Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Granny Danger]

4 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

What I got from the Today programme this morning is that there's nothing new, just regurgitation of what's been said before, and Rees Mogg saying it sounds like a crock of shite but if the DUP cave the ERG probably will too, and if they don't, they won't. Hardly a publicity machine for May. Meanwhile in the other media..

My point, which I thought was clear, is that not everyone actually listens to the Today programme or reads the articles; most folk don’t.  

Many just glance at the headlines and the BBC website is bad at simplifying them in May’s favour.  

I am surprised by The Daily Express position; they are genuine Brexiteers who should realise that nothing has changed.  However they are apparently willing to support any deal however bad it is.  It will be interesting to see if the DUP/ERG follow suit.

[Detournement]

If they do vote for it i'll give it about 5 minutes before JRM is declaring parliament is soveriegn and can leave the backstop any time it chooses and the DUP are writing to the the European Court of Human RIghts.

At this point it would be mad to vote it down if you are a Brexiteer. You don't get everything you want but you completely demolish the opposition.

 

[welshbairn]

12 minutes ago, Detournement said:

If they do vote for it i'll give it about 5 minutes before JRM is declaring parliament is soveriegn and can leave the backstop any time it chooses and the DUP are writing to the the European Court of Human RIghts.

At this point it would be mad to vote it down if you are a Brexiteer. You don't get everything you want but you completely demolish the opposition.

 

The selling point is that it offers something for everyone, even Ken Clarke is backing it. They haven't even started talking about the final settlement so after withdrawal it's all to play for, managed WTO to rejoining the EU and everything in between.

[John Lambies Doos]

These backstop guarantee's remind me of

[Sooky]

So, in essence, the AG will alone decide whether or not the deal passes tonight.

Seems like DUP/ERG won’t budge without his legal assurances.

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

These backstop guarantee's remind me of

In that it was put together by right wing fascists and only right wing idiots would believe it?

[harry94]

51 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The selling point is that it offers something for everyone, even Ken Clarke is backing it.

Where are you seeing this?

 

[Adamski]

Just now, harry94 said:

Where are you seeing this?

 

Said it on Newsnight last night.

[welshbairn]

4 minutes ago, harry94 said:

Where are you seeing this?

 

Ken Clarke has said he's backing it in every debate, for the reasons I mentioned, that the final settlement is all to play for and it rules out a hard brexit on March 29th. Although he also advocates revoking A50.

Edited March 12, 2019 by welshbairn

[doulikefish]

Its crazy that the Prime Minister first call is to Arlene Foster,not her cabinet or mps but a lady that is on an extended holiday because of heating bills

[jamieson87]

It's a No from Cox.

 

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/785188/190312_-_Legal_Opinion_on_Joint_Instrument_and_Unilateral_Declaration_co..___2_.pdf

[harry94]

3 minutes ago, Adamski said:

Said it on Newsnight last night.

 

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

Ken Clarke has said he's backing it in every debate, for the reasons I mentioned, that the final settlement is all to play for and it rules out a hard brexit. Although he also advocates revoking A50.

Fair dos.

It'll all become clearer this evening but I still think it's going to be a really difficult ask for the government to get through and I still think it'll be at least a 80 majority against.

This is the only sort of agreement possible with the red lines that were laid out and the concerns that caused MPs to not vote for it haven't been addressed in any material way that I can see (the backstop stuff that has been mentioned was in the original WA, it also doesn't do anything). It wasn't like the deal was rejected on these wee issues and MPs were rejecting a bit of refinement, they were publicly backing all of the fundamentals to be ripped up.

I don't know what Geoffrey Cox will say this afternoon but I think that it'd be very very difficult for him to not have a line in there that states the same concerns. Once that's there, I think that the backstop members, who in their heart want an excuse to back the government, won't see there to be a route to a u-turn. Maybe the soft Brexit people might go for it at the late stage as the clock ticks down but it's a huge deficit to make up.

[welshbairn]

Codpiece revealed, May's fucked unless the ERG and DUP ignore the back stop red herring and vote for it to avoid extending A50 and a likely softer brexit or public vote. There won't be enough Labour rebel votes to make up for them.

