Billy Gilmour

[HalfCutNinja]

5 minutes ago, Jambomo said:

I just think that Gilmour needs to go somewhere next season where he’ll play. I don’t see him getting a chance at Chelsea and he is at the stage where he need to really start playing matches, even if it’s a lower level, so that if what he needs is to prove himself to the likes of Tuchel, then he can do so.

His only choice is to start snapping people in training. Four or five would do it.

[HuttonDressedAsLahm]

10 hours ago, Jambomo said:

I just think that Gilmour needs to go somewhere next season where he’ll play. I don’t see him getting a chance at Chelsea and he is at the stage where he need to really start playing matches, even if it’s a lower level, so that if what he needs is to prove himself to the likes of Tuchel, then he can do so.

Going on loan hasn't done badly for Mount, Abraham, Kane, Ali etc so you would hope that that would work.

I'd expect Gilmour to do very well, on loan either to another Premier League team, or to a Championship side (perhaps, even abroad).  Regardless, there's no value whatsoever in him bench warming for another season.

We do need to find a way of getting Patterson, Gilmour, Turnbull, and Hickey some squad time after the European Championships.  Of course they may not have the long and successful careers that we all hope, but it hasn't done badly for the English or Welsh who have capped players with less game time than Gilmour, and certainly far less than Hickey or Turnbull (Ampadu, Hudson-Odoi, Harry Wilson, Neco Williams, Ben Woodburn).

The Welsh are in the position we found ourselves after Strachan - a team of aging core players.  They seem to be doing a far better job of transitioning.  They have 10 players aged 21 or under called up to their squad in the last 12 months, with a total of 77 caps.

To put it this way, we haven't capped a single player (currently) <23 years old in the last year.  That really doesn't suggest a long-term plan, though granted, it's a stronger position than we've been in recent years.

As has too often been the case, we cap players far too late in their careers, which is why we get so few to 50+ caps, and almost none to 70+.  This is hugely in contrast to NI, ROI, and Wales - all who have significantly out-performed us over recent years.  That noted, they are all in a transition period, so they may experience pain (just as we did) for the next few years.

The worst possible balance is having (relatively) inexperienced older players, and no (relatively) experienced younger players.  Most definitely an issue we've struggled with continuously over the years.

Edited April 8, 2021 by HuttonDressedAsLahm

[HalfCutNinja]

31 minutes ago, HuttonDressedAsLahm said:

Going on loan hasn't done badly for Mount, Abraham, Kane, Ali etc so you would hope that that would work.

I'd expect Gilmour to do very well, on loan either to another Premier League team, or to a Championship side (perhaps, even abroad).  Regardless, there's no value whatsoever in him bench warming for another season.

We do need to find a way of getting Patterson, Gilmour, Turnbull, and Hickey some squad time after the European Championships.  Of course they may not have the long and successful careers that we all hope, but it hasn't done badly for the English or Welsh who have capped players with less game time than Gilmour, and certainly far less than Hickey or Turnbull (Ampadu, Hudson-Odoi, Harry Wilson, Neco Williams, Ben Woodburn).

The Welsh are in the position we found ourselves after Strachan - a team of aging core players.  They seem to be doing a far better job of transitioning.  They have 10 players aged 21 or under called up to their squad in the last 12 months, with a total of 77 caps.

To put it this way, we haven't capped a single player (currently) <23 years old in the last year.  That really doesn't suggest a long-term plan, though granted, it's a stronger position than we've been in recent years.

As has too often been the case, we cap players far too late in their careers, which is why we get so few to 50+ caps, and almost none to 70+.  This is hugely in contrast to NI, ROI, and Wales - all who have significantly out-performed us over recent years.  That noted, they are all in a transition period, so they may experience pain (just as we did) for the next few years.

The worst possible balance is having (relatively) inexperienced older players, and no (relatively) experienced younger players.  Most definitely an issue we've struggled with continuously over the years.

That's a nice post, and a nice username. Well done.

[craigkillie]

1 hour ago, HuttonDressedAsLahm said:

As has too often been the case, we cap players far too late in their careers, which is why we get so few to 50+ caps, and almost none to 70+.  This is hugely in contrast to NI, ROI, and Wales - all who have significantly out-performed us over recent years.

I could be wrong, but I can't see this being the case with the current group. Robertson (27) has 43 caps, McGregor (27) has 29, McGinn (26) has 32, McTominay (24) has 22 and Tierney (23) has 19. Barring major injury or similar, I'd expect all of them to get to 50 caps, and all except McGregor to get to 70. That's a really nice core of guys who are roughly of a similar age, and Adams has obviously thrust himself into that group now too.

