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May Election Thread

Baxter Parp

By Baxter Parp
in The Politics Forum

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Chapelhall chap

Chapelhall chap

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, NotThePars said:

He just heard "Ulsterisation" somewhere and thinks it's clever to use. Really isn't much deeper than that.

It's also a puzzle that if SF/SDLP succeed in persuading a majority of voters in NI on a border poll, they would be the Unionists( Irish) but the current Unionists would still want to be Nationalists (British). I think there have been some writers developing the notion he mentioned , in other internet/MSM places.

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Reluctant Hero

Reluctant Hero

Posted
Posted

If anyone is remotely interested, I have pulled together all the information on the candidates standing for the council elections and done some analysis on it.  You use it at your own risk (necessary disclaimer!)  If you click on the link below, (hopefully) it will take you to some Tableau analysis of the data.  The default data is for the whole of Scotland, but there is a list down the right hand side that you can select on to drill down to specific Council area.

 

Link

 

It should be self explanatory but here is an explanation just in case!

Number of Candidates Standing - The number of people standing for election in each Council Area or all Council Areas if the filter is on (All).
Number of Councilors to be elected – number of available council seats

Just a note on the above two figures.  The BBC and Wikipedia have different figures to what I have got, but I have gone through all the notices of the 32 councils more than once and that is the figures I come up with.

Total Number of Candidates by Party - The number of people standing for election by party in each Council Area or all Council Areas if the filter is on (All).

Number of Candidates per seat in Council Area – If there are 3 seats in a ward and there are six candidates standing, the answer here will be 2.

Percentage Breakdown of Candidates by Gender – This shows the percentage of men and woman that are standing.  This analysis is an estimate.  I went down all 2,569 candidates and allocated them accordingly.  Therefore some names were dubious and could have gone either way, but I would guess that it is over 95% accurate.  Plus it is line with the analysis that the group Women 5050 have carried out.

Total Candidates Standing By Party – this is just a visual graphic of the table further above.  If you hover over each area, you will get the total number of candidates standing by part.

Number of Candidates per seat in each ward – This shows how much choice we have – In a lot of cases the answer is 2.  So if there are 3 seats in the ward, there is only 6 candidates to choose from.  And in a lot of cases, there is more than one candidate per party, so the choice is even more limited.  There are only two wards where this is 1.  This means that there is only 3 candidates for the 3 seat on offer in each of the wards.  This means all the candidates are automatically elected without requiring an election.

Number of Candidates per party per ward – On average, in each council area, the number of candidates each party has fielded in each ward.

Again, on the right hand side, there is a filter, so you can choose all of Scotland, or choose a specific Council area to look at.

There is some other interesting analysis, such as the Lib Dems are not standing at all in North Lanakshire (where I live).  There are 3 seats in my Ward.  I have a “choice” of 5 candidates.  Haud me back!  If the Lib Dems had stood, I might actually have voted for them.

I think if you get a Tableau account, you can download all the data behind the analysis.  

Anyway, if there are any problems with the figures, I’m sure someone will let me know lol.

Just a reminder that my analysis of previous council elections/indyref/Brexit can be found here.
 

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Wee Willie

Wee Willie

Posted
Posted

On the first page it says number of candidates standing - 2569
number of councillors to be elected - 1224.
That means almost half will be elected.
It doesn't seem like big odds.

I can get down to my ward but I don't see how many candidates or which party.
I click on 'keep only' but the amount of candidates don't change.
It shows 86 candidates for 40 seats (presumably for the whole of Perth & Kinross).

It says against my ward there are 2.67 candidates per seat.
Where can I see how many seats/candidates.
What am I doing wrong :)

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Reluctant Hero

Reluctant Hero

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Wee Willie said:

On the first page it says number of candidates standing - 2569
number of councillors to be elected - 1224.
That means almost half will be elected.
It doesn't seem like big odds.

I can get down to my ward but I don't see how many candidates or which party.
I click on 'keep only' but the amount of candidates don't change.
It shows 86 candidates for 40 seats (presumably for the whole of Perth & Kinross).

It says against my ward there are 2.67 candidates per seat.
Where can I see how many seats/candidates.
What am I doing wrong :)

 

I couldn't get all that detail onto the other link, but if you click on this link, it will give you the candidate, party and number of councilors that will be elected per ward.  If you select on the relevant council, it will only show the wards for that council area.

 

Link - Candidates

 

 

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invergowrie arab

invergowrie arab

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Wee Willie said:

On the first page it says number of candidates standing - 2569
number of councillors to be elected - 1224.
That means almost half will be elected.
It doesn't seem like big odds.

I can get down to my ward but I don't see how many candidates or which party.
I click on 'keep only' but the amount of candidates don't change.
It shows 86 candidates for 40 seats (presumably for the whole of Perth & Kinross).

It says against my ward there are 2.67 candidates per seat.
Where can I see how many seats/candidates.
What am I doing wrong :)

What ward are you in?

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Wee Willie

Wee Willie

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Reluctant Hero said:

 

I couldn't get all that detail onto the other link, but if you click on this link, it will give you the candidate, party and number of councilors that will be elected per ward.  If you select on the relevant council, it will only show the wards for that council area.

 

Link - Candidates

 

 

that is a brilliant link - well done.

