Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Todd_is_God]

8 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

21 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Even at 1% of our target capacity of 65,000 tests per day it would take 23 years to infect everyone in Scotland.

That assumption is based on the percentage % remaining as it is. Obviously that could spiral upwards if we get back to a community transmission situation. The vibe at the briefing today is that they will reimpose measures in some shape or form if that happens.

True.

That said, a PCR test alone cannot be used as an indication of the current level community transmission. Maybe in March, but there is far too much movement now to categorically link cases.

In the absence of a noticeable increase in hospitalisations any imposition of strict measures should be strongly resisted.

Edited August 31, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, Wee Bully said:

^^^^ Verge of tears.

^^^ doing it wrong

9 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

That assumption is based on the percentage % remaining as it is. Obviously that could spiral upwards if we get back to a community transmission situation. The vibe at the briefing today is that they will reimpose measures in some shape or form if that happens.

Oh goody, let's all get ready to make pointless gesture 'sacrifices' again to keep the schools open (and spreading the disease). 

9 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

160 new cases in Scotland announced today, First Minister is concerned.

Really worrying poll result from the US, regarding vaccine uptake.  A large majority of African Americans are likely to be resistent to a Covid vaccine, white Americans are 50-50 with HIspanics a little higher.  

If (almost certainly when) vaccine treatments are available in enough doses for the general public then it'll likely be made a condition of entry for travel. Not getting their week in Benidorm will be enough to force the majority of thick anti-vaxxers to pipe down. 

The US is a different case altogether as cross-border travel is far less common and there are major structural issues with both access to healthcare and the history of providing 'experimental' medicine to the black community in play. We should just leave them to themselves right now anyway and not let people in from that basketcase unless they're seeking asylum.  

Edited August 31, 2020 by vikingTON

[Steven W]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

True.

That said, a PCR test alone cannot be used as an indication of the current level community transmission. Maybe in March, but there is far too much movement now to categorically link cases.

In the absence of a noticeable increase in hospitalisations any imposition of strict measures should be strongly resisted.

In the main I don't disagree. And I've agreed with much of what you've said on this thread.

But the following equation must make sense to you.

More infections = more hospitalisations = more deaths.

We're now getting more infections. In time that will translate into more hospitalisations, and eventually more deaths. And when we reach that point, we'll have Lockdown 2. 

And then we'll come out of lockdown and go through the whole thing again!

[ICTChris]

1 minute ago, virginton said:

If (almost certainly when) vaccine treatments are available in enough doses for the general public then it'll likely be made a condition of entry for travel. Not getting their week in Benidorm will be enough to get the majority of thick anti-vaxxers to pipe down. 

The US is a different case as cross-border travel is far less common and there are major structural issues with both access to healthcare and providing 'experimental' medicine to the black community. We should just leave them to themselves right now anyway and not let people in from that basketcase unless they're seeking asylum.  

If we get a reliable vaccine I'd be happy to make more than just travel contingent on it.  Not admitting unvaccinated children into schools, withdrawing state benefits for vaccine refusers would be fine with me.  Going full Daily Express front page outrage is justified on this one IMO.

There is other polling that shows a far higher support for taking a vaccine among black Americans but there is still a lag.  As you say, significant issues with their healthcare system now and in the past (legacy of Tuskegee perhaps) have caused this. 

[Todd_is_God]

9 minutes ago, Steven W said:

But the following equation must make sense to you.

More infections = more hospitalisations = more deaths.

The fatal flaw in this equation is the assumption that there are more infections.

Just because you test more, and find proportionately more, doesn't mean there actually are more.

We've seen a steady 'increase' in infections now for almost two months.

Over the same period hospital numbers have reduced, and deaths are almost non existant.

Consciously and morally we dealt fine with 150 people per day dying in Scotland before March 2020. Why must we suddenly do anything and everything we can to stop that temporarily climbing by an insignificant amount?

Lockdown was a social and economic disaster. Doing it again when the effects are clear would be moronic.

Edited August 31, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Beans on Toast]

4 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

If we get a reliable vaccine I'd be happy to make more than just travel contingent on it.  Not admitting unvaccinated children into schools, withdrawing state benefits for vaccine refusers would be fine with me.  Going full Daily Express front page outrage is justified on this one IMO.

There is other polling that shows a far higher support for taking a vaccine among black Americans but there is still a lag.  As you say, significant issues with their healthcare system now and in the past (legacy of Tuskegee perhaps) have caused this. 

I think the issue is any vaccine available in the short term isn't going to be reliable. I'd certainly not want to take a vaccine where the long term impacts are not known. And I won't want my kids, who are likely to avoid the worst of it anyway, to take something thats been rushed through.

