Polling: 2017 General Election, Council Elections and Independence

[GordonS]

5 minutes ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

Curses. You are correct. They get some. Mind you, to be even thought of as only a third as popular as the Greens might just embarrass even someone with as hard a neck a Rennie.  To be fair, his response last night about the Royal Yacht was good, but deserves the same praise as being against sending weans up chimneys... it was bleedin' obvious. 

If they fail to take a single constituency or regional seat in Glasgow, Lothian, West, Central or South, they're pretty much dead.

Orkney & Shetland were only split into two constituencies because they wanted an odd number of seats in the Scottish Parliament and the Lib Dems negotiated it in the Constitutional Convention.

[GordonS]

4 minutes ago, Kyle said:

New Scottish Parliament poll, ComRes 30 Apr - 4 May (changes vs 23 - 27 Apr):

SNP ~ 34% (-2) Con ~ 22% (nc) Lab ~ 19% (nc) Grn ~ 9% (-1) LD ~ 6% (+1) Alba ~ 2% (nc)

 

Constituency: SNP ~ 42% (-3) Con ~ 25% (+2) Lab ~ 22% (-1) LD ~ 8% (+1)

The polls are absolutely all over the place. 

 

Woah! Maybe the rest are herding after all.

Wonder where the remaining 8% are going on the list.

[Kyle]

13 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Woah! Maybe the rest are herding after all.

Wonder where the remaining 8% are going on the list.

4 pollsters have the SNP high 40s, low 50s after a week of mid 40s, and one has the SNP going the other way. We'll see what the results bring tomorrow as there's a couple more due out but this feels like the anomaly, or it does to me anyway.

 

[DC92]

23 minutes ago, Kyle said:

New Scottish Parliament poll, ComRes 30 Apr - 4 May (changes vs 23 - 27 Apr):

SNP ~ 34% (-2) Con ~ 22% (nc) Lab ~ 19% (nc) Grn ~ 9% (-1) LD ~ 6% (+1) Alba ~ 2% (nc)

Constituency: SNP ~ 42% (-3) Con ~ 25% (+2) Lab ~ 22% (-1) LD ~ 8% (+1)

The polls are absolutely all over the place. 

A good reminder that the "voting SNP on the list is a waste" idea is predicated on the flimsy assumption that they'll do exactly as well as last time in the constituencies. Polls are all over the place and, given the last few elections have all delivered somewhat surprising results, it wouldn't shock me if the one or two "outlier" polls are correct.

[GordonS]

14 minutes ago, Kyle said:

4 pollsters have the SNP high 40s, low 50s after a week of mid 40s, and one has the SNP going the other way. We'll see what the results bring tomorrow as there's a couple more due out but this feels like the anomaly, or it does to me anyway.

 

Yeah, this is ComRes' final poll so we won't know if it's just that one-in-twenty sample. I think it's reasonable to suspect the others might be tinkering with their methodologies, maybe around likelihood to vote, in order to bunch together and that ComRes are actually on to something.

If they're right, the SNP could lose three constituencies to the Tories.

[Kyle]

9 minutes ago, DC92 said:

A good reminder that the "voting SNP on the list is a waste" idea is predicated on the flimsy assumption that they'll do exactly as well as last time in the constituencies. Polls are all over the place and, given the last few elections have all delivered somewhat surprising results, it wouldn't shock me if the one or two "outlier" polls are correct.

Certainly food for thought anyway.

 

2 minutes ago, GordonS said:

Yeah, this is ComRes' final poll so we won't know if it's just that one-in-twenty sample. I think it's reasonable to suspect the others might be tinkering with their methodologies, maybe around likelihood to vote, in order to bunch together and that ComRes are actually on to something.

If they're right, the SNP could lose three constituencies to the Tories.

Especially as one of the constituencies potentially going Tory is mine!  

[Dunning1874]

5 hours ago, DC92 said:

A good reminder that the "voting SNP on the list is a waste" idea is predicated on the flimsy assumption that they'll do exactly as well as last time in the constituencies. Polls are all over the place and, given the last few elections have all delivered somewhat surprising results, it wouldn't shock me if the one or two "outlier" polls are correct.

Yeah, those figures could actually land right in the spot where the SNP are dropping towards the mid-50s in constituency seats, while the Greens haven't increased enough on the list to pick up as many seats as the SNP lose and the SNP to Alba switch isn't big enough to win Alba any seats but is big enough to cost the SNP seats.

