LongTimeLurker Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Michael W said: ...I appreciate that it takes time to confirm facts etc, but I would say a new variant comprising 25% of cases might've been a cause for concern long before we were told about it. The government cocked up with the Christmas relaxations given the prevalence of infection in areas of England at the time and the deployment of the announcement looked very much like a get out of jail card being played... ...that in turn gave Macron an excuse to close down ferry traffic just as brinksmanship over the Brexit deal was at its most critical phase. Spectacular own goal by Boris. Edited March 1, 2021 by LongTimeLurker 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paco Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 (edited) A slight gap opening up between England and the other nations in terms of first vaccine doses administered over the past few days. Hopefully a sign that supply issues are over with, I suspect the doses will land in England and be sent out to local authorities, while there’ll be an extra step to go to NHS Scotland/Wales/NI. England now has the highest percentage of first doses given out in the UK, but the lowest amount of second doses. Not for me to say whether it’s all a PR exercise, Jeff. Willie Rennie to be greeting in Parliament again, NAP. Edited March 1, 2021 by Paco 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 52 minutes ago, superbigal said: Are people forgetting Christmas was not fully cancelled. We had the biggest household meetings in months. Including millions of the old duffers no doubt pulling crackers with their families. As it turns out the infection rate peaked for the period of December 28th to January 3rd. Hardly a coincidence. That one day at the height of the Kent variant possibly cost about 3 weeks at an educated guess. That was the peak because the hard lockdown began on the 26th and more people were off work. Its very difficult to believe that Christmas Day multiplied R but then it began to drop immediately afterwards. Was there an exponential uptick between the final two periods of rising infections? Hospitality being open in large parts of England and retail everywhere being mobbed during December would have been far bigger drivers of infection than one day of minimal mixing. Most families aren't the McAllisters from Home Alone, most Christmas home socialising is fairly tight knit. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 (edited) 8 hours ago, madwullie said: ...The govts and scientists have warned for months now that the biggest and main danger we face is that of mutations arising which are not bodied so well by our current vaccines... Meanwhile hospitalisation rates are dropping like a stone in the UK due to vaccination despite having one of these variants being prevalent, and South Africa is easing restrictions after cases dropped rapidly there despite having one of the new variants prevalent and having very little vaccination completed: Viruses mutate. That's pretty much a given. There is nothing so far that suggests the trajectory we are on will be derailed by that. Bear in mind that the UK, South Africa and Brazil have been used frequently in vaccine trials, so the vaccines currently in use are already known to be effective against these variants where severe symptoms are concerned. The drops in efficacy that have been reported have related primarily to mild or asymptomatic cases. Edited March 1, 2021 by LongTimeLurker 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted March 1, 2021 Author Share Posted March 1, 2021 A year ago today the first confirmed case of Covid 19 was diagnosed in Scotland. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
super_carson Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, ICTChris said: A year ago today the first confirmed case of Covid 19 was diagnosed in Scotland. Happy birthday? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, ICTChris said: A year ago today the first confirmed case of Covid 19 was diagnosed in Scotland. That the public knew about at the time... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D.A.F.C Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 This variant thing will be never ending until they either close borders or have a vaccine that works against all future strains. Closing borders makes sense but yet again the uk is penny wise pound foolish. Personally I think holidays are a no go outside the UK this year unless something changes. Seems like a variant can develop anywhere which could change things at short notice. A lockdown because someone wants to get pissed in the sun. f**k right off -6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marshmallo Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 15 minutes ago, Detournement said: That was the peak because the hard lockdown began on the 26th and more people were off work. Its very difficult to believe that Christmas Day multiplied R but then it began to drop immediately afterwards. Was there an exponential uptick between the final two periods of rising infections? Hospitality being open in large parts of England and retail everywhere being mobbed during December would have been far bigger drivers of infection than one day of minimal mixing. Most families aren't the McAllisters from Home Alone, most Christmas home socialising is fairly tight knit. You don't have that multiplier effect without the mixing on Christmas Day though. -2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 8 hours ago, madwullie said: This isn't going to cause us issues. But even Elixir's scientist of the month understands variants are the issue that could in some way slightly delay the process, at least make the road more rocky and less plain sailing. What's this nonsense? