Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[SANTAN]

2 minutes ago, renton said:

Yeah. Of course, the two Sunday polls have more recent field work and show Yes at 50-52%

Post them then..

I quite regularly post polls I see as I'm scrolling through Twitter, I don't follow every one like some folk. 

[renton]

4 minutes ago, Stormzy said:

Post them then..

I quite regularly post polls I see as I'm scrolling through Twitter, I don't follow every one like some folk. 

There has already been a fair amount of discussion on them.

But find it here:

BMG: https://ballotbox.scot/bmg-april-2021

Panelbase: https://ballotbox.scot/panelbase-april4-2021

[Eddie Hitler]

1 hour ago, HTG said:

That's horrendous. I'm not sure this is anything to do with Starmer. England has moved to the right and I doubt if Corbyn would have fared much differently.  

You may have a point but at the same time, Starmer isn't inspiring anyone, is he? What's he offering that's going to change things for people in these areas (and yes I know the Tories aren't going to do anything much for them either but the point stands. Labour will need to offer groundbreaking stuff and sound convincing with it. I don't find him convincing on anything).

[Dunning1874]

44 minutes ago, NotThePars said:

 

The combined UKIP/ Tory vote in 2015 was bigger than Labour's votes and yet Labour added 7000 more voters in 2017 and outstripped both parties combined tally by 3000 votes.

Yeah, if the logic is that Corbyn had in essence lost Hartlepool already despite holding it because the combined Brexit and Tory vote was more than the Labour vote, then applying the same logic it was already lost in 2015 by Miliband before Corbyn won it back.

Alternatively we can just argue that the party who wins or lose the seat in any given FPTP election has, y'know, won or lost the seat, and that's down to the current leader and policies of that party. The amount of messaging being fired out before they've even lost it that this is Corbyn's fault and Starmer can't be held accountable for results 13 months into his leadership (Corbyn had already faced a leadership challenge in under a year) is wild.

Brexit Party voters were up for grabs with the removal of Brexit as an electoral issue after the 2019 election and if as looks likely they're moving to the Tories rather than Labour then the Labour Party should be looking at Starmer to ask why. It was a shitehawk excuse for Labour's left to argue Corbyn was blameless in 2019 when he allowed the likes of Starmer to back him into a corner and adopt the electorally suicidal position of backing a second referendum - he shouldn't have been so weak a leader then - and it's absolutely pathetic for Labour's right to say their current figures are nothing to do with Starmer being a wet wipe but are about Corbyn when they'd won the seat twice with him as leader.

Edited May 4, 2021 by Dunning1874

[NotThePars]

11 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

Yeah, if the logic is that Corbyn had in essence lost Hartlepool already despite holding it because the combined Brexit and Tory vote was more than the Labour vote, then applying the same logic it was already lost in 2015 by Miliband before Corbyn won it back.

Alternatively we can just argue that the party who wins or lose the seat in any given FPTP election has, y'know, won or lost the seat, and that's down to the current leader and policies of that party. The amount of messaging being fired out before they've even lost it that this is Corbyn's fault and Starmer can't be held accountable for results 13 months into his leadership (Corbyn had already faced a leadership challenge in under a year) is wild.

Yep. The story of Hartlepool is the story of so many other places. A seat which had an historic high in '97 after near two decades of Tory rule followed by 2 decades of decline that was briefly arrested in 2017 before normal service resumed. A party that actually had ideas and did the requisite soul searching would come to terms with this but instead it's easy to smash that motherfucking "blame Corbyn" button and go back to hoping things will around when Boris eventually does something so beyond the pale that that solid 40% of the electorate finally decide they've had enough. I'm sure it's coming.

13 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

It was a shitehawk excuse for Labour's left argue Corbyn's was blameless in 2019 when he allowed the likes of Starmer to be back him into a corner and adopt the electorally suicidal position of backing a second referendum - he shouldn't have been so weak a leader then 

Undoubtedly. The moment I knew Labour was fucked in hindsight was when Corbyn stepped in to stop the left from chucking that fat snake Tom Watson out on his arse. That and failing to bring in mandatory reselections fucked the party. 

