Oor Nicola Sturgeon thread.

[GTG_03]

2 minutes ago, GiGi said:

I dont see a lose in the supreme court case. Either you win and Scottish ministers can table a referendum on their own. 

Or you lose and demonstrate the lack of consent in the union. 

 

Demonstrating a lack of consent won't do much. It might move the needle marginally towards indy but Westminster has no intention of ever 'allowing' a referendum.

The SNP can keep winning elections but if the power for a referendum is in London then there won't be a referendum ever again. 

[Antlion]

7 minutes ago, GiGi said:

I dont see a lose in the supreme court case. Either you win and Scottish ministers can table a referendum on their own. 

Or you lose and demonstrate the lack of consent in the union. 

 

The Tories are already framing this as a “waste of time purely to show the UK as bad”, unaware that by saying this they’re admitting the UK is bad.

[williemillersmoustache]

18 minutes ago, Antlion said:

The Tories are already framing this as a “waste of time purely to show the UK as bad”, unaware that by saying this they’re admitting the UK is bad.

The best thing to happen this week is that indyref2 will be an absolute baragin at just 1/5th of the cost of the Festival of Brexit nobody went to. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The strategy for HM government appears to be not to challenge the legitimacy of the Scottish Government to hold a referendum but to put off any Supreme Court decision until the legislation is passed.

If they were so confident that a referendum would be ultra vires then why the stalling tactics?

[williemillersmoustache]

3 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

The strategy for HM government appears to be not to challenge the legitimacy of the Scottish Government to hold a referendum but to put off any Supreme Court decision until the legislation is passed.

If they were so confident that a referendum would be ultra vires then why the stalling tactics?

The best outcome for them is the legal equivalent of "now is not the time."

In the short term a definitive no, would seem beneficial for the union but in the medium to long term a supreme court ruling which unequivocally states under current legislation there is no mechanism for Scotland to choose its own future, makes the UK a prison, not a union. And even the fucking headcases in TeamTruss get that and don't want to have to deal with the implications.  

[Detournement]

1 hour ago, GiGi said:

 

Or you lose and demonstrate the lack of consent in the union. 

 

That's worked well in Cataluyna. 

[Detournement]

1 hour ago, renton said:

I dont think anyone has said that a successful plebiscite in two years would be used for a UDI.

The SNP have said that if they are denied the right to hold Indyref2 during this parliament they will use the next General Election as a defacto referendum on independence. That would mean UDI if they get a majority of votes. 

[renton]

7 minutes ago, Detournement said:

The SNP have said that if they are denied the right to hold Indyref2 during this parliament they will use the next General Election as a defacto referendum on independence. That would mean UDI if they get a majority of votes. 

No, it wouldn't.

[sophia]

34 minutes ago, Detournement said:

That's worked well in Cataluyna. 

I'd like to see the outcome here if police were to be bussed in to bludgeon democrats.

 

 

 

[Antlion]

11 minutes ago, sophia said:

I'd like to see the outcome here if police were to be bussed in to bludgeon democrats.

 

 

 

Careful - you’ll give Suella Braverman a new reason to dampen her bedsheets.

[Detournement]

49 minutes ago, renton said:

No, it wouldn't.

So what claim are they making about the next GE in the event of Indyref2 being denied?

[renton]

16 minutes ago, Detournement said:

So what claim are they making about the next GE in the event of Indyref2 being denied?

That they would claim a mandate to seek negotiation with the incoming UK government regarding making Scotland an independent state.

Which is pretty much exactly the same thing as you'd get from an IndyRef. 

No one is talking about storming Pacific Quay and proclaiming a new Republic  during the weather segment.

[Antlion]

3 hours ago, Detournement said:

The 'detest' comment was cynical but highly effective way to take the attention of the fact that she has nothing to say about currency, joining the EU or the ramifications of losing the Supreme Court case.

 

I’m not sure why you’d be worried; Brexit was voted for without a plan or any agreement on what should happen (beyond vague promises), and you professed yourself “glad it happened” after the fact.

[Mark Connolly]

18 minutes ago, renton said:

No one is talking about storming Pacific Quay and proclaiming a new Republic  during the weather segment.

Any party sticking that in their manifesto would get my vote tbh

[renton]

2 minutes ago, Mark Connolly said:

Any party sticking that in their manifesto would get my vote tbh

I mean, me too to be quite fucking honest. Would be a good laugh at least. 