I fully expect the likes of Turnbull, Hickey and Gilmour to represent the next group breaking through into the squad - all of them are excellent prospects, and I think would have been capped over the last few months if we'd had any friendlies. Patterson might be the same, but I still feel like I've not seen enough from him to know if he's up to it  - he has still only started two Premiership games for Rangers and I felt he struggled in the European games. More likely for me is that Hickey ends up being our RWB (or RB if we revert to a back four).

Edited April 8, 2021 by craigkillie

[HuttonDressedAsLahm]

7 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

I could be wrong, but I can't see this being the case with the current group. Robertson (27) has 43 caps, McGregor (27) has 29, McGinn (26) has 32, McTominay (24) has 22 and Tierney (23) has 19. Barring major injury or similar, I'd expect all of them to get to 50 caps, and all except McGregor to get to 70. That's a really nice core of guys who are roughly of a similar age, and Adams has obviously thrust himself into that group now too.

I fully expect the likes of Turnbull, Hickey and Gilmour to represent the next group breaking through into the squad - all of them are excellent prospects, and I think would have been capped over the last few months if we'd had any friendlies. Patterson might be the same, but I still feel like I've not seen enough from him to know if he's up to it  - he has still only started two Premiership games for Rangers and I felt he struggled in the European games. More likely for me is that Hickey ends up being our RWB (or RB if we revert to a back four).

Your point isn't wrong, but the fact that Gordon is the only player on 50+ caps shows that this has been, and was a problem, even if it may not be as much going forward.  I agree that this current crop will do well, but they have been limited by a lack of senior experience around them.

We haven't exactly been blessed with a golden generation for some decades, but we did have a consistent team for a period of time (Brown, Caldwell, Fletcher, Miller, Hutton - even Weir, and Daily) who all went onto build up reasonable cap numbers.  Our issue was that they weren't replaced with anything approaching consistency, beyond the likes of Morrison and McArthur.

Our last 50-capped players are Naismith, Gordon, Brown, Hutton, Miller, Caldwell, Fletcher, and Weir (not necessarily in that order).  Only Miller, Fletcher, and Weir made it significantly past the 50-cap mark.

Most problematic, is that Christian Daily and David Weir are the only centre backs to hit 50 since Hendry did in 2001.  We've continuously lacked experience and consistency at one of the most vital positions on the pitch.

[LondonHMFC]

I can see Moyes going for him in the Summer, hasn't hidden the fact that he likes Gilmour, and if there is one position West Ham need more depth it is in the middle of the park. 

[accies1874]

I wonder if Robertson, McGinn, McGregor, Fraser and Christie ever played together for the under-21s. They obviously broke through at different times but that's a core of current key players of a similar age who, as far as I remember, were all thought of as exciting prospects.

[DiegoDiego]

My main issue about the "we should be capping more teenagers" argument is that there are mountains of evidence showing that humans are really not that good at predicting future performance of young sportsmen.

People get paid six figure salaries to identify talent and still get it hilariously wrong at times. That's why you see football clubs using a strategy of bulk buying prospects in the hope that one or two of them will come good and pay for the rest, and why bang average but consistent players have long and fruitful careers.

Why folk in an Angus bedsit think they can forecast the careers of Scottish eighteen year olds with any accuracy (and these predictions are always "nailed on") is beyond me.

[Gordopolis]

Your point isn't wrong, but the fact that Gordon is the only player on 50+ caps shows that this has been, and was a problem, even if it may not be as much going forward.  I agree that this current crop will do well, but they have been limited by a lack of senior experience around them.
We haven't exactly been blessed with a golden generation for some decades, but we did have a consistent team for a period of time (Brown, Caldwell, Fletcher, Miller, Hutton - even Weir, and Daily) who all went onto build up reasonable cap numbers.  Our issue was that they weren't replaced with anything approaching consistency, beyond the likes of Morrison and McArthur.
Our last 50-capped players are Naismith, Gordon, Brown, Hutton, Miller, Caldwell, Fletcher, and Weir (not necessarily in that order).  Only Miller, Fletcher, and Weir made it significantly past the 50-cap mark.
Most problematic, is that Christian Daily and David Weir are the only centre backs to hit 50 since Hendry did in 2001.  We've continuously lacked experience and consistency at one of the most vital positions on the pitch.

Good post. Tho Caldwell also made it past 50 playing mainly at CB. Totally agree though, the longer term strategy (capping obvious talent early, plus u18->u21->main squad approach and cohesion) has continuously been neglected in favour of short-term scramble for something that works for the next few fixtures. It's quite a rut we've been in, but fortunately it looks like there is now the opportunity to put in place a mini conveyer belt of talent for the next generation of players (Gilmour, Hickey, Turnbull etc).

