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The Big Relegation Thread


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2 hours ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

Because my phone screen was big enough to show 7 teams at once 

Hibs are 250/1 and Livingston 500/1

 

I admit I know sod all about betting but how can we be 150/1 and 10 points ahead of Livi at 500/1?

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2 hours ago, topcat(The most tip top) said:

That's easily fixed

Shut your festering gob, you tit! Your type makes me puke! You vacuous Toffee-nosed malodorous pervert!!!!

Happy to Help

Surely that's not offence; that's abuse?

Is this the five minute argument?

 

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2 hours ago, nsr said:

I admit I know sod all about betting but how can we be 150/1 and 10 points ahead of Livi at 500/1?

I'm confused too. Especially as we must be odds on to finish in the Top 6, meaning that we couldn't even be in the relegation mix after 4th April - and 41 points must amount to safety most/all seasons anyway. A shady far-eastern syndicate must have put serious money on us not getting a point for the rest of the season and affected the odds - what do they know that we don't?

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47 minutes ago, Swello said:

I'm confused too. Especially as we must be odds on to finish in the Top 6, meaning that we couldn't even be in the relegation mix after 4th April - and 41 points must amount to safety most/all seasons anyway. A shady far-eastern syndicate must have put serious money on us not getting a point for the rest of the season and affected the odds - what do they know that we don't?

It's worth noting that these are different bookies  Skybet are offering 500/1 on Livingston but William Hills have them at 66/1. Hibs are only 100/1 with William Hills but 250/1 at lots of otherfirms

William Hills are the only firm with prices quoted for all 9 on that list.

They price the market as follows
 

Hamilton: 11/10
St Mirren: 11/4
Hearts: 4/1
Ross County: 12/1
St Johnstone: 16/1
Kilmarnock: 22/1
Livingston: 66/1
Hibs: 100/1
Motherwell: 150/1
 

OR presented in terms of Implied probability

image.png.65f5f1ec47d8d647de52e19b8fe29ef8.png

 

Edited by topcat(The most tip top)
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Really surprised at the short odds on Killy.  Had a look at their results, looks like 1 win in the last 13 league games with a couple of draws.  Granted they've played both of the ugly sisters in that time.  

Obviously, as Killy bring great numbers to Paisley with usually a really good atmosphere I'm not wanting them to go down.  Pretty shit run tho...  

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Screenshot_20200129-213847_Chrome.jpg

Current situation.

This is the business those clubs completed over the window -* St Mirren expected to sign one more striker. 

Who were the winners? And who looks worse off?

Kilmarnock

In: Kirk Broadfoot (Undisclosed fee, St Mirren), Harry Bunn (free agent), Nick Kabamba (Undisclosed fee, Hartlepool)

Out: Iain Wilson (Loan, QOS), Dom Thomas (Loan, Dunfermline), Simeon Jackson (contract expired)

Loans expired: Liam Millar (Liverpool), Osman Sow (Dundee United)

St Johnstone

In: Jamie McCart (Undisclosed fee, ICT), Matt Butcher (Loan, Bournemouth), Isaiah Jones (Loan, Middlesbrough)

Out: Ross Callachan (Loan, Dundee), Matty Kennedy (£70k, Aberdeen)

Loans expired: Madis Vihmann (FC Flora)

Ross County

In: Coll Donaldson (Undisclosed fee, ICT), Jordan Tillson (Free transfer, Exeter City), Oli Shaw (Undisclosed fee, Hibernian)

Out: Jack Ruddy (end of contract), Mark Gallagher (Undisclosed fee, Aberdeen), Brian Graham (Undisclosed fee, Partick Thistle)

Loans expired: Ewan Henderson (Celtic), Simon Power (Norwich City)

St Mirren

In: Peter Urminsky (Free transfer, Spartak Trnava), Conor McCarthy (Undisclosed fee, Cork City), Akin Famewo (Loan, Norwich), Lee Hodson (Loan, Gillingham), Jamie McGrath (end of contract, Dundalk), Alex Jakubiak (Loan, Watford)

Out: Conor McBrearty (Loan, Stenhousemuir), Kirk Broadfoot (Undisclosed fee, Kilmarnock), Paul McGinn (Undisclosed fee, Hibernian), Ethan Erhahon (Loan, Barnsley), Nick McAllister (Loan, Albion Rovers)

Loans expired: Sean McLoughlin (Hull)

Hamilton 

In: Sam Woods (Loan, Crystal Palace), Andy Dales (Loan, Scunthorpe), David Templeton (Free transfer, Burton)

