Empty It Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Stuck in an office in this heat, without any air con. Our buildings are meant for heat to be kept inside to the max. This is genuinely fucking hellish. We aren't allowed to wear smart shorts/chino shorts with a shirt either, but women can wear skirts. Seems reasonable. Get a skirt on then. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venti Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Nice breeze on the Clyde Riviera now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, dorlomin said: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/2018/02/WG1AR5_Chapter08_FINAL.pdf We have broad estimates of the natural forcings over the past 120 years. There is no change to a major component of the system that can explain the changes we have seen other than CO2. https://www.nature.com/articles/35066553 Cherry picking data over such a small sample period is, as we saw from Covid modelling, filled with confirmation bias. It correlates to the desired hypothesis and therefore must confirm it. The problem with focusing on the last few hundred (or even thousand) years is it ignores the vast majority of Earth's life cycle, and completely ignores the causes of prior periods of extreme heat and cold. If CO2 is the sole driver of the current warming of the climate, then it must be shown firstly what was responsible for previous periods of warming and cooling and also why they do not apply at all here. As I said earlier, if the natural cycle of the Earth's climate dictates that it is going to heat up moving forward, then trying to slow the rate of change (which may or may not have any meaningful impact) to ultimately arrive at the same destination a little bit later really isn't the best use of time or resources. -4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 That's the runway melting at Raf Brize Norton in Oxfordshire 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorongil Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 30 minutes ago, Steve_Wilkos said: "look at this funny "me me", darling" 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Just now, Todd_is_God said: as we saw from Covid modelling, filled with confirmation bias. It correlates to the desired hypothesis and therefore must confirm it. The problem with focusing on the last few hundred (or even thousand) years is it ignores the vast majority of Earth's life cycle, and completely ignores the causes of prior periods of extreme heat and cold. If CO2 is the sole driver of the current warming of the climate, then it must be shown firstly what was responsible for previous periods of warming and cooling and also why they do not apply at all here. As I said earlier, if the natural cycle of the Earth's climate dictates that it is going to heat up moving forward, then trying to slow the rate of change (which may or may not have any meaningful impact) to ultimately arrive at the same destination a little bit later really isn't the best use of time or resources. Quote Cherry picking data over such a small sample period is, From Marcott 2013 https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.1228026 Longish story but our climate has been dominated by orbital cycles over the past 3 million years. This is due to our CO2 being so low vs historic norms. This made us very sensitive to small changes. So we built major ice sheets over both polls. Small changes in orbit change the energy at high northern latitude and pushed us in and out of glacials (what everyone thinks of as ice ages). About 11 000 years ago the Earth was in northern hemisphere summer when closest to the Sun, this is what pushed us out of the last glacial. But over those 11000 years we now have our norther hemisphere summer when furthest from the Sun. This caused a long term cooling that we see in Marcott 2013. That cooling would allow snows to last longer in the high hills, so cooling springs and reinforcing etc. This is the long term causes of the glacial interglacial phases we see. Our release of CO2 since the mid 1800 has seen that trend reverse. Other forcings obviously work. Over the longer time frames the Sun heating up is the dominant climate forcing. https://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/14/3/pdf/i1052-5173-14-3-4.pdf (astrophysics nerds, as it burns hydrogen into helium, the helium is much more dense so the core gets denser and burns faster). Royer 2004 compares the slow warming of the Sun with the CO2 feedback to show that CO2 and the Sun explain most of the long term changes. tldnr, human CO2 has disrupted long term cycles. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorongil Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Just now, dorlomin said: From Marcott 2013 https://www.science.org/doi/abs/10.1126/science.1228026 Longish story but our climate has been dominated by orbital cycles over the past 3 million years. This is due to our CO2 being so low vs historic norms. This made us very sensitive to small changes. So we built major ice sheets over both polls. Small changes in orbit change the energy at high northern latitude and pushed us in and out of glacials (what everyone thinks of as ice ages). About 11 000 years ago the Earth was in northern hemisphere summer when closest to the Sun, this is what pushed us out of the last glacial. But over those 11000 years we now have our norther hemisphere summer when furthest from the Sun. This caused