Quote

In my letter of 13 November 2018, I advised that the protocol [ie, the backstop] would endure indefinitely in international law and could not be brought to an end in the absence of a subsequent agreement. This would remain the case even if parties were still negotiating many years later, and even if the parties believed that talks have clearly broken down and there was no prospect of a future relationship agreement.

I also advised that in the specific case that situation was due to the EU’s want of good faith and best endeavours, because of the difficulties of proof and the egregious nature of the conduct that would be required to establish a breach by the EU of those obligations, it would be highly unlikely that the United Kingdom could take advantage of the remedies available to it for such a breach under the withdrawal agreement.

I now consider that the legally binding provisions of the joint instrument and the content of the unilateral declaration reduce the risk that the United Kingdom could be indefinitely and involuntarily detained within the Protocol’s provisions at least in so far as that situation had been brought about by the bad faith or want of best endeavours of the EU.

It may be thought that if both parties deploy a sincere desire to reach agreement and the necessary diligence, flexibility and goodwill implied by the amplified duties set out in the joint instrument, it is highly unlikely that a satisfactory subsequent agreement to replace the protocol will not be concluded. But as I have previously advised, that is a political judgment, which, given the mutual incentives of the parties and the available options and competing risks, I remain strongly of the view it is right to make.

However, the legal risk remains unchanged that if through no such demonstrable failure of either party, but simply because of intractable differences, that situation does arise, the United Kingdom would have, at least while the fundamental circumstances remained the same, no internationally lawful means of exiting the Protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement.

 

Edited March 12, 2019 by welshbairn

[Sooky]

In a document with 19 points, “the legal risk remains unchanged” are the only 5 important words.

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/legal-opinion-on-joint-instrument-and-unilateral-declaration-concerning-the-withdrawal-agreement

[SweeperDee]

I reckon it’s game over for May.

[Paco]

Yep, if the DUP/ERG care about what they claim to care about, they’ll reject it. No questions asked.

BBC push notification led with the ‘reduces risk’ line, which was somewhat odd. May should be dead in the water, if the DUP/ERG stick to their ‘principles’. 50/50, for me.

[jamieson87]

5 minutes ago, Paco said:

Yep, if the DUP/ERG care about what they claim to care about, they’ll reject it. No questions asked.

BBC push notification led with the ‘reduces risk’ line, which was somewhat odd. May should be dead in the water, if the DUP/ERG stick to their ‘principles’. 50/50, for me.

I would think it is almost certain they will stick to their principles. They would have to walk back all their comments from the past few months, which would be very hard to do, while retaining any ounce of self respect.

Their actions will come with consequences though, some of which they will not like. 

[renton]

4 minutes ago, Paco said:

Yep, if the DUP/ERG care about what they claim to care about, they’ll reject it. No questions asked.

BBC push notification led with the ‘reduces risk’ line, which was somewhat odd. May should be dead in the water, if the DUP/ERG stick to their ‘principles’. 50/50, for me.

To quote Nick Robinson:

Quote

“Now I wasn’t sent to cover that story, but I remember sitting in my office in Westminster watching our five o’clock news bulletin and seeing this very nuanced piece.

I wonder if he was really that subtle. Part of my job, part of the job of being political editor at the BBC, is decoding what people in public life said.

“Making it real for people, making it comprehensible. And frankly I don’t think we were doing a very good job at that.

”

But yeah, you'd assume May would still struggle to pass this, albeit the 'reduced risk' might provide sufficient cover for a number of MPs who are desperate for the deal to pass, but not wanting to blow their political capital on a deal that leaves the UK in a bind. I reckon there probably is enough MPs who'd pass the deal if they thought someone else would go first through the lobby. A trickle could become a landslide, even with Corbyn whipping against, Watson and his mob might not.

[Sooky]

I struggle to under the ERG position, surely this is going to be the hardest Brexit they get? Parliament will never allow no deal, so any future Brexit deal will surely be softer.

[Paco]

I would think it is almost certain they will stick to their principles. They would have to walk back all their comments from the past few months, which would be very hard to do, while retaining any ounce of self respect.
Their actions will come with consequences though, some of which they will not like. 

They walked back most of what they said in the referendum campaign, and have shown willingness to simply break treaty agreements before - ‘don’t pay the EU a penny’, and so on. They might vote it through and attempt to get an idiot like Johnson or Gove in charge to give them the Brexit they really want. Might be a better punt for them than risking an extension and possible GE/referendum.