[Thane of Cawdor]

1 hour ago, dirty dingus said:

Racist shite holes like Hartlepool which voted 70% to Brexit deserve the Tories.

 

The good people {monkey murderers} of Hartlepool also elected Peter Mandelson as their MP and their football club's mascot as the town's mayor. Electing a Tory MP may seem a naturall progression.

[Suspect Device]

 

 

[GordonS]

3 hours ago, Suspect Device said:

 

 

One of two things is going on in the polls, or maybe a bit of both.

Either voters are drifting back to the SNP as it comes time to make the real decision, or pollsters are doing a bit of herding and congregating around the relatively higher predictions for the SNP.

We'll soon know.

[Dunning1874]

2 hours ago, GordonS said:

One of two things is going on in the polls, or maybe a bit of both.

Either voters are drifting back to the SNP as it comes time to make the real decision, or pollsters are doing a bit of herding and congregating around the relatively higher predictions for the SNP.

We'll soon know.

Another following that trend:

 

[Granny Danger]

24 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

Another following that trend:

 

Please let that be reflected on Thursday.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Starmer is pretty shit but honestly, Tony Blair would be painted as a commie in modern England. Corbyn held Hartlepool because the Brexit Party stood. If the KKK put up a candidate Labour would maybe stand a chance but when the biggest gammons are the Tories, they’ll stroll it.

England is fucked. It’s in a state of permanent outrage about nothing, but when something like government incompetence killing thousands of its citizens comes along or the Prime Minister openly takes bribes, they shrug their shoulders. I have no idea how they come back from where they are.

There is at least ten more years of hardline Tory government to come. Politics is cyclical and sooner or later, you’d imagine some shiny New Labour drone will make enough friends in the press that they’re palatable enough to get a go for a few years. But it won’t be any time soon.

Thick working class racists is the real issue.

[Dunning1874]

6 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

Please let that be reflected on Thursday.

I'd be amazed if the Greens hit 13%, surely that's not happening as good as it would be.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Another following that trend:
 

If that is the result I'd be absolutely delighted

[Gaz]

Labour are going to get an absolute shoeing down south.

Unless you want indefinite Tory rule then independence is the only way forward.

[Granny Danger]

1 minute ago, Gaz said:

Labour are going to get an absolute shoeing down south.

Unless you want indefinite Tory rule then independence is the only way forward.

Came on to make the exact same point.  Outwith voters for the fringe parties, Scots who support either Labour or the LibDems are Tory enablers.  They are condemning the citizens and residents of our country to continued Tory rule perpetrated by a combination of genuine Tories, working class racists and general thickos.

[Baxter Parp]

[Salt n Vinegar]

8 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

No Labour or Libdem constituencies?  Rennie on the dole? I might open a new bottle of malt... 

Aw damn... He is on the  list.  Maybe next time... 

Edited May 4, 2021 by Salt n Vinegar

[GordonS]

7 minutes ago, Baxter Parp said:

Yet another one of that type.

Either the pollsters are going to look silly or the unionist parties are.

1 minute ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

No Labour or Libdem constituencies?  Rennie on the dole? I might open a new bottle of malt... 

Two Lib Dem constituencies. 

[Salt n Vinegar]

Just now, GordonS said:

Yet another one of that type.

Either the pollsters are going to look silly or the unionist parties are.

Two Lib Dem constituencies. 

Curses. You are correct. They get some. Mind you, to be even thought of as only a third as popular as the Greens might just embarrass even someone with as hard a neck a Rennie.  To be fair, his response last night about the Royal Yacht was good, but deserves the same praise as being against sending weans up chimneys... it was bleedin' obvious. 

[Kyle]

New Scottish Parliament poll, ComRes 30 Apr - 4 May (changes vs 23 - 27 Apr):

SNP ~ 34% (-2) Con ~ 22% (nc) Lab ~ 19% (nc) Grn ~ 9% (-1) LD ~ 6% (+1) Alba ~ 2% (nc)

 

Constituency: SNP ~ 42% (-3) Con ~ 25% (+2) Lab ~ 22% (-1) LD ~ 8% (+1)

The polls are absolutely all over the place.