Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Granny Danger]

12 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

There is no majority at Westminster for a remain/leave 2nd referendum. 

People need to get rid of the idea that it's even a possibility. 

There’s not a majority for any other alternative either which makes it still a possibility.

 

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

Just now, Tibbermoresaint said:

What is there a majority for?

Making an absolute kh*nt of everything. 

[BawWatchin]

1 minute ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

What is there a majority for?

There's a majority in Scotland for remaining. That's all I can think of.

[welshbairn]

12 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

There is no majority at Westminster for a remain/leave 2nd referendum. 

People need to get rid of the idea that it's even a possibility. 

It would only happen as last minute alternative to a hard brexit imo, May's deal or Remain. I think a General Election is more likely.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

Just now, Granny Danger said:

There’s not a majority for any other alternative either which makes it still a possibility.

 

Theoretically, yes. 

But you would need every single Labour MP, and a number of Tory MPs, to vote for it. 

The chances of that happening are so slim to be pretty much impossible. 

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, Tibbermoresaint said:

What is there a majority for?

Maybe something close to what Corbyn's finally proposing, a bit like Norway plus, but that's just a slightly shittier version on staying in.

[welshbairn]

5 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

Theoretically, yes. 

But you would need every single Labour MP, and a number of Tory MPs, to vote for it. 

The chances of that happening are so slim to be pretty much impossible. 

You'd need about 15* more Tories voting for it than Labourites voting against. Unlikely but not impossible, especially if the shit was about to hit the fan.

*unresearched guesstimate

Edited February 26, 2019 by welshbairn

[Boo Khaki]

21 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

There is no majority at Westminster for a remain/leave 2nd referendum. 

People need to get rid of the idea that it's even a possibility. 

Indeed, which is why I think a far more likely scenario with regard to remaining in the EU, is that May goes asking for an extension, the EU will only countenance a long extension of 2 years or so, and in that time, someone finally throws in the towel and admits that any sort of negotiated Brexit is impossible, leaving will do irreparable damage to the UK in any and all circumstances, and as a result, the responsible thing to do is simply revoke Article 50, ignore the complaining, and get on with it. 

How exactly that comes about and who exactly makes the decisions is up in the air, but I think it's more likely than Parliament agreeing to any of the outcomes being discussed currently. Possibly a GE, coalition government, and an as yet unknown PM. 

[Detournement]

The major question is does the A50 extension vote involve completely removing an exit date from UK legislation?

 

[Granny Danger]

8 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

Theoretically, yes. 

But you would need every single Labour MP, and a number of Tory MPs, to vote for it. 

The chances of that happening are so slim to be pretty much impossible. 

If there’s a further delay I can see the business community being more vocal than previously; they have tried with subtle warnings, I can see them becoming far less subtle.  If there’s an extension with no further solution in sight I can see some ‘moderate’ Tories changing their position of even abstaining to allow a second referendum to go ahead.

 

[welshbairn]

2 minutes ago, Detournement said:

The major question is does the A50 extension vote involve completely removing an exit date from UK legislation?

 

I'd imagine they'd have to make amendment to the EU Withdrawal Act to make it happen, which would just replace 29th March to the new date.

[Savage Henry]

As said any 2nd Ref proposal can still be voted down by Tories/DUP as a block. It would have to be a 3 question ref...'May's deal', 'No Deal' or 'Remain' in any case. Labour's amendment for customs union etc will be shot down.
If it proposed as a choice this week, still expect it be ruled out in any case. Meanwhile the Maybot will reach March 12th with a 'did I say March 12th? actually meant March 27th (or whatever) for a meaningful vote, need more time to speak to the EU, blah blah'.....get as close to the wire as possible so that it is either her deal or no deal. 
 

Can’t imagine a three choice referendum with two of the choices being pretty much the same thing being a goer.

No deal only appeals to the certifiably insane, and although that makes up swathes of the electorate, the majority of the Commons still have their marbles.

[Savage Henry]

 
How can you communicate with those who just want to see fewer foreigners in the UK? 
Sadly there are significant numbers who vehemently believe that was what they voted for - whatever the cost to the country's economy. They are not going to be easily placated.
 

Not even that, but how do you communicate with those who live in Spain and just want to see fewer foreigners in the UK?

[Granny Danger]

1 minute ago, Savage Henry said:

 

Can’t imagine a three choice referendum with two of the choices being pretty much the same thing being a goer.

No deal only appeals to the certifiably insane, and although that makes up swathes of the electorate, the majority of the Commons still have their marbles.

 

This is a genuinely important point.  It is MPs, including ones I can’t stand, that are stopping us walking off a cliff.

That said, if another referendum was held tomorrow Remain would win.  It boils my piss to hear folk say a second referendum would be undemocratic or an affront to democracy when what they really mean is that a sufficient number of folk have come to their senses.

The traitor group are equally culpable, “give people a second vote, just not for who their MP should be”.  I’d love to see these c***s go down I need flames in a snap GE.

 

[Cerberus]

Interesting wording from the BBC. A "fail" is a no vote to a Hard Brexit.

Why does a fail on her deal, a No Deal fail and a Extension fail mean the UK leaves without a Deal?
Surely the only alternative is to remain as they can't do anything else.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

If there was a 3 option referendum, I’d have to think it would use the alternative vote. I also think very few people would rank May’s deal as their 3rd option so it would probably end up winning

2 stage referendum.

Stage 1 No deal vs May's deal

Stage 2 Stage 1 winner vs Remain

Or

Stage 1 Leave vs Remain

Stage 2 No deal vs May's deal

[Detournement]

10 minutes ago, Cerberus said:

Interesting wording from the BBC. A "fail" is a no vote to a Hard Brexit.

Why does a fail on her deal, a No Deal fail and a Extension fail mean the UK leaves without a Deal?
Surely the only alternative is to remain as they can't do anything else.

Because it's already in law that we leave on the 29th of March.

So something actually has to pass to over ride that.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

We should wildly celebrate May's death when it happens, much like many did with Thatcher.

She's just a shite Margaret Thatcher though.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Maybe something close to what Corbyn's finally proposing, a bit like Norway plus, but that's just a slightly shittier version on staying in.

That should have happened over 2 years ago - too late now IMHO.

[welshbairn]

May's deal just means they'll keep arguing for the next 2-10 years, it's much the same as an extension except we don't have a voice in the EU, a bit like Norway plus. The final settlement has the potential of pleasing each faction, just not with the same settlement. The ERG will vote for it if they worry the Remainers will win, and vice versa. I bet her deal goes through, it just means kicking the can down the road a bit which is the British thing when they've sworn to do something that later looks really silly.

Edited February 26, 2019 by welshbairn