Help me out here cos I'm no very bright.

pcc.jpg.54923657099c9088b54f5ecab9411517.jpg

There are 8 candidates for 4 seats.
The first two are obvious with the green third.
Then is it the two independents then perm any from the other three to fill in 6th, 7th & 8th place.

Is it: SSGIILLC :angel

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Ad Lib

Ad Lib

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, invergowrie arab said:

 I don't  anything about independents but Peter Barret was one of the heid bummers locally for better together

Barrett is a w**k. I dislike him after some disingenuous gallery-playing shit he got up to in the fracking debate. Hysterical nonsense about contaminated water supplies. He should know better.

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Ad Lib

Ad Lib

Posted
Posted
On 4/14/2017 at 18:06, lichtgilphead said:

If everyone ranks SNP Candidate A first, and Candidate B second, Candidate B will be knocked out at one of the early elimination stages because he has too few first preferences.

If the local party have done their homework properly, they will know which part of the constituency favours candidate A over candidate B. The leaflets in that half of the constituency will suggest to vote A first and B second. In the other half of the constituency, they will suggest vote B first and A second.

This maximises the chance of them staying in the contest as long as possible and hopefully both being elected...

As long as they are very confident their first preference will get in on the first ballot (admittedly that's not a given) it shouldn't really matter. There's probably a calculation in there that if the first one isn't getting on in the first ballot they're fucked anyway.

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Ad Lib

Ad Lib

Posted
Posted

Question:

Where can I find the manifestos for Glasgow for the SNP and Labour Parties? I know the Lib Dems haven't distributed a distinct one from their "national local elections" manifesto (lol contradiction in terms much) but I've only been able to find one for the Greens.

My two issues are transport and housing. I want to vote for whoever is most likely to replace FirstGlasgow with a Lothian Buses-style arrangement and who is most likely to let developers build lots and lots of houses to make it cheaper for young people to rent and buy.

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DrewDon

DrewDon

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ad Lib said:

Question:

Where can I find the manifestos for Glasgow for the SNP and Labour Parties? I know the Lib Dems haven't distributed a distinct one from their "national local elections" manifesto (lol contradiction in terms much) but I've only been able to find one for the Greens.

My two issues are transport and housing. I want to vote for whoever is most likely to replace FirstGlasgow with a Lothian Buses-style arrangement and who is most likely to let developers build lots and lots of houses to make it cheaper for young people to rent and buy.

SNP: https://snpforglasgow.scot/manifesto/
Labour: http://www.scottishlabour.org.uk/page/-/2017 LG Election/Put_Glasgow_First.pdf

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lichtgilphead

lichtgilphead

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Ad Lib said:

As long as they are very confident their first preference will get in on the first ballot (admittedly that's not a given) it shouldn't really matter. There's probably a calculation in there that if the first one isn't getting on in the first ballot they're fucked anyway.

Really?

Most recent poll I can find gives the following figures:

SNP 46%
Conservatives 19%
Labour 17%
Greens 8%
Liberal Democrats 6%
UKIP 3%

In a 3 person ward, you need 25%+1 to be elected.

Lets assume that there are 7 candidates (2 SNP & 1 from each of the other parties) and everyone follows the 'vote for your own party first, then rank the others on their indy views' strategy.

If the SNP get things right, and their vote is split 50:50, no-one is elected on the 1st iteration. The 3 leaders are 

SNPa 23%

SNPb 23%

Con 19%

The UKIP candidate gets punted. This increases the Con vote to 22%

The Lib-dem gets punted. His votes split between Con & Lab, so Conservative may or may not reach 25%+1. If he does, he's elected, and his spare votes transfer to labour. If he doesn't reach 25%+1, we continue.

At this point, the Green gets punted. Whichever way his votes split, both SNP candidates will be elected in the next 2 rounds.

Result = 2x SNP and 1x Con or Lab depending on 2nd preferences

A similar result will happen with most other splits in the SNP vote. However, as I have demonstrated, there is a good chance that they will fill the 2nd & 3rd seats in the ward without getting someone elected on the first iteration or without even filling the first seat to be elected.

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lichtgilphead

lichtgilphead

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, invergowrie arab said:

At the last council elections in P&K SNP first to second transfers was about 80%

Yeah, I was just attempting to show that it was easily possible to get 2 members elected without winning the first seat. It's obvious that not everyone will vote according to party dictat.

The important thing this time round is to get the "Vote till you boak" message out. If the SNP can't bring themselves to do that, they must push the "SNP 1 & 2" line at every opportunity.

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invergowrie arab

invergowrie arab

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, lichtgilphead said:

Yeah, I was just attempting to show that it was easily possible to get 2 members elected without winning the first seat. It's obvious that not everyone will vote according to party dictat.

The important thing this time round is to get the "Vote till you boak" message out. If the SNP can't bring themselves to do that, they must push the "SNP 1 & 2" line at every opportunity.

Absolutely

At lat election with 6 candidates in a 3 member ward we had 1 Tory and 2 SNP elected with First Pref Tory 1250 Snp 720 Snp 505

SNP tactic is not to get one in ( it is actually prohibited in vote management strategy guidlines) ward is split either 2 or 3 ways and each area has their own 1/2 or 1/2/3 strategy to try and ensure max first vote and vote transfer strategy

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