Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Dunning1874]

I know there have been countless instances of people saying 'she can't survive this', and indeed it seems every member of the cabinet is now impervious to scandals that would have ended careers a decade ago forcing resignations, but surely, surely this means May can't make it past January.

If she now flips to accepting that the UK as a whole has to remain in the Single Market and customs union - the only way the Irish border issue is ever going to be resolved to the satisfaction of both the ROI and DUP - then the Tory Eurosceptics will eat her alive. They'd be willing to take the risk of the government collapsing and an election despite current polling to keep a Hard Brexit alive, and there's obviously a chance they could force her out as leader without the resultant Tory civil war leading to Parliament calling another election.

Of course, had she initially proposed staying in the Single Market all along she could have had support for that position and had no headache over NI, with anyone arguing for withdrawing from absolutely everything still seen as a fringe nutter, but instead she doubled down on a Hard Brexit she doesn't even believe in and now if she goes back on leaving the Single Market the right have a position of strength to cry that it's a betrayal, it's failing to honour the will of the people, etc, when of course it would be no such thing. The ballot paper didn't have any mention of leaving the Single Market or Customs Union.

If she completes her capitulation to the DUP's position - regardless of what happens now Labour have to produce campaign posters with May in Arlene Foster's pocket - and actually tries to propose a hard border, the EU and ROI will laugh her out of negotiations and we're genuinely in a no deal scenario, which would surely lead to Remain Tories launching their own mutiny against her and the Tories will be torn apart that way; again, a general election might not even happen if they force her out and while this faction of the Tories are considerably less certain to take a risk based on principles v polling, there could surely be enough of them to topple her. The economic catastrophe that would cause for the UK coupled with the threat of instability in NI for the few who ever bother to pay attention to it should be enough.

Alternatively, she reverts to the border deal she was supposed to be announcing which the EU & ROI are happy with and cuts the DUP loose, saying she'll govern without a confidence and supply arrangement. This keeps her as PM longer but doesn't stop her being a shambles who is only clinging on. It's not outwith the realms of possibility that this'll work for getting a Brexit Bill through - in this scenario with the Irish border issue resolved, would Corbyn be willing to whip Labour MPs to vote in favour of Brexit? He might just be mental enough to follow Hard Brexit regardless of the fact he could topple the Tories by voting against. I'd like to think he wouldn't be that daft, but his attitude to Brexit votes so far is concerning. Regardless, even if they did get it through without the DUP, she's left as a lame duck for the rest of the legislative agenda. What could they hope to get through without the DUP's support, if they even ever get round to coming up with some legislation?

Stick a fork in this government already.

[Granny Danger]

19 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

I know there have been countless instances of people saying 'she can't survive this', and indeed it seems every member of the cabinet is now impervious to scandals that would have ended careers a decade ago forcing resignations, but surely, surely this means May can't make it past January.

If she now flips to accepting that the UK as a whole has to remain in the Single Market and customs union - the only way the Irish border issue is ever going to be resolved to the satisfaction of both the ROI and DUP - then the Tory Eurosceptics will eat her alive. They'd be willing to take the risk of the government collapsing and an election despite current polling to keep a Hard Brexit alive, and there's obviously a chance they could force her out as leader without the resultant Tory civil war leading to Parliament calling another election.

Of course, had she initially proposed staying in the Single Market all along she could have had support for that position and had no headache over NI, with anyone arguing for withdrawing from absolutely everything still seen as a fringe nutter, but instead she doubled down on a Hard Brexit she doesn't even believe in and now if she goes back on leaving the Single Market the right have a position of strength to cry that it's a betrayal, it's failing to honour the will of the people, etc, when of course it would be no such thing. The ballot paper didn't have any mention of leaving the Single Market or Customs Union.

If she completes her capitulation to the DUP's position - regardless of what happens now Labour have to produce campaign posters with May in Arlene Foster's pocket - and actually tries to propose a hard border, the EU and ROI will laugh her out of negotiations and we're genuinely in a no deal scenario, which would surely lead to Remain Tories launching their own mutiny against her and the Tories will be torn apart that way; again, a general election might not even happen if they force her out and while this faction of the Tories are considerably less certain to take a risk based on principles v polling, there could surely be enough of them to topple her. The economic catastrophe that would cause for the UK coupled with the threat of instability in NI for the few who ever bother to pay attention to it should be enough.

