Armand 2 Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 I can't see Inverness getting out of the mire that they're in; granted, they still managed to take points of us but they are the poorest team that I've seen by some distance. No real style or game-plan was apparent when I've watched them and they're relying on a striker in McKay who has struggled since leaving Inverness in the first place. I was really surprised at how poor County were despite on the face of it having a decent enough squad. If Boyce finds a bit of form and is played in his correct position, I'd fancy them to eventually steer clear but McIntyre appears to be having the alienating effect that one of his former players suggested to me he would have. I thought Killie were a team of total cloggers when I seen them under Clark. Picked up some good results under McCulloch but have been pegged back recently. To have been in the mix for top 6 up until last week, they'll need to ensure they don't hit a slump. Dundee are in a horrendous run of form at the minute - huge game against Hamilton on Saturday. The problem that most folk identified at the start of the season - where the goals were going to come from in Hemmings and Stewart's absence - seems to be coming home to roost now. Hamilton have a knack of pulling a result out of nowhere which keeps their heads above water. I know the Accies' fans aren't too fond of Canning but keeping them up for another season given their budget would be no mean feat. The only team I've not seen is Motherwell so couldn't comment too much on their chances. Almost identical goals for and against as Inverness though and I don't rate their man Robinson as a manager at all. They've got a talisman in Moult though that Hamilton and Dundee don't, and his fitness is pivotal to their chances of staying up, I'd suggest. It'll be quite a low points tally to stay up this season - I'd say 36 will keep you above the play off. For that reason, I'd put Killie in the safe category almost, barring a Hibs-esque catastrophe, and I imagine County will get another victory before the season is out which will likely see them clear. I don't see Inverness gaining enough points to get out the relegation mix-up completely. The Inverness - Motherwell game on the last day could be a "loser leaves town" match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C4mmy31 Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 their Ahhh, always good to know the sphincter police are on patrol....... [emoji108] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les Westander of County Posted April 13, 2017 Author Share Posted April 13, 2017 6 hours ago, Scotty Tunbridge said: 2nd and 3rd are already sewn up tbh. Sevco will be no where near unless Aberdeen capitulate. 6 hours ago, deej said: 2nd is definitely Aberdeens, and will be hugely difficult for anyone to catch Sevco due to Aberdeen and Hearts visiting Ibrox where they will duly shit the bed. Unless Partick can hold Sevco this weekend, and Saints win, I think it's finished. "Top 6 Fixtures" thread for this pish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blastie_12 Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 I'd like to say I'm astounded about the scheduling and TV picks but it seems about right if your trying to kill the game in scotland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C4mmy31 Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 I can't see Inverness getting out of the mire that they're in; granted, they still managed to take points of us but they are the poorest team that I've seen by some distance. No real style or game-plan was apparent when I've watched them and they're relying on a striker in McKay who has struggled since leaving Inverness in the first place. I was really surprised at how poor County were despite on the face of it having a decent enough squad. If Boyce finds a bit of form and is played in his correct position, I'd fancy them to eventually steer clear but McIntyre appears to be having the alienating effect that one of his former players suggested to me he would have. I thought Killie were a team of total cloggers when I seen them under Clark. Picked up some good results under McCulloch but have been pegged back recently. To have been in the mix for top 6 up until last week, they'll need to ensure they don't hit a slump. Dundee are in a horrendous run of form at the minute - huge game against Hamilton on Saturday. The problem that most folk identified at the start of the season - where the goals were going to come from in Hemmings and Stewart's absence - seems to be coming home to roost now. Hamilton have a knack of pulling a result out of nowhere which keeps their heads above water. I know the Accies' fans aren't too fond of Canning but keeping them up for another season given their budget would be no mean feat. The only team I've not seen is Motherwell so couldn't comment too much on their chances. Almost identical goals for and against as Inverness though and I don't rate their