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elixir Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 2 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said: This variant thing will be never ending until they either close borders or have a vaccine that works against all future strains. Closing borders makes sense but yet again the uk is penny wise pound foolish. Personally I think holidays are a no go outside the UK this year unless something changes. Seems like a variant can develop anywhere which could change things at short notice. A lockdown because someone wants to get pissed in the sun. f**k right off Shutting the borders really helped protect against the strain that arose in err... Kent. Maybe it was those pesky people arriving on dinghies who brought it here. We should sink them in the Channel, just to be safe. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dons_1988 Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, D.A.F.C said: This variant thing will be never ending until they either close borders or have a vaccine that works against all future strains. Closing borders makes sense but yet again the uk is penny wise pound foolish. Personally I think holidays are a no go outside the UK this year unless something changes. Seems like a variant can develop anywhere which could change things at short notice. A lockdown because someone wants to get pissed in the sun. f**k right off Good luck developing a vaccine guaranteed to work against all future undiscovered strains. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D.A.F.C Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Elixir said: Shutting the borders really helped protect against the strain that arose in err... Kent. Maybe it was those pesky people arriving on dinghies who brought it here. We should sink them in the Channel, just to be safe. They didn't shut the borders though. That was one variant, yes it can happen but then we had Brazil and South African. Yes let's let everyone in and out until it mutates beyond control of our vaccine meaning that all the hard work is out the window. As long as I can sink a few pints beside a swimming pool f**k everyone else. Lalala what do the scientists know -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 1 minute ago, Dons_1988 said: Good luck developing a vaccine guaranteed to work against all future undiscovered strains. Exactly. This is an impossible bar to clear. We can take action against new strains where necessary by developing the vaccines we now have with boosters etc. That's as good as we can manage and I'm confident with even what we have at the moment that this is achievable. Might mean focused travel bans etc whilst we work it all out, but no need for blanket bans at that stage. In the meantime, the important thing is we keep sequencing. The current vaccines have been shown to reduce infection and so hopefully will also reduce chances of 'mutations of concern' by reducing the overall amount of infections. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 24 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Meanwhile hospitalisation rates are dropping like a stone in the UK due to vaccination despite having one of these variants being prevalent, and South Africa is easing restrictions after cases dropped rapidly there despite having one of the new variants prevalent and having very little vaccination completed: Viruses mutate. That's pretty much a given. There is nothing so far that suggests the trajectory we are on will be derailed by that. Bear in mind that the UK, South Africa and Brazil have been used frequently in vaccine trials, so the vaccines currently in use are already known to be effective against these variants where severe symptoms are concerned. The drops in efficacy that have been reported have related primarily to mild or asymptomatic cases. Yeah that's what I said in my post. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D.A.F.C Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 Sorry for going off on one, just can't face another lockdown caused by stupidity. -4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gaz Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 25 minutes ago, ICTChris said: A year ago today the first confirmed case of Covid 19 was diagnosed in Scotland. This means it's 18 months today since yer auntie on Facebook had a bad flu-like illness that the doctors just couldn't diagnose. 15 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICTChris Posted March 1, 2021 Author Share Posted March 1, 2021 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
accies1874 Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 This means it's 18 months today since yer auntie on Facebook had a bad flu-like illness that the doctors just couldn't diagnose."Was anyone else really ill last winter? [emoji848]" posts were, without exception, 0/10 content. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted March 1, 2021 Share Posted March 1, 2021 27 minutes ago, Marshmallo said: You don't have that multiplier effect without the mixing on Christmas Day though. What was the multiplier between the two weeks? Supermarkets were heaving and barbers were staying open late to fit everyone in. I'd say that would be at least as big an issue as family gatherings. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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