Alternatively, she reverts to the border deal she was supposed to be announcing which the EU & ROI are happy with and cuts the DUP loose, saying she'll govern without a confidence and supply arrangement. This keeps her as PM longer but doesn't stop her being a shambles who is only clinging on. It's not outwith the realms of possibility that this'll work for getting a Brexit Bill through - in this scenario with the Irish border issue resolved, would Corbyn be willing to whip Labour MPs to vote in favour of Brexit? He might just be mental enough to follow Hard Brexit regardless of the fact he could topple the Tories by voting against. I'd like to think he wouldn't be that daft, but his attitude to Brexit votes so far is concerning. Regardless, even if they did get it through without the DUP, she's left as a lame duck for the rest of the legislative agenda. What could they hope to get through without the DUP's support, if they even ever get round to coming up with some legislation?

Stick a fork in this government already.

I agree with a lot of that but have to say again, it’s not just the DUP unhappy with what’s being proposed.  Other Tories, including Ruth Davidson, have said that there cannot be different arrangements for different parts of the UK.

The DUP are a disgrace, they’re “It’s all Dublin’s fault’ position is such a distortion that only their most bigoted supporters will buy it.

 

[HTG]

15 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I agree with a lot of that but have to say again, it’s not just the DUP unhappy with what’s being proposed.  Other Tories, including Ruth Davidson, have said that there cannot be different arrangements for different parts of the UK.

The DUP are a disgrace, they’re “It’s all Dublin’s fault’ position is such a distortion that only their most bigoted supporters will buy it.

 

I think we've learned by now that what Ruth has said makes zero difference to her saying the opposite tomorrow. Her and Mundell set their stall out with a spectacular volte face over the billion pound bribe. 

[doulikefish]

[LongTimeLurker]

5 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

...Other Tories, including Ruth Davidson, have said that there cannot be different arrangements for different parts of the UK.

It obviously opens the door to Scotland doing something similar in the years ahead, and there are so few viable border crossings thanks to lots of high hills and the river Tweed getting in the way between Scotland and England that it wouldn't be anything like as great a logistical nightmare as the RoI-NI border is to police in customs and excise terms. If you are Unionist in your outlook like Ruth Davidson this is something that the Tories shouldn't be pandering to in any way shape or form. It's seismic stuff politically that  a Conservative and Unionist prime minister would even think about signing the deal that was about to be made with the RoI and EU yesterday. Since EVEL was brought as the response to the West Lothan Question, it has not been so obvious as it used to be that the Tories are still the party of traditional Unionism as Ruth and co like to think rather than the party of Little Englander nationalism.

[H Wragg]

Do those percentages tie in with the usual vote share of the DUP in elections?

 

Is it DUP v the rest in this or ar a lot of DUP voters in the stay in the customs union camp despite the party line being otherwise?

[dorlomin]

The only reason anyone gives the slightest toss about the DUP's opinion is May backed her personality to be the backbone of an election campaign to carry her to a bigger majority. 

 

 

[welshbairn]

I'm beginning to think the hardcore Brexiteers in the Tory party aren't necessarily racist or even thick. They're just bored out of their minds being in a middling European country having to cooperate and compromise to gain any influence on the World stage instead of the days of derring do that their nannies read to them about the Empire. No doubt their investments are widely spread so as not to be hit too badly by the UK dropping off the cliff.

[renton]

So if the backtracking from a special NI deal to one where the whole of the UK has regulatory alignment applied to it, and bearing that in mind there is also a requirement for there to be as little as possible of a hard border in N.Ireland, does that effectively commit the UK to a slightly harder than soft Brexit where we leave the single market, but must effectively shadow the regulatory regime from Brussels regardless?

In which case how do our Bucaneering Brexiteers feel about that? We'll be paying our divorce liabilities as if we were still in, regulating and trading as if we were still in, and because we are forced by the Irish border to conform to EU practice, we have no give and take in any negotiations to strike individual trade deals with the rest of the world anyway: Conforming to EU practice but with none of the protection afforded by that organization.

