Brexit slowly becoming a Farce.

[Buddist Monk]

8 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Short term it's the only way. There's no point in pretending that we can start from scratch ignoring market and global economics.

No, it's really not. There are many ways, but the SNP took the path of least resistance. I have detailed how Slovakia (a country roughly the same size as Scotland) achieved an independent currency the minute the country gained independence and how an independent Scottish pound would be viable both in the short and long term.

 

Edited September 11, 2018 by Buddist Monk

[Detournement]

I disagree it's the only way. There would be plenty of time between winning a referendum and independence day to set up a currency.

Using Sterling means being completely beholden to bond markets and requires austerity to control the deficit. It means that a time when we need fiscal expansion to boost confidence we are guaranteed contraction. It means we can't devalue if we need to which will hurt exporters and Scottish citizens who have debt in pounds. The financial sector will flee anyway as it will be impossible for the Scottish government to bail them out or support with any kind of QE. And the longer we use Sterling for the more difficult it will be to change to a Scottish currency.

Real independence means not taking on any debt in currency of other nations.

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Buddist Monk said:

No, it's really not. There are many ways, but the SNP took the path of least resistance. I have detailed how Slovakia (a country roughly the same size as Scotland) achieved an independent currency the minute the country gained independence.

I don't think it's definitive SNP policy.  An initial Scottish currency pegged to the pound would be the way to go, which is still effectively using sterling. Whether to float, peg to or join the Euro would be later choices. I've no idea how @Detournement intends to start from scratch a brand new independent financial system, something to do with selling bonds to Venezuela probably. 

[Buddist Monk]

I think we need to live in the world of reality. As an independent Scotland we would not have the clout of the UK, but independence isn't a fiscal issue for me it's an emotional and existential one. If Brexit campaigners were honest they'd admit the UK will take a hit from leaving the EU, in the same way nationalists need to be honest and admit we will take a hit not being part of the UK. It's all about managing that difference and ensuring it doesn't hit those who are the most vulnerable.

I spent about 5 years working in the financial industry, and during that time the one thing that came across very clearly is the trust the international markets have in Scottish decision making. It's the classic trope that we are all tight misers, which is untrue but fits well with sensible fiscal policies.

Pegging to the BoE interest rates needs to be announced long before any actual independence happens, that allows businesses to know what exactly is happening, unlike Brexit. It's not the same as "sharing" Sterling though. The BoE has no say on whether we peg to their currency, and have no "rights" to the pound, it's a UK shared resource not an English one. They could of course set unsuitable rates, but all that would do is f**k the rUK economy rather than ours.

[Detournement]

12 minutes ago, Buddist Monk said:

Pegging to the BoE interest rates needs to be announced long before any actual independence happens, that allows businesses to know what exactly is happening, unlike Brexit. It's not the same as "sharing" Sterling though. The BoE has no say on whether we peg to their currency, and have no "rights" to the pound, it's a UK shared resource not an English one. They could of course set unsuitable rates, but all that would do is f**k the rUK economy rather than ours.

The SNP aren't suggesting pegging in the mannner of Denmark and the Euro though. They are suggesting just using the pound. We can obviously do this but it's fucking stupid. We could end up in a situation where the currency we are using is devalued by the BoE repeating QE or another rUK bail out without any benefits from it and a massive danger of being asset stripped.

You mention "unsuitable rates"but it's likely that the Scottish and rUk economy would be very different as financial services will dominate rUK and we won't have any.

[Detournement]

43 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I don't think it's definitive SNP policy.  An initial Scottish currency pegged to the pound would be the way to go, which is still effectively using sterling. Whether to float, peg to or join the Euro would be later choices. I've no idea how @Detournement intends to start from scratch a brand new independent financial system, something to do with selling bonds to Venezuela probably. 

I've read on Richard Murphy's tax blog that international law allows newly independent countries to convert all debts and deposits held in the new country into a new currency.

What obstacles do you see to setting up a new currency?

Edited September 11, 2018 by Detournement

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

I've read on Richard Murphy's tax blog that international law allows newly independent countries to convert all debts and deposits held in the new country into a new currency.

What obstacles do you see to setting up a new currency?

Confidence.

[Buddist Monk]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

The SNP aren't suggesting pegging in the mannner of Denmark and the Euro though. They are suggesting just using the pound. We can obviously do this but it's fucking stupid.

I know they do, or at least did, which I think is their path of least resistance in order not to spook people. The GBP is a known entity. I have laid out an alternative.

2 minutes ago, Detournement said:

You mention "unsuitable rates"but it's likely that the Scottish and rUk economy would be very different as financial services will dominate rUK and we won't have any.

