John Lambies Doos Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Nobody is going to invade Iran ffs.This. Any ground invasion into Iran would ultimately lead to a humiliating retreat by the USA.Not happening 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carnoustie Young Guvnor Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) On 09/01/2020 at 16:34, Theroadlesstravelled said: Utter nonsense. Which bit? Here is some food for thought. A million troops https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/world-news/iran-war-invasion-middle-east-16778457, that's a million ground troops, not support staff etc actual fighting frontline soldiers. Typically you actually need at least three times as many as any estimate, as soldiers are not in the field constantly, they are rotated and some are obviously injured, killed etc. 3.5 times is more typical, so you're looking at 3.5 million troops. Which the US doesn't have and would require conscription on a scale not seen since WWII. Vietnam saw 3.4 million military personnel deployed in total (not all soldiers) over 11 years, with 2.2 million coming from conscription. This would dwarf that. NATO itself has about 3 million troops, so if you used all of them you would just about be there. Though this is highly unlikely and would create lots of problems in other areas. Twenty thousand casualties in the first 48 hours? Well that't not a figure plucked from the sky. America modelled a war against Iran in 2002.......and Iran won. Inflicting twenty thousand casualties minimum in the first 48 hours. The US was using technology it didn't actually have at the time btw, predicting what it would be like in five years. So this was with 2007 technology, more advanced than we used to invade Iraq for example. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millennium_Challenge_2002 An invasion of Iran is highly unlikely, for the simple reason it would most likely fail, and even if it didn't the cost in lives and money would be far far far too high to be politically sustainable. Iran is not like Afghanistan or Iraq. This is not a weak country that has been under crippling sanctions (though it has had sanctions) like Iraq for twenty years, bombed back to the stone age in 1990 and sporadically bombed since. Or like Afghanistan impoverished and underdeveloped. This is a country four times the size of Iraq with a population of 80 million and a very strong, modern military. It is a highly militarised country, they have been expecting and preparing for a US invasion for decades. It has a large amount of hard and soft power in the region, and the tacit support of all Shia Muslims in neighbouring countries (about 200 million in total). America (or NATO) has never really done this since WWII, invade a state with a highly developed military and integrated infrastructure etc. We generally attack non-state actors (ISIS), or states that have been brought to their knees by bombings and sanctions over a long period of time before we set foot there. Plus Iran would immediately, as they threatened and as Saddam attempted to do in 1990, make it a regional conflict by attacking Israel and UAE and possibly Turkey too. Invasion of Iran is an absolute non-starter and I think what happened is Trump had it explained to him that night and shat his pants, rightly so. Edited January 11, 2020 by Carnoustie Young Guvnor 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 It's fairly obvious by the statements from both Trump and Rouhani that they are trying to deescalate this.Trump would normally have come out all guns blazing after the Iranian missiles but didn't.Iran wouldn't normally admit to downing a commercial airliner so quickly either. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sureiknow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 So it looks like Trump won't be bombing Iran forward to the Stone Age then. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sjc Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, sureiknow said: So it looks like Trump won't be bombing Iran forward to the Stone Age then. Don't believe everything you read in the Western media. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carnoustie Young Guvnor Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 9 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: It's fairly obvious by the statements from both Trump and Rouhani that they are trying to deescalate this. Trump would normally have come out all guns blazing after the Iranian missiles but didn't. Iran wouldn't normally admit to downing a commercial airliner so quickly either. Exactly, can you remember another time a country was able to fire ballistic missiles (22 of them) at ostensibly American targets and there was no response? Trump shat his pants as he will have had laid out for him what a war with Iran would look like. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beefybake Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 (edited) 54 minutes ago, AUFC90 said: Iraqs no Iran. In fact it's not even close. One is a major player in that region the other can barely be described as organised let alone ready to fight a war. The Yanks had about 300 miles of flat land and straight roads in the "race to Baghdad". Good luck doing that to Iran. The Russians found Afghanistan horrendous due to the mountainous terrain and the determination of its people. Iran is 10x the quagmire even without considering that Iran actually has a large, functioning and well trained army. The Young British Soldier. by Rudyard Kipling (1895) ".... When you're wounded and left on Afghanistan's plains, And the women come out to cut up what remains, Jest roll to your rifle and blow out your brains.... ". The 'Great Powers' never seem to learn from history about what is in store for them in Afghanistan. I can't see that Iran would be much different. Edited January 11, 2020 by beefybake 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 So it looks like Trump won't be bombing Iran forward to the Stone Age then.You're a fucking idiot. Iran's rich cultural heritage and scientific/philosophical past has helped shape our modern world. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Just now, John Lambies Doos said: 19 minutes ago, sureiknow said: So it looks like Trump won't be bombing Iran forward to the Stone Age then. You're a fucking idiot. Iran's rich cultural heritage and scientific/philosophical past has helped shape our modern world. Pity none of it reached you. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Pity none of it reached you.Harsh but fair.... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melanius Mullarkey Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 37 minutes ago, sureiknow said: So it looks like Trump won't be bombing Iran forward to the Stone Age then. Location: TFS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theroadlesstravelled Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Iran can’t even tell the difference between a passenger jet and a missile with their 1970s Russian technology and people think that they have the capability of warring with a super power. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, Theroadlesstravelled said: Iran can’t even tell the difference between a passenger jet and a missile with their 1970s Russian technology and people think that they have the capability of warring with a super power. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Clearly Iranian planes look a bit dodgy on a radar. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SweeperDee Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 Clearly Iranian planes look a bit dodgy on a radar. Got to watch out for those iran-y looking planes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Priti priti priti Patel Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 5 hours ago, SandyCromarty said: So now, as opposed to your previous post, admit that America does have hypersonic capability. No, because it doesn't. America flew an unarmed hypersonic glide vehicle once, nine years ago, in testing for an eventual missile and then withdrew funds from its development. America doesn't have a hypersonic weapon. It isn't "leading the race at Mach 20" because it doesn't have anything, while Russia has a deployed Mach 27 missile. I am sorry that you were wrong. Can we move on? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sureiknow Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 38 minutes ago, Theroadlesstravelled said: Iran can’t even tell the difference between a passenger jet and a missile with their 1970s Russian technology and people think that they have the capability of warring with a super power. Or that they should be allowed to become a Nuclear Power. That will not happen. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melanius Mullarkey Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 43 minutes ago, SweeperDee said: Got to watch out for those iran-y looking planes. It’s these ones you need to watch as well tbf. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miguel Sanchez Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 56 minutes ago, coprolite said: Clearly Iranian planes look a bit dodgy on a radar. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 11, 2020 Share Posted January 11, 2020 43 minutes ago, sureiknow said: Or that they should be allowed to become a Nuclear Power. That will not happen. There were arrangements in place to stop that happening, until Trump decided he didn't want Obama getting the credit. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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