welshbairn Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, Sooky said: My worry for Labour is that any drastically higher youth turnout will probably be in more urban areas...seats they mostly already have. That could be another reason for low turnouts, if students are registered at their parents address. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrewDon Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, Bedford White said: It would indeed be a decent point if Labour were not offering fee free university places, £10 min wage, aboloshing zero hour contracts,1 million new homes. The last time Clegg offered just one of these in 2010 the youth vote turned out in numbers. The 'youth vote' might have turned out in good numbers for Clegg in 2010, but that didn't prevent the Lib Dems from suffering a net loss of seats at that election. Their percentage vote share only increased by a solitary point from five years previous, too. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjw Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 It would indeed be a decent point if Labour were not offering fee free university places, £10 min wage, aboloshing zero hour contracts,1 million new homes. The last time Clegg offered just one of these in 2010 the youth vote turned out in numbers. There's one major problem with what Clegg offered though.Hopefully this next generation aren't swayed by what happened then. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedford White Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 17 minutes ago, Sooky said: My worry for Labour is that any drastically higher youth turnout will probably be in more urban areas...seats they mostly already have. Yep. Most university cities are Labour anyway. There is an app that suggests to students whether they should vote at term time or home address but got my doubts how many will use it. Better craic to go down the pub with your mates and pitch up at polling stations at 9.55pm ala 2010. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wee Willie Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 2 hours ago, John Lambies Doos said: It's a shame most of the plp and Scottish branch are c***s tho Thank f**k they are. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G-MAN Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 Com Res subsample out. SNP 40. Con 32Not sure of size of subsample but to be ignored.Sure Davidson who 'doesn't believe in polls' won't though..... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 Oh. Jeremy. Corbyn. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 Well now. That is going to set the cat among the pigeons. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 Just going to continuously remind myself that Survation had Labour +3 the weekend before the 2015 election and try and not cry at this shit show of a campaign... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakedee Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 Oh. Jeremy. Corbyn. These polls will have the same effect as the one that showed YES was ahead in the indyref. Make sure there is no apathy in the Tory vote. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 I love polls... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 The Survation poll has 18-24 turnout at 82%.It was 44% in 2015.They also said 72% of voters had seen or heard of the QT special.At least some of the pollsters are going to get this election badly wrong. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G-MAN Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 Looks like they are dependant on the young vote. Polls with higher 18-25 year olds giving a higher Labour estimate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kyle Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 Absolutely bonkers. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjw Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 The Survation poll has 18-24 turnout at 82%.It was 44% in 2015. 63℅ said they would vote the week before. Hopefully they all get out this time. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 The Survation poll has 18-24 turnout at 82%.It was 44% in 2015.They also said 72% of voters had seen or heard of the QT special.At least some of the pollsters are going to get this election badly wrong. Surely that's an absolute fantasy? I don't know why anyone would expect it to be that high. It'll go up, sure, but not by nearly double. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sooky Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 Read a few comments that among politically engaged groups Labour are improving, among low engagement groups things have moved far less.In 2015 low engagement groups who voted were under represented in polls.Be interesting to see what Survation says in its Scotland specific poll. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 The polls are all over the place in exactly the same way that they have been all over the place for years and years. At some point people are going to suddenly realise that the models these pollsters are using simply cannot be correct. You cannot statistically correct for people lying. It's all total bollox. The polls were pretty consistent in 2015 and in other subsequent elections. Consistently wrong but still consistent.It seems that the changes made to pollsters models since then are making them vary now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted June 3, 2017 Share Posted June 3, 2017 ICM have the Conservatives 11% ahead.Worth bearing in mind that the Survation poll would give the conservatives a two seat majority. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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