NotThePars Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, buchan30 said: Exactly. We need someone who can deal with the present situation. Not someone who is just going to keep digging up the past. Can't co-sign this sorry! History is easily top 2 of the humanities. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steven W Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 hours ago, Bairnardo said: It was either yesterday or Wednesday someone at work mentioned a testing centre, and I cant imagine it being so quick to get set up that it's not in response to figures you already have? Sounds odd. Went to book a test there. Was told symptomatic cases only. Doesn't sound right, and very disappointing of it is. I'm sure I read it was open to anyone living or working in the town, symptomatic or not. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superbigal Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 I still have doubts about the tier system as a means of reducing infections over time. Especially for the big urban areas. Edinburgh went into tier 3 and then limped along at the same daily infection level for about 2 months afterwards. It took tier 4 in the West to start to reduce infections there. On the basis that tier 3 and 2 aren't hugely worth having by themselves, and their only utility is as a means a graduated decrease of cases, and that isn't how it actually works - then is it worth hammering away at case rates in tier 4 until we can get into tier 1, then figure out how to stay there while vaccinations hit the levels required to stunt community transmission?Doubts or not about the tier/level system. It is what is currently the default. As nothing has changed or been offered then the natural progression is back to said system via an announcement on Tuesday. Level 4 for any council above 200, level 3 for any above 100. That taking into account the levels of bed occupation in hospitals should be the least we deserve for our efforts.As I said, lockdown cos a couple of sheep farmers on some out of the way island caught the virus, is unacceptable. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glen Sannox Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 29 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Odds on Scotland isn't getting supplied as quickly as other parts of the UK so BJ can make the SNP look bad on vaccination rates. Anything related to AZ and the EU is out in the open by now. Odds on Scotland are getting supplied as quickly as other parts of the UK, they are just as expected, making an arse of it and blaming everyone else. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 (edited) 14 minutes ago, NotThePars said: Was gonna say myself that I don't think he fulfils either of the criteria. And who wants to hear what an archaeologist has to say? Nobody, that's right. Anyone whose idea of a good weekend involves a field dig to unearth the Lost Roman Latrines of Shitstown-on-Sea instead of an away day to Berwick with a slab of cans shouldn't even be allowed to mix with the rest of society. They're only using that experience to work out where to bury their hookers. Edited January 29, 2021 by vikingTON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 25 minutes ago, Michael W said: The EU blocking exports of the Pfizer vaccine might end up buggering everything up. What does this mean for second doses, for example? This is a dreadful development, not only for the UK and anyone else that's waiting on deliveries, but because it's probably going to prompt similar elsewhere. All because the EU made a c**t of it. Where are you seeing that they’re blocking exports? As fas as I can see the export restrictions announced today amount to filling in a form to tell the EU what you’re up to. Not saying it won’t come to that but if it does the EU will have wasted a lot of vaccine if we can’t give people their second dose of Pfizer. No doubt the government won’t waste any time pointing that out to the world. if it did come to that could we start our Pfizer recipients again on AZ? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 15 minutes ago, virginton said: The straightforward solution to make tiers 3 and 4 effective is to close schools in them instead of pretending that they can be somehow magically separated from community transmission. Swinney himself now admits that the 'safe' schools contribute a whopping 0.2 of the overall R rate. You can safely double that for the real figure. That is why tiers have not been as effective as hoped for. Is that all? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, renton said: Is that all? Perhaps swinney should get back to school to learn something about numbers. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 The issue with publishing the figures on vaccines is that there is considerable controversy about the contracts and supply. The UKG, reasonably enough, think keeping that information secret is best, I think they are right here. Especially as the EU has now introduced unilateral controls on the export of vaccines to Northern Ireland, under the Brexit agreement. This has been condemned by Northern Irish politicians and the UK government have said they are monitoring and considering next steps. It's a really worrying development but I'm not sure if we know exactly how this will affect vaccine supply to the UK. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 (edited) 4 minutes ago, renton said: Is that all? The median R rate for the current lockdown is 0.85, so what will happen when we add the 0.2 (and the fucking rest) to that sum? Spoiler Braying rap lectures from the SG about why oh why Glasgow has 'stubbornly high' infection rates into June. Edited January 29, 2021 by vikingTON 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, ICTChris said: The issue with publishing the figures on vaccines is that there is considerable controversy about the contracts and supply. The UKG, reasonably enough, think keeping that information secret is best, I think they are right here. Especially as the EU has now introduced unilateral controls on the export of vaccines to Northern Ireland, under the Brexit agreement. This has been condemned by Northern Irish politicians and the UK government have said they are monitoring and considering next steps. It's a really worrying development but I'm not sure if we know exactly how this will affect vaccine supply to the UK. Have you got a link to this? I’ve missed it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, virginton said: The median R rate for the current lockdown is 0.85, so what will happen when we add the 0. 