[HuttonDressedAsLahm]

10 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

My main issue about the "we should be capping more teenagers" argument is that there are mountains of evidence showing that humans are really not that good at predicting future performance of young sportsmen.

People get paid six figure salaries to identify talent and still get it hilariously wrong at times. That's why you see football clubs using a strategy of bulk buying prospects in the hope that one or two of them will come good and pay for the rest, and why bang average but consistent players have long and fruitful careers.

Why folk in an Angus bedsit think they can forecast the careers of Scottish eighteen year olds with any accuracy (and these predictions are always "nailed on") is beyond me.

There's a big difference between predicting the success of 14-17-year olds with zero senior appearances, and predicting the success of established 18-21 year-olds who are already performing for their clubs at a high level.  You're making a straw man argument here, but let me bite anyway.

• Was Turnbull Celtic's best player in the latter half of the season?  Certainly one of the best.
• Has Hickey played well for Bologna this season, in a very competitive foreign league?  Yes he has.
• Has Patterson impressed for Rangers on his few opportunities?  Yes he has.  Is he is good as what we have at RB already?  Quite possibly.  Does he have the potential to be better than our current options?  Most definitely.
• Has Gilmour proven himself to be more than capable of playing for one of the best teams in England?  Yes, he most definitely has.

Note, no one is calling for the team to be turned upside down and replaced with Allan Campbell, Ryan Porteous, Ross McCrorie, Fraser Hornby, and Glenn Middleton.  In fact, no one is remotely suggesting that. 

Beyond that point, the risk balance is, "do we introduce a potential internationalist now, with the view that they either make up the squad and get experience, or play a game... or fail to make any decision, and instead give Paul Hanlon, Liam Bridcutt, and Mark McNulty a couple of caps".  Where does the risk/reward sit here?

 

[The Moonster]

23 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

My main issue about the "we should be capping more teenagers" argument is that there are mountains of evidence showing that humans are really not that good at predicting future performance of young sportsmen.

People get paid six figure salaries to identify talent and still get it hilariously wrong at times. That's why you see football clubs using a strategy of bulk buying prospects in the hope that one or two of them will come good and pay for the rest, and why bang average but consistent players have long and fruitful careers.

Why folk in an Angus bedsit think they can forecast the careers of Scottish eighteen year olds with any accuracy (and these predictions are always "nailed on") is beyond me.

Folk like Lee Wilkie and Kevin Kyle have caps, I don't think we should really be caring if a promising youngster actually turns out to be shite. It also doesn't need to be barrel loads of teenagers called up, just your most promising ones. Two right now would be Billy Gilmour and Aaron Hickey.  

[HuttonDressedAsLahm]

28 minutes ago, Gordopolis said:

1 hour ago, HuttonDressedAsLahm said:

Your point isn't wrong, but the fact that Gordon is the only player on 50+ caps shows that this has been, and was a problem, even if it may not be as much going forward.  I agree that this current crop will do well, but they have been limited by a lack of senior experience around them.
We haven't exactly been blessed with a golden generation for some decades, but we did have a consistent team for a period of time (Brown, Caldwell, Fletcher, Miller, Hutton - even Weir, and Daily) who all went onto build up reasonable cap numbers.  Our issue was that they weren't replaced with anything approaching consistency, beyond the likes of Morrison and McArthur.
Our last 50-capped players are Naismith, Gordon, Brown, Hutton, Miller, Caldwell, Fletcher, and Weir (not necessarily in that order).  Only Miller, Fletcher, and Weir made it significantly past the 50-cap mark.
Most problematic, is that Christian Daily and David Weir are the only centre backs to hit 50 since Hendry did in 2001.  We've continuously lacked experience and consistency at one of the most vital positions on the pitch.

Good post. Tho Caldwell also made it past 50 playing mainly at CB. Totally agree though, the longer term strategy (capping obvious talent early, plus u18->u21->main squad approach and cohesion) has continuously been neglected in favour of short-term scramble for something that works for the next few fixtures. It's quite a rut we've been in, but fortunately it looks like there is now the opportunity to put in place a mini conveyer belt of talent for the next generation of players (Gilmour, Hickey, Turnbull etc).

I absolutely agree.  We look to have a conveyor belt, which has gone through a very painful last few years.

My fear is that we fail to build on it by not bringing through the next generation.  Capping players at 25 either suggests our players mature much too late to establish a consistent national side, or that we fail to prepare for the future.  As you say, the "short-term scramble" has been how we've been living, at least for the last decade.

