MuckleMoo Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Rates might have flattened for now, but number of hospital admissions isn’t going well. Else we wouldn’t be clearing 8 extra wards and preparing our 2 surge ICU’s. People need to remember that the average time from infection to symptoms is 7 days, then the average time to be ill enough to require hospital admission seems to be 10-12 days. A lot of people don’t realise how sick they are with this until they are really, really sick. Infections going down does not immediately impact on hospital admissions. Very concerned that the next few weeks are looking like we will see massive numbers of admissions. Scot.gov figures aren’t 100% up to date with numbers in hospital either. Squeaky bum time. Just out of interest and nothing more, but are you seeing any change in the type of people being admitted, age, health issues, that type of thing. Be interesting to hear from someone who's in the middle of it all 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, welshbairn said: And if it starts hitting the young harder, so the "at risk" demographic changes? And if it mutates to be more deadly, or more transmissable. What if it mutates the opposite of the above? Plans should be in place based on the current known data. Contingency plans should be in place if that data changes. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven W Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Snafu said: Also - Vaccine schedule Mr Leitch was also asked if there was anything to prevent a move to start vaccinating people 24 hours a day, but he played down the importance of that debate. “Nothing, except, do you want to go for your vaccine at 4am when I can give you it at 8pm?” he said. “I think it has taken on a bit of an iconic status that I think is not worthy. It makes for good headlines. “The fundamental answer to your question is, if you want 24/7, you can have it. “But we’ve got vaccinators working from 8 until 8, working their socks off round the clock, in and out of care homes. “I don’t think care homes want vaccines at 3am. If people want vaccines at 3am because they are on nightshift, because they are a midwife – that is already available within the NHS. “I think it is a little bit of a red herring, the 24/7 thing. It makes for a nice front page, so if they want the front page, yes, 24/7 is available.” Astonishing stuff. I don't REALLY want my vaccine at 4am when I could have it at 8pm. But if by getting it at 4am frees up a slot for someone else at 8pm then I'm 100% up for it. Basic stuff surely? We need to throw the kitchen sink at this, and to have him advocating doing it during fairly normal working hours is mystifying. Bordering on troubling in fact. Edited January 14, 2021 by Steven W 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 18 minutes ago, Left Back said: And if it mutates to be more deadly, or more transmissable. What if it mutates the opposite of the above? Plans should be in place based on the current known data. Contingency plans should be in place if that data changes. There are loads of variables, you can't fix removal of restrictions on a certain number of vaccinations, it's crystal ball gazing. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 How many people need to be immunised is a bit or a moot point, tbh. Come late spring over half of the population will have been infected and/or vaccinated, which coupled with the changing seasons will massively interrupt transmission. Also, eventually I think vaccine uptake in the UK will be extremely high, given the percentage that got a flu jab this year. Oh, and this 'we don't yet know how the vaccines will interrupt transmission' line is simply because not much has yet been investigated. Hardly any scientists believe it won't at least have some positive impact on reducing transmission. Though it seems future vaccines given via a spray rather than injection will provide greater protection in the respiratory tract and so have a greater impact on interrupting transmission. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, welshbairn said: There are loads of variables, you can't fix removal of restrictions on a certain number of vaccinations, it's crystal ball gazing. I don't see why not, when it is known that vaccination prevents severe disease and thus the impact on health systems - which is the whole reason behind restrictions. Once sufficient coverage is given and enough time has passed for the priming of immune responses, there is zero justification for NPI's. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven W Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, welshbairn said: There are loads of variables, you can't fix removal of restrictions on a certain number of vaccinations, it's crystal ball gazing. "Can't" is a terrible, terrible word. "Can" is so much better. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melanius Mullarkey Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 (edited) I think folk seriously underestimated the sheer bloody minded laziness of the general public with regards to getting vaccinated at 3am. Edited January 15, 2021 by Melanius Mullarkey 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, Elixir said: Oh, and this 'we don't yet know how the vaccines will interrupt transmission' line is simply because not much has yet been investigated. I'm sure it has, but without putting human guinea pigs in a tank and feeding a vaccinated person the virus and see if he infects the other person, it will take time to get a conclusive finding. Also for how long it provides immunity, the longest study so far is 5 months, only because that was the earliest the vaccines were given out. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