Some laugh if that comes to pass and there actually isn't a pro-independence majority in parliament, but it seems a massive stretch with 8% of the list vote unaccounted for and as ever with the list there's a massive caveat around regional variance. They don't appear to have posted the data behind it anywhere yet so can't see how that 8% is explained.

[renton]

6 hours ago, GordonS said:

Yeah, this is ComRes' final poll so we won't know if it's just that one-in-twenty sample. I think it's reasonable to suspect the others might be tinkering with their methodologies, maybe around likelihood to vote, in order to bunch together and that ComRes are actually on to something.

If they're right, the SNP could lose three constituencies to the Tories.

It's possible.

On the other hand ComRes could simply be well out on a limb with their own methodology, showing a fairly consistent drop in both SNP constituency and list vote not replicated elsewhere, and also that huge "other" vote on the list.

Worth noting that ComRes have already had several mistakes in their methodology pointed out by the BPC, repeating to their two massively high Yes poll numbers last year that had to be revised down.

[renton]

Last Survation poll for Courier: https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/2191954/scottish-election-polling-survey/?utm_source=twitter

Const.

SNP: 49%

LAB: 21%

CON: 21%

LD: 8%

GRN: 1%

OTHERS: 1%

List:

SNP: 36%

LAB: 19%

CON: 21%

LD: 7%

GRN: 10%

ALBA: 3%

Would leave SNP on 66 seats. SNP constituency is plus 2 from their previous at 47.

Edited May 5, 2021 by renton

[vikingTON]

7 hours ago, DC92 said:

A good reminder that the "voting SNP on the list is a waste" idea is predicated on the flimsy assumption that they'll do exactly as well as last time in the constituencies. 

As opposed to the ironclad logic of casting list votes for the SNP in Glasgow/West of Scotland and letting in a full bracket of Yoons. 

[Caledonian1]

8 hours ago, Baxter Parp said:

If Scotland was first past the post only the SNP would have 70 out of 73 constituencies - a parliament without any Labour of Lib Dems and the one Tory.  Remember this is the system for the UK.  We would be independent pretty soon in this scenario.

[GordonS]

24 minutes ago, Caledonian1 said:

If Scotland was first past the post only the SNP would have 70 out of 73 constituencies - a parliament without any Labour of Lib Dems and the one Tory.  Remember this is the system for the UK.  We would be independent pretty soon in this scenario.

There's two Lib Dems.

But yeah, FPTP is only barely a democracy at all. 

[Salt n Vinegar]

1 minute ago, Pato said:

It's a good thing that this isn't the case.

Of course that is an opinion to which you are entitled, but I am curious about why folk think that PR is essential for the Scottish Parliament but FPTP is essential for Westminster. Care to enlighten me? 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

The current constitutional impasse is bad enough. Imagine a parliament with 70 out of 73 SNP msps but no independence.

[John Lambies Doos]

The current constitutional impasse is bad enough. Imagine a parliament with 70 out of 73 SNP msps but no independence.

I think that would be easy to swing with the international community

[Salt n Vinegar]

5 minutes ago, Pato said:

I don't think FPTP is essential for westminster.

Good luck selling that! 

As far as I know, the UK is the only European country that uses FPTP to elect its Parliament. Belarus is scarcely democratic at all and France has a two round system. All the other 40 odd use some form of PR, the vast majority using  Party Lists. 

[John Lambies Doos]

I don't think FPTP is essential for westminster.

Its not but sadly it will never change

[D Angelo Barksdale]

13 minutes ago, John Lambies Doos said:

14 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

The current constitutional impasse is bad enough. Imagine a parliament with 70 out of 73 SNP msps but no independence.

I think that would be easy to swing with the international community

In respect of what, UDI ? No chance.

The international community's response would amount to the side of the European parliament being lit up like a saltire on a wet Tuesday night.

[John Lambies Doos]

In respect of what, UDI ? No chance.
The international community's response would amount to the side of the European parliament being lit up like a saltire on a wet Tuesday night.

Was thinking more about a referendum

[Salt n Vinegar]

2 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

In respect of what, UDI ? No chance.

The international community's response would amount to the side of the European parliament being lit up like a saltire on a wet Tuesday night.

It would be a bit bizarre for a party to stand for election with independence the main plank of its manifesto and for that party to win 70 out of 73 seats (as per the earlier suggestion), but for that party to be unable to carry the day in an independence referendum. I realise that the Scottish electorate can be a bit truculent and contrary on occasion but really...