[Jacksgranda]

25 minutes ago, Snafu said:

I see an ASDA worker who tested positive on Saturday had worked shifts on Thursday and Friday. Management giving staff a hard time if they are displaying symptoms and need to take time off.

Will supermarkets shut just like pubs or small shops for a deep clean I wonder or does their vital/essential  status prevent this from happening?

https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/edinburgh-asda-worker-scared-angry-18852879

"donations to the government", shirley?

[effeffsee_the2nd]

If indeed a high percentage of those with covid are a-symptomatic then these increased cases are actually a good thing as they will now be isolating rather than heading to the gynp pub work or school. Nowhere in Europe has any appetite for return to stay at home lockdowns so I doubt we will either tbh

[Steven W]

17 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The fatal flaw in this equation is the assumption that there are more infections.

Just because you test more, and find proportionately more, doesn't mean there actually are more.

We've seen a steady 'increase' in infections now for almost two months.

Over the same period hospital numbers have reduced, and deaths are almost non existant.

Consciously and morally we dealt fine with 150 people per day dying in Scotland before March 2020. Why must we suddenly do anything and everything we can to stop that temporarily climbing by an insignificant amount?

Lockdown was a social and economic disaster. Doing it again when the effects are clear would be moronic.

Good points that you make.

This whole thing is being fed on hysteria (as an example I read that the death rate jumped above the 5 year average a few weeks ago. This was put down to the heatwave they had in England. Yet I don't recall any guidance, daily briefings etc during that particular spell).

But for all that, and when you consider NS is "concerned" about today's infection numbers, you've got imgaine that A) they're only going to go up and B) will lead to localised  /  substantial lockdowns.

I personally hope not, but it seems inevitable. (It'll also render NS' relutance to ease restrictions when we at infections less than 10 a day seem all the more baffling).

 

[Steven W]

7 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

If indeed a high percentage of those with covid are a-symptomatic then these increased cases are actually a good thing as they will now be isolating rather than heading to the gynp pub work or school. Nowhere in Europe has any appetite for return to stay at home lockdowns so I doubt we will either tbh

Give it a few weeks

[tamthebam]

3 hours ago, Snafu said:

https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/grieving-family-launch-legal-action-22602782

Grieving family sue Scottish Government over hospital bed clearance virus policy

The family of a pensioner who died of Covid-19 after being moved from hospital to a care home are to sue Scottish Government ministers over their bed-clearance policy.

The case involving Rodger Laing, 80, is believed to be the first legal action of its kind.

Lawyers acting for his family say Health Secretary Jeane Freeman and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon could be called to explain why he was put at risk.

Rodger’s family had taken out a guardianship order but say this was ignored when health chiefs decided to move him.

They believe Holyrood ministers, and not doctors, were responsible for driving the bed-clearance policy which led to his discharge.

The family’s lawyer, Patrick McGuire, a senior partner at Thompsons Solicitors, said: “As emergency measures were brought in during the pandemic, the Scottish Government and its ministers took control from health authorities and they will become respondents in any legal action which takes place.

“Because of that, both the First Minister, the Health Secretary and their advisers will need to answer questions and even give evidence as required about the decisions they took and the orders they gave during that time. We will be looking at whether the family’s power of attorney was breached, along with all other concerning aspects of this tragic case.”

Ex-gamekeeper and car salesman Rodger died 22 days after being moved from a dementia ward at Midlothian Community Hospital in Bonnyrigg to Drummond Grange care home in Lasswade.

His son Rodney, 49, said: “We went through the legal process of taking out a power of attorney in 2017 to ensure dad’s health and welfare were legally protected.

“It gave us the legal right to decide what treatment he got and where he was cared for But we believe that was completely ­overruled and dad was moved, against our wishes, into a care home where, ­unbeknown to us, people had already died from Covid-19.

“We had been told we needed to consider dad being moved at the end of last year. But by February, a suitable place still hadn’t been found.

“With lockdown under way, we believed things had been put on the back burner but we got a call at the beginning of May saying they wanted to move him in to Drummond Grange.”

Rodger’s daughter Gail Young, 53, said: “The conversations got heated. We didn’t want dad moved because it wasn’t safe.

“But I was told dad was being moved and it was out of her hands. I hung up the phone in tears of anger and frustration.”

Rodger, who gave a negative Covid-19 test before leaving hospital, died on May 27 – two days after testing positive.

The family’s local MSP, Miles Briggs, said: “Rodger’s family are one of a number who are growing increasingly angry at the way their elderly loved ones have been treated and the lack of answers from the Scottish Government.”