[williemillersmoustache]

10 minutes ago, renton said:

I mean, me too to be quite fucking honest. Would be a good laugh at least. 

Imagine the stern looks we'd get from Judith Ralston. Sign me up. 

[Shannon]

Demonstrating a lack of consent won't do much. It might move the needle marginally towards indy but Westminster has no intention of ever 'allowing' a referendum.
The SNP can keep winning elections but if the power for a referendum is in London then there won't be a referendum ever again. 

Why did David Cameron allow an independence referendum and the thinking is future Tory / Labour leaders won't ever allow one? What has changed? Is voting too close now or was he the last half decent PM - no laughing now [emoji23]

[Lurkst]

29 minutes ago, Shannon said:

Why did David Cameron allow an independence referendum and the thinking is future Tory / Labour leaders won't ever allow one? What has changed? Is voting too close now or was he the last half decent PM - no laughing now

Cameron fully expected a No vote of 70% plus. No way would he have granted a referendum in the knowledge that the result would be so close.

 

[Paco]

Yeah, if the goal was to wed Scotland to the UK for the next 50 years then Cameron played his hand reasonably well - it was probably much tighter than he anticipated, but ultimately No won and any time Scotland asks for a referendum they’re simply told they’ve already had one, now is not the time, yet another divisive blah blah blah.

In another world, Cameron might’ve refused until after the Brexit referendum just two years later and then who knows where it might’ve ended up. Would’ve been convenient for PM May to get rid of 50 Remoaners from her parliamentary arithmetic.

[Guest Jedi]

Some questions about Independence as currently proposed:

Finance: Keeping the pound, and having the B of E as lender of last resort. Makes it easier to pay benefits and pensions, and also smoother trade with England. However with the B of E continuing to set interest rates, that determines what level the Scottish govt can borrow at, and they are tied to that. So, without financial independence...is it really a 'freedom'? It would take some time to set up a Scottish Central Bank and issue currency, as has been acknowledged, as the Bank has to build up foreign reserves of cash and gold...once a Scottish currency is established, it has to be floated on international markets. What happens if the Scottish currency struggles in its early to medium years? Surely takes some time for any new currency to build up confidence and in these markets.

The EU: By their own admission (the SNP) could take years to be able to join the EU, due to the acquis condition of having debt below 3%. Scotland isn't at the head of the queue just because some EU movers and shakers 'like Nicola'. While still outside the EU (for potentially another decade), how long does it take to set up new trade deals? Do existing trade arrangements with say Australia, Canada etc under the UK at present simply 'roll over' into the Scottish sector (food and drink, technologies maybe) continuing to be part of the deal, or do new trade arrangements have to be negotiated? which takes some time. Of course Scotland can still buy and sell to the EU, but is still subject to the red tape created by Brexit in doing so. If a condition of EU membership is joining the Euro, is that acceptable? How might the EU view an application from a nation which wants to set up its own currency at some point in the future? (The 'Scottish' pound)? 'Could join EFTA' in the meantime...is this SNP policy? And is that not still a more limited access to the Single Market and CU?

Defence: Get rid of Trident, which is good, towing it south to Portsmouth...but then can't be a member of NATO? Does Scotland go for the route chosen by the Republic of Ireland regarding defence, which is basically to contribute small peacekeeping forces internationally?

Oil: How do you strike the balance between relying on fossil fuels to finance other projects, while at the same time rolling out a significant green energy approach? Does the green energy/renewables eventually replace the oil? What happens then to building up an 'oil fund' a la Norway? Is the aim to have green energy being the main focus of the Scottish economy? that 'pays for itself' in the long term.

The next GE: With Plan B to enter the GE on a single policy platform 'Should the Scottish govt be able to negotiate Independence' (or whatever the question is)....will this be a simple majority of Scottish seats, or does it need to be over 50% of the vote in Scotland? If the former, the SNP could win a a majority of seats but do so on between 35-40% of the vote share.....is that enough to 'negotiate' Independence? If the latter, that is one heck of a high bar to set. I don't disagree that the govt currently has a mandate to hold a 2nd Ref, as they won on that platform in 2021, but we know that Westminster will continue to say No...so if that continues, do the SNP simply enter the next Scottish Parliament election in 2026 on a platform of 'If we win, we demand a Ref'?

All genuine questions btw.

 

Edited October 12, 2022 by Jedi