man Robinson as a manager at all. They've got a talisman in Moult though that Hamilton and Dundee don't, and his fitness is pivotal to their chances of staying up, I'd suggest. It'll be quite a low points tally to stay up this season - I'd say 36 will keep you above the play off. For that reason, I'd put Killie in the safe category almost, barring a Hibs-esque catastrophe, and I imagine County will get another victory before the season is out which will likely see them clear. I don't see Inverness gaining enough points to get out the relegation mix-up completely. The Inverness - Motherwell game on the last day could be a "loser leaves town" match. Cloggers ? Killie?.... That's been the problem mate, we've been crying out for a clogger all season as we are too lightweight in the middle of the pitch.... Well apart from that glorious challenge back in August when Taylor tried to see if Barton could fly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les Westander of County Posted April 13, 2017 Author Share Posted April 13, 2017 1 minute ago, blastie_12 said: I'd like to say I'm astounded about the scheduling and TV picks but it seems about right if your trying to kill the game in scotland. you're Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StuartTaylor Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 2 hours ago, Armand 2 said: I was really surprised at how poor County were despite on the face of it having a decent enough squad. If Boyce finds a bit of form and is played in his correct position, I'd fancy them to eventually steer clear but McIntyre appears to be having the alienating effect that one of his former players suggested to me he would have. That leaves quite a selection, give us a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Armand 2 Posted April 13, 2017 Share Posted April 13, 2017 1 hour ago, StuartTaylor said: That leaves quite a selection, give us a clue. Not from County. Ex-keeper who played under McIntyre at Dunfermline. 3 hours ago, C4mmy31 said: Cloggers ? Killie?.... That's been the problem mate, we've been crying out for a clogger all season as we are too lightweight in the middle of the pitch.... Well apart from that glorious challenge back in August when Taylor tried to see if Barton could fly. The only evidence I have is from the Thistle v Killie game on Hogmanay. That was a clog fest from both teams so probably unfair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poet of the Macabre Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 More people will watch Celtic games, whether there's anything on the line or not. Considering they're going for an unbeaten season as well, it's really a simple choice for Sky. Would expect better from BT though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bad chad Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 BT are trying to show the SFA that they will treat our game with the respect it deserves. i.e. Showing as many old-firm games as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 I did my simulations for the bottom 6 again this morning based on ClubELO ratings, was a relief not having to include us this year. FWIW, usual disclaimer that Hibs were < 5% to finish 11th after 33 games in 13/14 and we know what happened there, and it's more to see what a safe points total would be... Safe% Playoff% Relegated % Kilmarnock 96.30% 3.20% 0.50% County 85.50% 11.60% 2.90% Dundee 77.70% 15.40% 6.90% Hamilton 61.70% 26.40% 11.90% Motherwell 56.80% 25.50% 17.70% Inverness 22.00% 17.90% 60.10% Amount of times the following points total would guarantee at least 10th place 35 36 37 38 39 40 41.40% 66.00% 88.30% 97.00% 99.70% 100.00% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harry94 Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 23 hours ago, Mr Gandosaur said: You just know there will be about 4 teams involved in the play-off/relegation battle come the last day and these fuckers will scramble and move the last round of fixtures to Saturday 12.30 to show live games at 3 days notice. I was just thinking actually, have all of the bottom half fulfilled the contractually obliged games by then? Didn't Hibs refuse BT access when they lost 1-0 to Killie, could it maybe be that the clubs have rebuffed the TV companies in this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Gandosaur Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 3 minutes ago, harry94 said: I was just thinking actually, have all of the bottom half fulfilled the contractually obliged games by then? Didn't Hibs refuse BT access when they lost 1-0 to Killie, could it maybe be that the clubs have rebuffed the TV companies in this way? Hamilton would be obliged to show the game v us. They have only had 3 televised home fixtures this season I believe. I am sure the obligation is 6. Inverness will have had 5 home games shown I think - 2 x Celtic, 2 x Rangers and 1 x Hamilton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiG Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 44 minutes ago, Mr Gandosaur said: Inverness will have had 5 home games shown I think - 2 x Celtic, 2 x Rangers and 1 x Hamilton. Making the most of it before we disappear into the TV abyss that is the Championship. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksburnDandy Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 1 hour ago, Fuctifano said: I did my simulations for the bottom 6 again this morning based on ClubELO ratings, was a relief not having to include us this year. FWIW, usual disclaimer that Hibs were < 5% to finish 11th after 33 games in 13/14 and we know what happened there, and it's more to see what a safe points total would be... Safe% Playoff% Relegated % Kilmarnock 96.30% 3.20% 0.50% County 85.50% 11.60% 2.90% Dundee 77.70% 15.40% 6.90% Hamilton 61.70% 26.40% 11.90% Motherwell 56.80% 25.50% 17.70% Inverness 22.00% 17.90% 60.10% Amount of times the following points total would guarantee at least 10th place 35 36 37 38 39 40 41.40% 66.00% 88.30% 97.00% 99.70% 100.00% Question for you @Fuctifano, is the difference between Motherwell and Hamilton purely down to goal difference? Seems a surprising difference on the relegation percentage given same points total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 Partly that plus partly the current ratings have Hamilton rated marginally higher than Motherwell. 6% difference isn't that much. Edit : because the teams are all really rated so closely and there's no games in hand then the safety % is just going to be based on the league table. Tho Ross County still having to play celtic pretty much assumes them a loss in that game. When I first did this it was to see what points would get you safe more often than not, 36/37 seems the target at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RossCountyFan14 Posted April 14, 2017 Share Posted April 14, 2017 For the love of God don't let Motherwell and Killie be in the playoff place. Ross C and Inverness can f**k right off too. Cannot be arsed hauling my ass up the A9 on a Sunday for more May heartache Heaven forbid having to do it every other week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted April 16, 2017 Share Posted April 16, 2017 On 4/14/2017 at 12:19, Fuctifano said: I did my simulations for the bottom 6 again this morning based on ClubELO ratings, was a relief not having to include us this year. FWIW, usual disclaimer that Hibs were < 5% to finish 11th after 33 games in 13/14 and we know what happened there, and it's more to see what a safe points total would be... Safe% Playoff% Relegated % Kilmarnock 96.30% 3.20% 0.50% County 85.50% 11.60% 2.90% Dundee 77.70% 15.40% 6.90% Hamilton 61.70% 26.40% 11.90% Motherwell 56.80% 25.50% 17.70% Inverness 22.00% 17.90% 60.10% Amount of times the following points total would guarantee at least 10th place 35 36 37 38 39 40 41.40% 66.00% 88.30% 97.00% 99.70% 100.00% Update following wk 33- with 4 of the bottom 6 picking up points including Killie & County picking up points vs top 6 opponents the projected safety totals slide down a bit. Safe% Playoff% Relegated % Kilmarnock 96.90% 2.80% 0.30% County 89.40% 9.30% 1.30% Hamilton 84.30% 13.50% 2.20% Motherwell 75.40% 20.90% 3.70% Dundee 47.10% 40.10% 12.80% Inverness 6.90% 13.40% 79.70% 35 36 37 38 39 40% 33.50% 59.70% 81.10% 95.70% 99.00% 100.00% Although I'm sure there's plenty of Dundee and Inverness fans currently saying 32 points will be enough for safety (has a 1.7% chance according to this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CityDave Posted April 17, 2017 Share Posted April 17, 2017 7 hours ago, Fuctifano said: Update following wk 33- with 4 of the bottom 6 picking up points including Killie & County picking up points vs top 6 opponents the projected safety totals slide down a bit. Safe% Playoff% Relegated % Kilmarnock 96.90% 2.80% 0.30% County 89.40% 9.30% 1.30% Hamilton 84.30% 13.50% 2.20% Motherwell 75.40% 20.90% 3.70% Dundee 47.10% 40.10% 12.80% Inverness 6.90% 13.40% 79.70% 35 36 37 38 39 40% 33.50% 59.70% 81.10% 95.70% 99.00% 100.00% Although I'm sure there's plenty of Dundee and Inverness fans currently saying 32 points will be enough for safety (has a 1.7% chance according to this). What is this 32 points you talk of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Henry Posted April 17, 2017 Share Posted April 17, 2017 Update following wk 33- with 4 of the bottom 6 picking up points including Killie & County picking up points vs top 6 opponents the projected safety totals slide down a bit. Safe% Playoff% Relegated % Kilmarnock 96.90% 2.80% 0.30% County 89.40% 9.30% 1.30% Hamilton 84.30% 13.50% 2.20% Motherwell 75.40% 20.90% 3.70% Dundee 47.10% 40.10% 12.80% Inverness 6.90% 13.40% 79.70% 35 36 37 38 39 40% 33.50% 59.70% 81.10% 95.70% 99.00% 100.00% Although I'm sure there's plenty of Dundee and Inverness fans currently saying 32 points will be enough for safety (has a 1.7% chance according to this). You give me 90% confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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