 

Key there is how and why the power of attorney was over ruled. If a P.O.A can be swept aside this easily then that is a 'can of worms' opened.

 

That's the same law firm who were complaining during lockdown that the Courts were shut and that staff should be back working in them to allow access to justice and nothing to do with lawyers missing out on fat fees of course. It might have been Mr McGuire himself who was doing the moaning.

Rather embarrassingly Thompson's are also the law firm the Court staff trade union uses and I think words were had...

[effeffsee_the2nd]

Good points that you make.
This whole thing is being fed on hysteria (as an example I read that the death rate jumped above the 5 year average a few weeks ago. This was put down to the heatwave they had in England. Yet I don't recall any guidance, daily briefings etc during that particular spell).
But for all that, and when you consider NS is "concerned" about today's infection numbers, you've got imgaine that A) they're only going to go up and B) will lead to localised  /  substantial lockdowns.
I personally hope not, but it seems inevitable. (It'll also render NS' relutance to ease restrictions when we at infections less than 10 a day seem all the more baffling).
 

I doubt it can really be affordable, no one - business or personal would have any confidence in making bookings, plans etc when there is such a high chance of it being cancelled. We can’t just stay in lockdown and hope the virus goes away before we run out of money. The lockdown was part of the uk government’s “delay” phase ie to buy time till we figure out how to manage this. Life simply has to go on

[tamthebam]

1 hour ago, Snafu said:

Had no idea that the vaccine will include tracking chips.

154 comments

 

Doesn't like microchips. Fears being tracked. Posts his looney views on the Internet...

Joined up thinking there 

[dirty dingus]

Not been on here for a bit.

Is there any studies or evidence of the virus mutating? I was talking to a guy in the pub, lecturer in biology who knew his onions on epedemiology, he said it will likely be weakening and become more contagious as it mutates to continue it's longivity. He also talked about it burning out having blasted through the vulnerable. I didn't get that bit as a hot member of staff delivered more beers.

 

edit - Just read Trumps new virus guy favours herd immunity. Shit going to hit the fan just about election times = posponment?

 

Edited August 31, 2020 by dirty dingus

[tamthebam]

1 minute ago, dirty dingus said:

Not been on here for a bit.

Is there any studies or evidence of the virus mutating? I was talking to a guy in the pub, lecturer in biology who knew his onions on epedemiology, he said it will likely be weakening and become more contagious as it mutates to continue it's longivity. He also talked about it burning out having blasted through the vulnerable. I didn't get that bit as a hot member of staff delivered more beers.

Never mind that virology shit.

Hot member of staff- pics or...

[Todd_is_God]

10 minutes ago, Snafu said:

Always preferred the crinkle cut ones myself

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Billy Jean King said:

1 hour ago, MP_MFC said:

So two weeks after the schools open we find a huge amount of cases, but I'm sure there isn't a connection at all.
 
Still under one percent right enough.
 
 

We really need to stop looking at the number of cases with the increased demand for and capacity to test. It's the percentage of positive cases that is now more indicative. Extra testing is revealing extra cases so while the sensationalism of the daily numbers will be lapped up by the press the daily % of positives is still very stable between 0.5 and 1% a day.

It's best to use the official EU site for comparison on how every nation is coping, granted there will be slight differences based upon the amount of testing being carried out in each country, however it's a pretty decent guide and so far the UK and especially Scotland are doing pretty well, relatively speaking.

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

 

 

[MuckleMoo]

Not been on here for a bit.
Is there any studies or evidence of the virus mutating? I was talking to a guy in the pub, lecturer in biology who knew his onions on epedemiology, he said it will likely be weakening and become more contagious as it mutates to continue it's longivity. He also talked about it burning out having blasted through the vulnerable. I didn't get that bit as a hot member of staff delivered more beers.
 
edit - Just read Trumps new virus guy favours herd immunity. Shit going to hit the fan just about election times = posponment?
 

There does seem to be some evidence that it is weakening

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2252699-covid-19-is-becoming-less-deadly-in-europe-but-we-dont-know-why/

[Gaz]

Micro Chips are rank, Fries 2 Go are the way to go. The crispiest microwavable chip I've ever had

[dirty dingus]

7 minutes ago, MuckleMoo said:

There does seem to be some evidence that it is weakening

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2252699-covid-19-is-becoming-less-deadly-in-europe-but-we-dont-know-why/

Cheers, also states it maybe because it's the younger yins getting it now. though a drop from 18% fatality in April to 1% in August can only be a good thing.