Out: Owain Fon Williams (Loan, Dunfermline), Leon McCann (Free transfer, Airdrie), George Stanger (Loan, Forfar), Darian MacKinnon (Free transfer, Partick Thistle), Ronan Hughes (Loan, Stirling Albion)

Loans expired: Sam Stubbs (Middlesbrough), Adrian Beck (Union St Gilliose), Korede Adodoyin (Everton)

Hearts

In: Toby Sibbick (Loan, Barnsley), Marcel Langer (Free transfer, Schalke), Donis Avdijaj (free agent), Liam Boyce (£150k, Burton)

Out: Kevin Silva (Free transfer, Toronto), Kelby Mason (Loan, Edinburgh City), Christophe Berra (Loan, Dundee), Glenn Whelan (released), Jake Mulraney (£200k, Atlanta), Calumn Morrison (Loan, East Fife), Craig Wighton (Loan, Arbroath), Aidan Keena (Free transfer, Hartlepool), Rory Currie (Loan, Linfield), Steven MacLean (Loan, Raith Rovers)

Loans expired:

Edited by RandomGuy.
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St Mirren are currently on there best run of the season having only lost 2 of our last 8 and those games being against the 2 arse cheeks. 
 

Kirk Broadfoot has been no where near the squad for these games so he’s in no way a loss to the starting 11, as a squad player yes but the 2 new boys look like decent fits having conceded only 1 goal in there 3 games so far and that being against Rangers at Ibrox. 
 

Paul McGinn did play in most of those 8 games but in Lee Hodson we’ve someone who is every bit as good as McGinn if not better (slightly). 
 

If 1 of the new strikers can start converting the chances we’ve been creating into goals then I believe we have a much better starting 11 than we have done for the last few months. We will be relying on luck though that we don’t suffer  another defensive crisis like we’ve already had this season. 
 

 

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7 minutes ago, Saint Shug said:

St Mirren are currently on there best run of the season having only lost 2 of our last 8 and those games being against the 2 arse cheeks. 

*hears form table alarm*

Screenshot_20200201-093224_Chrome.thumb.jpg.729827db5fc1968b714ef853b15188c9.jpg

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9 minutes ago, RandomGuy. said:

*hears form table alarm*

Screenshot_20200201-093224_Chrome.thumb.jpg.729827db5fc1968b714ef853b15188c9.jpg

Thanks for backing up exactly what I’ve said.
 

We’re currently in 10th in the league , from memory I don’t think we’ve been higher than 8th this season, yet here we are sitting in 8th in the form table. Best run of the season indeed. 

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Screenshot_20200201-170439_Chrome.thumb.jpg.f7167831ef4ded4e049ee12cbf7350f9.jpg

Kilmarnock the big winners, crushing victory over County.

St Mirren lose a two goal lead, and St Johnstone concede an equaliser in the final minute. Frustration for both. Hearts pick up a point at a bogey ground for them, and keep momentum going.

Screenshot_20200201-170455_Chrome.thumb.jpg.ded83fd35858e88aba8a4b3632e6b0df.jpg

Everybody except Ross County edge away from Hamilton, while Hearts finally move off the bottom. Kilmarnocks win comes exactly when they needed it.

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3 hours ago, RandomGuy. said:

Screenshot_20200201-170439_Chrome.thumb.jpg.f7167831ef4ded4e049ee12cbf7350f9.jpg

Kilmarnock the big winners, crushing victory over County.

St Mirren lose a two goal lead, and St Johnstone concede an equaliser in the final minute. Frustration for both. Hearts pick up a point at a bogey ground for them, and keep momentum going.

Screenshot_20200201-170455_Chrome.thumb.jpg.ded83fd35858e88aba8a4b3632e6b0df.jpg

Everybody except Ross County edge away from Hamilton, while Hearts finally move off the bottom. Kilmarnocks win comes exactly when they needed it.

Wednesday night is a massive one at St. Mirren Park. If we beat Hamilton, (on basis Hamilton lost to Celtic tomorrow), then we are going to be hard to catch. 

If Accies pull a win out though, it's definitely squeaky bum time. 

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Just now, djchapsticks said:

Wednesday night is a massive one at St. Mirren Park. If we beat Hamilton, (on basis Hamilton lost to Celtic tomorrow), then we are going to be hard to catch. 

If Accies pull a win out though, it's definitely squeaky bum time. 

I think I want you to beat them, I think. Maybe a draw.

Really just want one side to be be completely cut adrift, as I'm not convinced anyone who finishes 11th will lose over two legs.

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