parsforlife Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 2 minutes ago, welshbairn said: There are loads of variables, you can't fix removal of restrictions on a certain number of vaccinations, it's crystal ball gazing. 100%. The only factors in easing of restrictions are case numbers, hospital admissions, ICU and deaths. Now vaccinations help reduce those numbers and especially by giving them first to the most vulnerable helps reducing things going down that line, but we have little idea on how to predict those numbers in a partially vaccinated, less restricted population. I am not interested in false hopes, let me know when we have confidence that any easing WILL happen. Not when we hope, cos any guesses so far have tended to be wrong. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raidernation Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Off to get tested, another pupil at school had tested positive.We’re on quarantine and e learning already but I could do without this [emoji35] 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Distant Doonhamer Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 When are we getting told the R value this week, usually on a Thursday is it not? Last week 7th the upper was 1.3 and the lower was 0.9. Last time we were at this level was on 3rd Sept. At week 2021-1 1704 is the current number of deaths by all causes in Scotland, the 5 year average was 1276. If you already know this, I'm just posty postying these wee stats so I can find it later.R value in the report today between 1.0 and 1.4.https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/documents/govscot/publications/research-and-analysis/2021/01/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-issue-no-34/documents/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-34/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-34/govscot%3Adocument/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-epidemic-scotland-issue-no-34.pdf 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, welshbairn said: There are loads of variables, you can't fix removal of restrictions on a certain number of vaccinations, it's crystal ball gazing. So you advocate the general public being under indefinite restrictions with no idea of what the end game is or what we have to do to get there? i’m no saying if x hits y then z should be lifted. I understand there are no definites. there should at least be a framework of what we’re aiming for though. Given how quickly the tiering framework was abandoned in Scotland maybe they’ve decided not to take that approach again. Seems like we just have to sit here and suck it up with no clue what the strategy is. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 I think you underestimate how fed up people are with the current situation and if it takes getting up at 3am to get a jab to help move the country forward to some normality, people will do it.Vaccine flying squads on nights. Cruise about in a big blood bus or similar knocking off any workplace that has a night shift. Let employers sign up to a few dates and let their employees sign up to take one. Inform GP and book second dose through normal channels. Nightshifts to get a wave of first vaccines done asap. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Melanius Mullarkey Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Snafu said: I think you underestimate how fed up people are with the current situation and if it takes getting up at 3am to get a jab to help move the country forward to some normality, people will do it. Trust me I’m as fed up as anyone. But you know, the public are fucking stupid. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Erih Shtrep Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 15 minutes ago, Melanius Mullarkey said: I think folk seriously underestimated the sheer bloody kinder laziness of the general public with regards to getting vaccinated at 3am. Can you provide examples? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paco Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 The 24/7 thing is a little bit of a moot point. It’d help right now, certainly, as we’re sitting on vaccines that we aren’t getting through. That’s frustrating. However the now-deleted SG plan from last night showed there’s little point doing them 24/7 moving forward as they’ll ultimately be putting vaccines in arms as soon as they come into the country. We could spend half the week vaccinating people at 3am and have Friday and weekends off. There’s just little to be gained. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Trust me I’m as fed up as anyone. But you know, the public are fucking stupid. Incentivising it would help tbh, as long as the govt downplay the potential for a return to normality folks arent going to make the effort. The government (both) are making a monumental c**t of this, I don't mind repeating. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zapp Brannigan Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 Plenty 18-40s are perfectly happy queuing for a pizza or a chips n curry sauce until 4am on a freezing cold night most days of the week in normal times (pished mind you). If getting a vaccine at that time allows us to do that again sooner then bring it on! I'll even wear my vaccination certificate on a lanyard around my neck if I need to get in places 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted January 14, 2021 Share Posted January 14, 2021 (edited) 17:16 New variant 'of concern', Brazilian expert says A new coronavirus variant discovered in four people who had travelled from Brazil's Amazon region to Japan is "of concern", a Brazilian expert say. Felipe Naveca, the lead investigator for the new variant at the state-run Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, said that its origin "undoubtedly was in Amazon state". He told the BBC's South America correspondent Katy Watson that it had evolved separately from those in the UK and South Africa, but that it showed some of the same mutations. "Some of these mutations have been linked to increased transmission and that is of concern." It's almost like the virus is mutating spontaneously in similar ways in different parts of the world because it is advantageous to it... But hey, I'm sure at this stage shutting borders will surely work! Edited January 14, 2021 by Elixir 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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