I think you do the Scottish financial sector a massive disservice by suggesting we won't have any. It's also very unlikely we would have a "very different" economy to the rUK, certainly not in the short term and very doubtfully in the mid to long term.

If anything Brexit actually enhances the pull of the Scottish financial industry, as companies will look as us as being a bridge between the rUK and the EU.

[Buddist Monk]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Confidence.

Which is why you peg it to the English pound, in the short term at least.

[Detournement]

That's true but it's an issue for the referendum rather than for post victory planning. Going with the simplest sounding solution to gain voters for Yes and to reduce corporate grumbling is a completely irresponsible way to act.

 

[welshbairn]

6 minutes ago, Detournement said:

That's true but it's an issue for the referendum rather than for post victory planning. Going with the simplest sounding solution to gain voters for Yes and to reduce corporate grumbling is a completely irresponsible way to act.

 

How would you convince external and internal investors that on day one the new currency was reliable and worth retaining rather than withdrawing from? I hope you're not going to suggest a tartan bitcoin.

Edited September 11, 2018 by welshbairn

[Buddist Monk]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

That's true but it's an issue for the referendum rather than for post victory planning. Going with the simplest sounding solution to gain voters for Yes and to reduce corporate grumbling is a completely irresponsible way to act.

Yes, I agree, it is imperative that confidence and consistency are offered. The currency issue needed tied down long before any vote was held.

The problem with "sharing the pound" rather than having an independent currency (either pegged or not) is that it's perceived by many that would mean the BoE having full fiscal control over us. Which isn't the case. Another false assumption is that the BoE would need to give their consent, they wouldn't. In fact they would have no control what so ever.

As I said for me independence is an existential/emotional issue and the biggest barrier of "sharing the pound" is that it doesn't seem like a independence - a point I think you raised a few posts back.

Oh, and along with the currency, Queeny can go f**k herself. This causes a lot of problems for an indy ref because a lot of people hold a soft spot for her, but I have yet to hear a compelling argument that proves she should be in a position of power simply because of the vagina she came out of.

[Buddist Monk]

1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

How would you convince external and internal investors that on day one the new currency was reliable and worth retaining rather than withdrawing from? I hope you're not going to suggest a tartan bitcoin.

I've already answered this. I don't know if it's specifically @Detournement you want to get the answer from though.

[Detournement]

1 minute ago, Buddist Monk said:

 

I think you do the Scottish financial sector a massive disservice by suggesting we won't have any. It's also very unlikely we would have a "very different" economy to the rUK, certainly not in the short term and very doubtfully in the mid to long term.

If anything Brexit actually enhances the pull of the Scottish financial industry, as companies will look as us as being a bridge between the rUK and the EU.

How can we have a significant financial sector if we can't underwrite it? Who is going to hang about in Edinburgh when being in London means never having to worry about going bust? Financial institutions will make their bed with the government which can create infinite numbers of pounds out of thin air, not the government with pounds in a biscuit tin and pay day lenders to fall back on.

I also don't agree with the bridge idea. Any barriers between the EU and the City that are created with Brexit will quickly be whittled away as Westminster and Brussels are both Neoliberal to the core and run for the benefit of bankers.

[Detournement]

7 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

How would you convince external and internal investors that on day one the new currency was reliable and worth retaining rather than withdrawing from? I hope you're not going to suggest a tartan bitcoin.

The strength of a currency depends on the strength of the underlying economy. As long as there are things which people want to buy with Scottish pounds the Scottish pound will have value. Given that we have natural resources, exports, an educated population, tourism and a tax base combined with no debt in foreign currency there is no reason for anyone to lose confidence in a new currency.

Edited September 11, 2018 by Detournement

[Buddist Monk]

Just now, Detournement said:

How can we have a significant financial sector if we can't underwrite it? Who is going to hang about in Edinburgh when being in London means never having to worry about going bust? Financial institutions will make their bed with the government which can create infinite numbers of pounds out of thin air, not the government with pounds in a biscuit tin and pay day lenders to fall back on

Do you think that if we split from the UK we would just leave our assets with the BoE and say, don't worry we'll start from scratch? You also seem to think that QE is beneficial to the financial industry, it's really really not.

Just now, Detournement said:

I also don't agree with the bridge idea. Any barriers between the EU and the City that are created with Brexit will quickly be whittled away as Westminster and Brussels are both Neoliberal to the core and run for the benefit of bankers.