a long term cooling that we see in Marcott 2013. That cooling would allow snows to last longer in the high hills, so cooling springs and reinforcing etc. This is the long term causes of the glacial interglacial phases we see. Our release of CO2 since the mid 1800 has seen that trend reverse. Other forcings obviously work. Over the longer time frames the Sun heating up is the dominant climate forcing. https://www.geosociety.org/gsatoday/archive/14/3/pdf/i1052-5173-14-3-4.pdf (astrophysics nerds, as it burns hydrogen into helium, the helium is much more dense so the core gets denser and burns faster). Royer 2004 compares the slow warming of the Sun with the CO2 feedback to show that CO2 and the Sun explain most of the long term changes. tldnr, human CO2 has disrupted long term cycles. Aye, I’m sure we all really believe that science can accurate state temperature trends from 12000 years ago. They simply travelled back in time with their thermometers. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Quote England hits 37C Ben Rich BBC Weather As of 3pm, the highest temperature we’ve seen is 37.5C at Kew Gardens. Kew! Its hot in here. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorongil Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 36 minutes ago, craigkillie said: Was the record in Wales broken or not? Not sure. It’s being VAR checked. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RawB93 Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 Just now, Thorongil said: Aye, I’m sure we all really believe that science can accurate state temperature trends from 12000 years ago. They simply travelled back in time with their thermometers. Honestly it took me two seconds to google and find out how they estimate past climates. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorongil Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 30 minutes ago, coprolite said: The press release from 3 days ago when the warning was released included the 50%. You guys are just making shit up Yes, the media comms from forecasters and meterologists have been studiously pointing out 50% certainty in recent days and haven’t been presenting 40 degrees as highly likely. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorongil Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 1 minute ago, RawB93 said: Honestly it took me two seconds to google and find out how they estimate past climates. Did you say estimate? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 I dont know anything, but I do know that science hasn't met my own, completely flexible burden of proof, therefore promoting me to smartest in the room. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 (edited) Likely the hottest temperature readings today, 99.5 degrees in old money, undeniably toasty. Hottest readings predicted for tomorrow. Edited July 18, 2022 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorongil Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 (edited) I think this constitutes confidently predicting 40 degrees again now for tomorrow. Certainly no mention of 50% probability in this forecast. England didn’t get near its record today, a whole 1.3 below. Wales STILL being VAR checked for it’s 0.1 degree. Edited July 18, 2022 by Thorongil 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorlomin Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 9 minutes ago, Thorongil said: Aye, I’m sure we all really believe that science can accurate state temperature trends from 12000 years ago. They simply travelled back in time with their thermometers. Multiple methods are used. But the best we have is oxygen isotopes in ice sheets. Oxygen has two stable isotopes O16 and O18. The warmer the ocean that water comes from the higher the ratio of O18 to O16 in ice cores. A similar method using carbon isotopes is used for deep dwelling shell forming creatures. There are many more. But those tend to be the gold standards. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/features/Paleoclimatology_OxygenBalance 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 2 minutes ago, Thorongil said: England didn’t get near its record today, a whole 1.3 below. Wow, they fair screwed that up! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thorongil Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Wow, they fair screwed that up! Well, if 0.1 of a degree in Wales is significant then 1.3 degrees is 13 times as significant. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 I think this constitutes confidently predicting 40 degrees again now for tomorrow. Certainly no mention of 50% probability in this forecast. England didn’t get near its record today, a whole 1.3 below. Wales STILL being VAR checked for it’s 0.1 degree. Only if you don't understand how probability or more generally statistics works, which I suppose you have already shown is the case.It is a prediction, but it is not necessarily a confident one. It would be impractical to show the associated uncertainty on a map like that, but it still exists. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted July 18, 2022 Share Posted July 18, 2022 4 minutes ago, Thorongil said: Well, if 0.1 of a degree in Wales is significant then 1.3 degrees is 13 times as significant. You don't think 1.3 degrees below the record is worth putting a warning out for? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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