The likes of Robertson, Tierney, McTominay, Adams, McKenna, Dykes, and McGinn make me confident that the next 5 years at least is secure.  We've not had that for a while - too often our players begin performing at 28-31 when - at best - we can get 1/2 campaigns out of them playing at a high level (see Maloney, S.Fletcher, Snodgrass etc.)

The best (current) example of this failure is:

• McGregor: 28 this year, 29 caps
• Armstrong: 29 this year, 24 caps
• Griffiths: 31 this year, 22 caps

All of these players have been performing at the very top of (our modest domestic level/expectations) for 7-8 years, and yet they have nowhere near the number of caps as similar players for similar countries.

None of the above should be confused with (for example) the development of a player like Christie, would looked to have potential as a teenager but I certainly wouldn't have been looking for a call up.  He is probably performing at a level for Celtic and Scotland beyond what was expected 4 years ago (recent form excepted).

Edited April 8, 2021 by HuttonDressedAsLahm

[craigkillie]

59 minutes ago, accies1874 said:

I wonder if Robertson, McGinn, McGregor, Fraser and Christie ever played together for the under-21s. They obviously broke through at different times but that's a core of current key players of a similar age who, as far as I remember, were all thought of as exciting prospects.

Robertson hardly played for the U21s. He was there for three games, then went straight into the senior squad, but did go back and play an U21 game when the full squad didn't have a game. McGinn, Fraser, McGregor and Armstrong played together in an U21 group, but Christie only really came into things after the latter two were too old.

Robertson's debut U21 squad was a strong one in hindsight - I think there are 10 players here who went on to play for the senior team, including 5 or 6 who will go to the Euros. Kenny McLean was in the next squad too. However, they didn't do particularly well at the time, perhaps because of things like Clark Robertson being picked ahead of Andy Robertson at left-back and having a dumpling like Jordan Archer in goals. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/24352061

 

 

[Binos]

18 hours ago, HalfCutNinja said:

His only choice is to start snapping people in training. Four or five would do it.

Needs to snap the third choice keeper by the looks of it

[Jimi Shandrix]

4 hours ago, The Moonster said:

Folk like Lee Wilkie and Kevin Kyle have caps, I don't think we should really be caring if a promising youngster actually turns out to be shite. It also doesn't need to be barrel loads of teenagers called up, just your most promising ones. Two right now would be Billy Gilmour and Aaron Hickey.  

Oh for a CB as good as Lee Wilkie now.

[craigkillie]

Oh for a CB as good as Lee Wilkie now.

I liked Lee Wilkie, but every single centre-back in our current squad apart from Considine and Hendry are better than he was at his peak.

[Jimi Shandrix]

1 minute ago, craigkillie said:

I liked Lee Wilkie, but every single centre-back in our current squad apart from Considine and Hendry are better than he was at his peak.

I like @craigkillie but that is one hot take.

[Binos]

30 minutes ago, Jimi Shandrix said:

Oh for a CB as good as Lee Wilkie now.

As ludicrous as it sounds around time he was in Scotland team dynamo kiev were lining up a £1m bid

 

Or the sun could've just made that up

[Gordopolis]

It's not really a like for like comparison anyway - Wilkie's career was effectively shut down by serious injury at the age of 23.

The likes of Hanley and Cooper have had 6 or 7 more years in their prime to improve and showcase their abilities. Cooper was nowhere at 23 (League 2). Gallagher too - ironically playing for Dundee at 23 but in the Scottish second tier. Tierney - 23 and absolutely outstanding in the EPL - is the only comparable (in terms of career stage) and clear cut better defender than Wilkie imo.

[HalfCutNinja]

2 hours ago, Gordopolis said:

It's not really a like for like comparison anyway - Wilkie's career was effectively shut down by serious injury at the age of 23.

The likes of Hanley and Cooper have had 6 or 7 more years in their prime to improve and showcase their abilities. Cooper was nowhere at 23 (League 2). Gallagher too - ironically playing for Dundee at 23 but in the Scottish second tier. Tierney - 23 and absolutely outstanding in the EPL - is the only comparable (in terms of career stage) and clear cut better defender than Wilkie imo.
 

Wilkie was quality, absolute silk on the ball and a man mountain. Its just typical fans revisionism to label him pish. He was one of the best couple of CB's in the country and very young. 

As you ably demonstrate compared to those guys and McKenna etc he was better than most of them and worse than none at the same age. McKenna at the same age was playing for Aberdeen. Wilkie could have gone and played EPL with a bit of luck, and was on the verge of a move to Rangers before he got injured.