0.85 + 0 is 0.85 Mr. Swinney 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, virginton said: The median R rate for the current lockdown is 0.85, so what will happen when we add the 0.2 (and the fucking rest) to that sum? Hide contents Braying rap lectures from the SG about why oh why Glasgow has 'stubbornly high' infection rates into June. Was this part of a breakdown of R by all sources or was it just the school stuff? I guess the thing is that a tier system won't work if you then open up anything greater than an additive effect of R = 0.15 given the current median R, right? So even if you keep the schools shut, if opening non essential retail and restaurants and cafes generates an additive R effect near or greater than schools, then the thing will be fucked anyway. Which would mean we would need to drive R down to 0.6 (ish) before you could start to think about having the budget for opening up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craigkillie Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Looking at the daily new infection numbers, the trend would suggest that we could be below 100 new cases per day in Scotland by the end of February. As you say, if many areas are not at least in Level 3 by that time, nor a route map of how to get to Level 0, then it raises big questions.Level 0 was specifically described as being the maximum relaxation without an effective vaccine. We now have an effective vaccine, so any roadmap should include a path towards even more relaxed restrictions, a Level -1 if you will. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 (edited) 16 minutes ago, ICTChris said: The issue with publishing the figures on vaccines is that there is considerable controversy about the contracts and supply. The UKG, reasonably enough, think keeping that information secret is best, I think they are right here. Especially as the EU has now introduced unilateral controls on the export of vaccines to Northern Ireland, under the Brexit agreement. This has been condemned by Northern Irish politicians and the UK government have said they are monitoring and considering next steps. It's a really worrying development but I'm not sure if we know exactly how this will affect vaccine supply to the UK. As a lawyer I follow on twitter suggested, if you are getting access to public money, the contract should be in the public domain. In all cases. Edited January 29, 2021 by madwullie 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Not sure what the best thing to do is if the transmission rate inside schools is lower than the transmission rate in the surrounding area. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlipperyP Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 26 minutes ago, NotThePars said: Can't co-sign this sorry! History is easily top 2 of the humanities. Eh, woodwork and PE, without these to you woodn't have a house or fitba, prioritises please. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 (edited) 11 minutes ago, renton said: Was this part of a breakdown of R by all sources or was it just the school stuff? I guess the thing is that a tier system won't work if you then open up anything greater than an additive effect of R = 0.15 given the current median R, right? So even if you keep the schools shut, if opening non essential retail and restaurants and cafes generates an additive R effect near or greater than schools, then the thing will be fucked anyway. Which would mean we would need to drive R down to 0.6 (ish) before you could start to think about having the budget for opening up. Well no, because you can still open up many other things that do not have the huge additive effect of schools alone and still achieve a steady downtick in cases. The simple and unavoidable reality is that community transmission + schools open is not compatible with reducing case numbers. Just because lots of people want it to be the top priority does not mean that the numbers magically change on this. Where there is no significant community transmission in the likes of Orkney and most of the Highlands then schools can open soon, but slapping a nationwide blanket policy would be yet another act of idiocy. And if they reopen on that basis in the medium term then it would condemn the vast majority of Scotland to weeks of ruinous and utterly needless restrictions. Edited January 29, 2021 by vikingTON 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3 minutes ago, craigkillie said: Level 0 was specifically described as being the maximum relaxation without an effective vaccine. We now have an effective vaccine, so any roadmap should include a path towards even more relaxed restrictions, a Level -1 if you will. This is incorrect. As I mentioned at the time, Level 0 is the maximum relaxation planned for period. The SG's roadmap to live with the virus assumed that vaccines would be available soon and would help allow for Level 0. This is why NS constantly says they are the key to "greater domestic normality" - it's also why I don't believe this choice of language is simply to gain greater compliance. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, welshbairn said: Not sure what the best thing to do is if the transmission rate inside schools is lower than the transmission rate in the surrounding area. You can't be this thick... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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