That is most definitely not the case. In fact it's been one of the stumbling blocks of the Brexit negotiations. Things like passporting will never be offered to London without the other tenets of the Union being adopted and London won't accept those. Brussels is most definitely not neoliberal, and what's more the  decision regarding financial services will not be made there. It will be made in France and Germany as Paris and Frankfurt vie for the financial companies leaving the UK.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

It always was hijacked by extremists though. We've had years of lies being published with impunity by the right wing press and allowed lies and facile comments to perpetuate the argument.  We became the 5th largest trading nation in the world thanks to our involvement in the EU, yet somehow that gets turned into the EU being a negative to our success. The £350m claim is another example, or that the EU is unelected - that from people like Farage who was fucking elected to the European Parliament and willing to take the money while claiming it wastes money (oh, the irony). Not his first contradiction, he complained of people not speaking English on the train while the man was married to a fucking German who he spoke German with. I mean really.. anyway, less Farage, his faults are all too easy to expose.
At Westminster, the Conservative Party is and always has been riven with disharmony on Europe and to allow them to be the ones in charge of getting a settlement is like asking the ghost of Jimmy Saville to look after your kids. Don't think I lay the blame entirely at their door though, we had a euro-sceptic leader of the Labour party who nominally claimed to be supporting Remain but did such a dreadfully unbelievable job that nobody took him seriously and instead of standing up to the lies and bullshit he kept a low profile because he didn't want to lose seats in the febrile North of England where xenophobia and racism has been ratcheted up by malign forces. I would have a lot more respect for Corbyn if he actually had the guts to stand up and say I don't believe in the EU, which he doesn't and never has, rather than meekly trying to shuffle his way through the whole thing. Both parties have fucked over the country.
Who does it hurt in the long run? Not the Gove's, the Johnson's or the Mogg's. These people are insulated from financial fallout. It's an ideological fight for them. They don't care if the country is worse off so long as their little Albion rules the waves once more.
 
 
 

Except of course Corbyn has, on many occasions, stated that, while he felt that the EU needed reform, that reform would be better enacted as a member state rather than trying to go it alone. I've Heard him say it twice in person, and Ian Lavery agreed with me that the expression "better in the tent pissing out" more or less summed up the leader's stance. Corbyn did not "run a weak campaign" - he was all over the country during the run up to the referendum. Unfortunately, he didn't have control over what was, or more importantly was not broadcast or published.
I have no problem with people who see politics as some kind of popularity contest (actually,I really do),but it would be nice to see someone criticise Corbyn's actions and words (as well as other leading players in the Westminster soap opera) rather than what is fed to them as fact by the media. The spinning and twisting of context over the last few years has been scary - what is scarier is that so many people are watching their income, security and health decline while accepting that the likes of Rees Mogg and Johnson have any other interests than their own at heart.

[welshbairn]

1 minute ago, Detournement said:

The strength of a currency depends on the strength of the underlying economy. As long as there are things which people want to buy with Scottish pounds the the Scottish pound will have value. Given that we have natural resources, exports, an educated population, tourism and a tax base combined with no debt in foreign currency their is no reason for anyone to lose confidence in a new currency.

Venezuela has massive human and economic resources. 

[Detournement]

Just now, welshbairn said:

Venezuela has massive human and economic resources. 

Presumably no one will be waging economic warfare on us so Venezuela is no comparison.

And Venezuela is developmentally stunted due to centuries of imperialism.

[Buddist Monk]

9 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Except of course Corbyn has, on many occasions, stated that, while he felt that the EU needed reform, that reform would be better enacted as a member state rather than trying to go it alone. I've Heard him say it twice in person, and Ian Lavery agreed with me that the expression "better in the tent pissing out" more or less summed up the leader's stance. Corbyn did not "run a weak campaign" - he was all over the country during the run up to the referendum. Unfortunately, he didn't have control over what was, or more importantly was not broadcast or published.

That has been his recent appeasement. He doesn't like the EU, doesn't want to be part of the EU and has said so for essentially 20 years. Trying to whitewash his comments before he entered power won't work with people who know his history.

He voted against us joining, he voted against Maastricht, he voted against Lisbon, he voted for an EU referendum in 2011 long before Cameron offered one, he went on fucking holiday during the referendum campaign. On fucking holiday during one of the most important times of British politics.

You might be willing to swallow his mealy mouthed claims, those of us who know the actual facts are not moved by them. To accuse those who criticise him as being led by the media is pathetic btw.

 

I have no personal axe to grind with the guy, I just wish he was as honest with the EU as he has been regarding the adoption of the anti-Semitism charter. He should have stood on the Leave platform as that is where his heart lies. If he did that, I would have no problem. He didn't and hiding from campaign he took up the oxygen for a genuine pro European campaigner to take the lead.

Labour are a busted flush in Scotland, they made a fucking mess of things when in coalition with the Liberals in Holyrood, they have taken our votes for granted and have reaped what they sowed with arrogant and ignorant fools like Jim "fucking" Murphy.

Edited September 11, 2018 by Buddist Monk