Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[GordonS]

9 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

Apart from when Scotland In Union want polls using Remain/Leave instead of Yes/No.

We don't know what the question would be in a future independence referendum and Cameron handed the SNP a big advantage when he let the Scottish Parliament set the question last time. Before 2011 independence polling questions used a range of different formats and it's always been pretty extraordinary how much difference the question makes. There's nothing inherently wrong with the Remain/Leave format, it's arguably less loaded than Yes/No and Leave did win, after all.

I wouldn't call Remain/Leave "loaded" any more than Yes/No, but what's really important is that the two aren't compared or worse, included in the same series.

[renton]

28 minutes ago, GordonS said:

We don't know what the question would be in a future independence referendum and Cameron handed the SNP a big advantage when he let the Scottish Parliament set the question last time. Before 2011 independence polling questions used a range of different formats and it's always been pretty extraordinary how much difference the question makes. There's nothing inherently wrong with the Remain/Leave format, it's arguably less loaded than Yes/No and Leave did win, after all.

I wouldn't call Remain/Leave "loaded" any more than Yes/No, but what's really important is that the two aren't compared or worse, included in the same series.

The pre-amble they use is designed to be fairly emotive as well though.

Given the pre-eminance of precedence in running UK politics I imagine there would be a fairly strong pull from the electoral commission to use the previous question as well.

[GordonS]

Just now, renton said:

The pre-amble they use is designed to be fairly emotive as well though.

Given the pre-eminance of precedence in running UK politics I imagine there would be a fairly strong pull from the electoral commission to use the previous question as well.

Yeah, we definitely need to stick with the same question, anything else would just cause confusion.

The full text of the question asked by Survation for Scotland in Union was "If there was a referendum tomorrow with the question 'Should Scotland remain part of the United Kingdom or leave the United Kingdom?', how would you vote?" I don't think there's anything wrong with that, it's just not part of the Yes/No series and shouldn't be reported as such.

[picklish]

It's not so much that polls can be loaded, its the attachment of specific weighting that itself can create biases. As there isn't a 'correct' way to do this, and results vary between pollsters, it isn't unreasonable to critique a study by saying 'data was selected and statistical tests were performed in a certain way that leads to a result favouring x' whether that x be Alba votes or No votes.

Human bias creeps in all the time in hard science, and in the soft sciences it's even harder to account for. Agenda driven results also appear in the sciences all the time, it's naive to believe polling companies are somehow immune from this because of the BPC

[Granny Danger]

The question on Independence should be “Are you a subservient c**t?”

 

[Suspect Device]

1 minute ago, Granny Danger said:

The question on Independence should be “Are you a subservient c**t?”

 

 

I don't know. I'll ask the wife.

[BigDoddyKane]

Im a Yes and a Yes

 

Yes to independence and Yes to being a subservient c**t

[Baxter Parp]

We don't know what the question would be in a future independence referendum and Cameron handed the SNP a big advantage when he let the Scottish Parliament set the question last time. Before 2011 independence polling questions used a range of different formats and it's always been pretty extraordinary how much difference the question makes. There's nothing inherently wrong with the Remain/Leave format, it's arguably less loaded than Yes/No and Leave did win, after all.
I wouldn't call Remain/Leave "loaded" any more than Yes/No, but what's really important is that the two aren't compared or worse, included in the same series.

Can't find it now but I did see an analysis that showed a small percentage of EU remain voters are more likely to pick remain in an indyref poll. It doesn't need to be a large percentage to make a big difference. The published indyref paper says we're going to use the previously used question anyway so it's a moot point but it definitely shows the reputable companies are still willing to conduct skewed polls for their clients.

[Baxter Parp]

^^^ verge of tears

An oldie but goodie, now f**k off.

[wirez]

I'll add - ^^seething mess

Just while we are all taking a walk down memory lane.

[John Lambies Doos]

Oof, this thread has been scraping the barrel recently.

[GordonS]

2 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

3 hours ago, GordonS said:

We don't know what the question would be in a future independence referendum and Cameron handed the SNP a big advantage when he let the Scottish Parliament set the question last time. Before 2011 independence polling questions used a range of different formats and it's always been pretty extraordinary how much difference the question makes. There's nothing inherently wrong with the Remain/Leave format, it's arguably less loaded than Yes/No and Leave did win, after all.
I wouldn't call Remain/Leave "loaded" any more than Yes/No, but what's really important is that the two aren't compared or worse, included in the same series.

Can't find it now but I did see an analysis that showed a small percentage of EU remain voters are more likely to pick remain in an indyref poll. It doesn't need to be a large percentage to make a big difference. The published indyref paper says we're going to use the previously used question anyway so it's a moot point but it definitely shows the reputable companies are still willing to conduct skewed polls for their clients.

I think it's ridiculous to call that a skewed poll, the question is completely justifiable, the sample and weighting were solid, the full data tables were published and there was no ramp-up. I just think you don't like what it means.

Obviously different ways of framing the question get different results. It doesn't mean any are necessarily right or wrong, and there were just as legitimate concerns that "Yes" has an advantage from being a positive term.

[Highland Capital]

This type of thing is really beginning to irritate me.  She may as well say, "Should've given us your vote you idiots!".

 

[Baxter Parp]

I think it's ridiculous to call that a skewed poll, the question is completely justifiable, the sample and weighting were solid, the full data tables were published and there was no ramp-up. I just think you don't like what it means.
Obviously different ways of framing the question get different results. It doesn't mean any are necessarily right or wrong, and there were just as legitimate concerns that "Yes" has an advantage from being a positive term.

It's not a different way of asking the same question, it's an attempt to get a good result for your cause using a misleading question.

[RiG]

Any politicians with Twitters handles "2win", "4u" or "4*area*" should be banned from standing in the election.

[GordonS]

3 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

1 hour ago, GordonS said:

I think it's ridiculous to call that a skewed poll, the question is completely justifiable, the sample and weighting were solid, the full data tables were published and there was no ramp-up. I just think you don't like what it means.
Obviously different ways of framing the question get different results. It doesn't mean any are necessarily right or wrong, and there were just as legitimate concerns that "Yes" has an advantage from being a positive term.

It's not a different way of asking the same question, it's an attempt to get a good result for your cause using a misleading question.

Which is exactly what Yes/No was too.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I'll add - ^^seething mess
Just while we are all taking a walk down memory lane.

[Baxter Parp]

Which is exactly what Yes/No was too.

No. Yes/no apparently has a bias to yes while using remain/leave (which apparently also has a bias to remain) has the additional effect of confusing the issue, in some respondents mind, with the EU referendum. It's a deliberate attempt to skew the outcome.

[Dunfermline Don]

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Any polls out tomorrow?

We've not had any Scottish only ones since the Johnson shit hit the fan.

Will be interesting to see if the Tory vote is affected as it was in UK-wide polls.