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Thanks.

Three further comments.

If comparing to algorithm results, then "accurate" isn't really the correct word.

Why not just be "honest and realistic"? Why bring "positive" into it?

"Actual exams". Which ones are these?

Compared to the "algorithm" results. In our subject they downgraded only a handful of pupils because we went through them and tried as best as possible to be honest and realistic while positive. We also didn't feel that we could give high estimates for pupils who probably would have went on to do well but we didn't have evidence for (people who bombed the prelim but had subsequently pulled their socks up in class or who had got a tutor or who had been doing well when working through lots of past papers during Easter or whatever). Across the school we weren't afraid to give D and F estimates where they were justifed. I think our estimates compared to the actual exams are usually around 80-90 % accurate (and of course while some people you expect to pass well totally bomb, you also get a fair few who perform better than expected) so you will never get 100 % accuracy. Our estimated number of A-C students at Higher in my subject was only slightly higher (maybe 2-3 %) than the 5 year average (and that was a wee bit harsh as I had a good class this year) whereas it looks like some schools were putting in estimates that suggeated their number of A-C students in a subject was going to jump up by 15-20% which is clearly a nonsense. We are now in a situation where we are ruing the time and energy spent trying to make the estimates honest and realistic and wish we'd just stuck everyone down for what they potentially could have got if every single thing went for them and they got lucky with the questions and they had a private tutor and they felt so good going into the hall they were practically floating.


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Thanks.

 

Three further comments.

 

If comparing to algorithm results, then "accurate" isn't really the correct word.

 

Why not just be "honest and realistic"? Why bring "positive" into it?

 

"Actual exams". Which ones are these?

 

 

 

 

 

1. I guess not, but at time we were told the information the algorithm results WERE the exam results. So as far as the Headteacher was concerned, we had been fairly accurate in predicting what the pupils would get on their certificate.

 

2. We should always be positive, but without taking the piss. If someone was a borderline A/B candidate, you'd be looking to estimate an A. If someone had totally failed the prelim but had put in some effort and so had a chance of getting close to passing you might estimate a C. That is positive whilst not always being realistic in a sense as the borderline cases aren't always go upwards (and of course some go the other way when you are fairly confident they'll get something but fluff the exam). That ia totally different from looking at someone who got 50 odd percent in the prelim and estimating an A or B, or estimating a C for someone who got 12% in their prelim and hasn't tried a leg all year.

 

3. Sorry, have just went back to read the original post. In terms of estimates/predictions and "actual exams" - we do this as a matter of course every year before the exam diet so we will have previous evidence of how actuate or otherwise our predictions are. Some will do better than you predict, some will go down but on the whole if we e.g. estimate 15 As in Higher Physics in a year, then maybe between 12 and 18 pupils actually get an A in their exam then that is seen as being fairly accurate. If we estimated 15 As and only 3 or 4 got an A we would be questioned why our estimates were so bad - firstly by the Headteacher then the Council Education Officer. It also helps with appeals (less so these days but in the past) and allows you to make up class lists before the exam results are known.

 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

These briefings need binned and made once weekly. It’s like a mini episode of Eastenders - crying , fear, apologies, blame, a supporting cast of bit part players. 

Oh and the R rate “may be above 1”. Make of that what you will

Aye, while restrictions are still in place, less communication is definitely a good idea.

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1 minute ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Aye, while restrictions are still in place, less communication is definitely a good idea.

They can announce things via a statement/social media, rather than having the big “look at me” set up. Honestly think people like Leitch are loving their 10 mins of fame every other day 

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11 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

These briefings need binned and made once weekly. It’s like a mini episode of Eastenders - crying , fear, apologies, blame, a supporting cast of bit part players. 

Oh and the R rate “may be above 1”. Make of that what you will

If only there was an option open to people who didn't want to see the briefing. 

6 minutes ago, Steven W said:

Whats happening with a vaccine? f**k all it looks like. 

I think there was a collective global decision made that if a vaccine hadn't been discovered, shown to be effective and rigorously tested to show that there were no side effects by a week last Thursday they were going to stop trying to develop one. I mean it's no longer a Public Health issue said the sage with the graphs earlier. 

Edited by John MacLean
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Realised yesterday that I have a weird taste and smell In my mouth/nose and have been feeling a bit below par today. Realised the taste thing is a symptom and am now in self-isolation for 10 days and have to have a Covid test. 😡

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2 minutes ago, Jambomo said:

Realised yesterday that I have a weird taste and smell In my mouth/nose and have been feeling a bit below par today. Realised the taste thing is a symptom and am now in self-isolation for 10 days and have to have a Covid test. 😡

How much would it cost me to have you passionately kiss @Thereisalight..?

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17 minutes ago, Thereisalight.. said:

These briefings need binned and made once weekly. It’s like a mini episode of Eastenders - crying , fear, apologies, blame, a supporting cast of bit part players. 

Oh and the R rate “may be above 1”. Make of that what you will

The briefings could be shorter, but it's good that journalists get to ask questions etc.

That said, the questions from the journalists are quite poor, and seem to mostly be along the line of getting the FM to expand on what she's said. Sometimes the same question more than once.

Very rarely do questions come up which challenge the FM, and, when they do, they are rarely answered there and then.

I can't believe that journalists genuinely ask if Orkney will be getting locked down because 3 cases have popped up, nor can I believe that no one is even thinking of asking the FM why, if the virus is as bad as she wants us to believe, hospital admissions and deaths show no signs of increasing.

If it's going to just be a sook fest, there is no point in having a Q&A

Edited by Todd_is_God
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Interesting to hear the Health Secretary talking about establishing a support framework to help people through recovery and rehabilitation from Covid. 

This shocked me as some people would almost have you believe that if you catch Covid you either die (and you were probably ill/old anyway and your time was basically up in any case) or you sit on the couch for a week or so watching Netflix and occasionally coughing. 

Who would have thought that death might not be the only health related issue to contracting Covid which is, of course, no longer dangerous. 

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These briefings need binned and made once weekly. It’s like a mini episode of Eastenders - crying , fear, apologies, blame, a supporting cast of bit part players. 
Oh and the R rate “may be above 1”. Make of that what you will
Why on earth do you watch them. Eastenders imo should be binned it's dugshite hence I choose not to watch it rather than sit through it then whinge about how shite it was.
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6 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

Russia are claiming they've got one in use already

Aye, feels like our boys seem to be dragging their heels. No updates, just silence on what, in all honesty is the only way out of this.

The one thing in all this that the UK looked like doing right, was a vaccine, but doesn't look like there'll be one this year anyway. 

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