It'd make you cry if it weren't so farcical.

Edited December 5, 2017 by renton

[welshbairn]

Even Tim Martin, Chief c**t of Wetherspoons and prime Brexiteer is beginning to shit himself over staffing levels since the "You're not welcome anymore." began.

[WILLIEA]

17 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Even Tim Martin, Chief c**t of Wetherspoons and prime Brexiteer is beginning to shit himself over staffing levels since the "You're not welcome anymore." began.

Delighted , couldn't happen to a more deserving c*nt

[Benjamin_Nevis]

Even Tim Martin, Chief c**t of Wetherspoons and prime Brexiteer is beginning to shit himself over staffing levels since the "You're not welcome anymore." began.

Utterly fantastic to see [emoji38]

[Scary Bear]

Surely leaving a political union shouldn't be this difficult?

Leaving a union seems quite a popular notion in modern times, given the situation in Spain with Catalonia and in the United Kingdom with Scotland. Also the former Yugoslavia and former Soviet Union. I'd imagine this sort of situation will keep popping up. Maybe the politicians/lawmakers should put better plans in place for this eventuality. Maybe even plan for countries rejoining a political union.

[zidane's child]

25 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Even Tim Martin, Chief c**t of Wetherspoons and prime Brexiteer is beginning to shit himself over staffing levels since the "You're not welcome anymore." began.

Sensational - His mouth was writing cheques that his ass couldn't cash

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

2 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

I agree with a lot of that but have to say again, it’s not just the DUP unhappy with what’s being proposed.  Other Tories, including Ruth Davidson, have said that there cannot be different arrangements for different parts of the UK.

 

 

Davidson cares nothing about the best Brexit deal for Scotland.

Every single thing she does or says has to be seen through the 'SNP baaad' prism, and this is no different. She's terrified that this Tory inspired cluster f*ck will lead to an increase in support for Scottish independence.

In that sense, Davidson is no better than that twisted witch Foster. They're both Unionist extremists with a blinkered ideology of 'preserve the Union' above everything.

[Granny Danger]

2 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

Davidson cares nothing about the best Brexit deal for Scotland.

Every single thing she does or says has to be seen through the 'SNP baaad' prism, and this is no different. She's terrified that this Tory inspired cluster f*ck will lead to an increase in support for Scottish independence.

In that sense, Davidson is no better than that twisted witch Foster. They're both Unionist extremists with a blinkered ideology of 'preserve the Union' above everything.

Whatever her motivation, if she’s making things more difficult for May  I’m quite happy with it.

 

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

Just now, Granny Danger said:

Whatever her motivation, if she’s making things more difficult for May  I’m quite happy with it.

 

When push comes to shove, May knows that these 13 mostly inexperienced Scottish Tories will always support the party line.

Davidson is doing what she's very good at...using the media to make herself sound that she almost isn't like a Tory. That's she's some kind of fire from the hip, Scottish maverick who defies Tory policies and stands up for the wee man in Scotland. 

When in actual fact, she's nothing of the kind. She's a head-office supplicant who is very, very good at the smoke and mirrors game.

[sureiknow]

4 hours ago, McQuade said:

Just put a hard border up and fuk NI and the DUP, do you want to be British aye or no?

Sinn Fein/ IRA don't want a hard Border. 

They have already threatened violence over it.

Guns kept by the bedside. 

[btb]

Surprised by Ruth Davidson's statement, everything else she's said since the GE in June seemed to be geared towards her getting a safe seat down south but I doubt very much whether this is the sort of policy that'll go down well in a Rotary Club in the Shires.

Still respect to her for showing a bit of support for her ain wee region!

[LongTimeLurker]

2 hours ago, H Wragg said:

Do those percentages tie in with the usual vote share of the DUP in elections?

 He quoted an online poll on the Belfast Telegraph website and made it look like it was the results of a scientifically conducted opinion poll survey. The numbers are basically meaningless as participation was self-selecting and easily manipulated by sending out a few messages urging contacts to participated to skew the results. There is some evidence that Unionist opinion isn't as uniformly hardline as the DUP's posture, but that's nothing new.