timelines, soundbites will be delivered until the only option is to remain. We will get to a stage where there will be a vote on no deal Vs a lengthy extension(not a short one). Extension will win and a referendum will ensue. This won't happen immediately, perhaps after another year.(2020). There will be an argument that's it's 4 yrs now since the last one, so will of people could have changed. Remain will win at a canter, and all this will be swept under carpet.

If she wanted a referendum she could easily have called it when Parliament overwhelmingly threw out her deal, and just said it has to be sent back to the people. Her 2 biggies are getting rid of freedom of movement and being under the jurisdiction of the European courts. I don't think she wants a hard brexit but I think she'd rather that than remain.