Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Ron Aldo]

Brussels' ongoing losing of the plot continuing. 
Potentially problematic as Pfizer is made in Belgium. 

So the EU are behind the UK in terms of vaccinations, bearing in mind they approved them after us. They've also stopped using the AZ vaccine despite all the evidence showing it to be completely safe, thus putting them further behind. Now they want to withhold one of the vaccines until they catch up?

They seem to be trying their hardest to make a complete arse of this. The game of politics that they're playing only risks prolonging this whole shitshow and, as usual, it'll be the public who bear the brunt.

[true_rover]

Yep - and remember that the 5 year average is going to see a bump for the next 2 months as we factor in the 2020 excess deaths, so we could soon be well below the average.

Not so, the excess is still being measured against 2015-19 and not just in Scotland. The ONS are doing likewise for England and Wales and I would expect the same from most other countries.

[Paco]

Vaccinations numbers seem slow to get upto speed, if we're to hit the 15th April target for all 1-9 groups we need to be doing 45k first jags a day, every day.

We would need 45k per day if we vaccinated absolutely every single one of the estimated population in Groups 1-9. Bear in mind the ‘clinically vulnerable’ and unpaid carers section were, effectively, guesses. There was no central database of these people to give an estimate.

Using purely age numbers we’ll need to do about 22k first doses per day to hit every single 50+, so there’s plenty spare capacity there to complete Group 6 easily enough if it isn’t already finished by April 15th.

I’m pretty sure the target will be effectively met well beforehand.

[madwullie]

1 hour ago, scottsdad said:

That's the point I'm making - the "within 28 days of a positive test" can count people who shouldn't be there as per my example, and also miss people as some folk can be in hospital with Covid for weeks before dying. The NRS metric is more accurate, but still not 100% accurate.

Sorry I shouldn't have rambled on about the outwith 28 days thing. I meant that people aren't getting run down by a bus etc then getting counted as covid deaths. That's a myth. Obviously the odd one or two will be miscounted, but the death certificate stuff is pretty robust. 

[Burnieman]

6 minutes ago, Paco said:

 

We would need 45k per day if we vaccinated absolutely every single one of the estimated population in Groups 1-9. Bear in mind the ‘clinically vulnerable’ and unpaid carers section were, effectively, guesses. There was no central database of these people to give an estimate.

Using purely age numbers we’ll need to do about 22k first doses per day to hit every single 50+, so there’s plenty spare capacity there to complete Group 6 easily enough if it isn’t already finished by April 15th.

I’m pretty sure the target will be effectively met well beforehand.

The number I'm working to is 3.35m which was the number quoted for everyone in the 1-9 Groups.

15th April is 30 days away, so we need 46k a day every day from tomorrow if we're to hit that based on those numbers. Clearly some people wont get the vaccine, but uptake seems to be running at over 95%

[Bairnardo]

Has there been any firm date mentioned for when the Moderna vaccine starts finding #veins?

[Big Fifer]

I tailed away at the end of the announcement yesterday, nice reading the opening up stuff but was there any mention of when social distancing ends and when face masks end? 

[101]

6 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Has there been any firm date mentioned for when the Moderna vaccine starts finding #veins?

I seem to remember from the graph they put out in January that it was coming in March/April

Bit of not so great news, although it was a bonus anyway. The UK have only just started the approval process for the J&J single shot Vax at this stage it's going to be most useful as a follow up dose for the most vulnerable or for sending to countries who have limited resources.

https://www.politico.eu/article/johnson-johnson-applied-for-vaccine-approval-in-uk-late-last-week/

[Jamie_B]

17 minutes ago, Burnieman said:

The number I'm working to is 3.35m which was the number quoted for everyone in the 1-9 Groups.

15th April is 30 days away, so we need 46k a day every day from tomorrow if we're to hit that based on those numbers. Clearly some people wont get the vaccine, but uptake seems to be running at over 95%

If you look at the Public Health Scotland dashboard there are about 580k first doses left to get everyone over 50 done. That's assuming almost 100% uptake. The remaining people of that 3.35m quoted in groups 1-9 are under 50s who are either unpaid carers or have a particular health condition that gives them priority. There's almost certainly been a huge amount of double counting in those groups - it strikes me as unlikely that 750k people aged 18-49 who haven't already had a first dose still fit those criteria, especially given, for example 25% of 40-49 year olds have already had a first dose.

Almost 50k doses done today - and you'd imagine that the increase that's still to come from that in the next couple of weeks will mostly be in first doses. We will probably have done more or less all over 50s by the end of this month the way things are moving. For example, about 25k of today's doses were in the 60-64 age group. At that rate everyone over 60 will have had a dose by the end of this week even if the rate doesn't increase at all.

[Left Back]

An interesting read about some of the decisions taken by UK gov during the pandemic.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56361599

 

[Bairnardo]

I seem to remember from the graph they put out in January that it was coming in March/April
Bit of not so great news, although it was a bonus anyway. The UK have only just started the approval process for the J&J single shot Vax at this stage it's going to be most useful as a follow up dose for the most vulnerable or for sending to countries who have limited resources.
https://www.politico.eu/article/johnson-johnson-applied-for-vaccine-approval-in-uk-late-last-week/

Aye but it could still quite easily be approved by the end of the month. Says it can take as little as 2 weeks there to approve.

[101]

1 minute ago, Bairnardo said:

6 minutes ago, 101 said:

I seem to remember from the graph they put out in January that it was coming in March/April
Bit of not so great news, although it was a bonus anyway. The UK have only just started the approval process for the J&J single shot Vax at this stage it's going to be most useful as a follow up dose for the most vulnerable or for sending to countries who have limited resources.
https://www.politico.eu/article/johnson-johnson-applied-for-vaccine-approval-in-uk-late-last-week/

Aye but it could still quite easily be approved by the end of the month. Says it can take as little as 2 weeks there to approve.

Fortnight to clear it and then maybe a fortnight to get delivery takes us nearly to the end of April I guess it cod be useful getting the least vulnerable blitzed.

[scottsdad]

46 minutes ago, true_rover said:

1 hour ago, scottsdad said:

Yep - and remember that the 5 year average is going to see a bump for the next 2 months as we factor in the 2020 excess deaths, so we could soon be well below the average.

Not so, the excess is still being measured against 2015-19 and not just in Scotland. The ONS are doing likewise for England and Wales and I would expect the same from most other countries.

Hadn't realised that - cheers.

[Bairnardo]

3 minutes ago, 101 said:

Fortnight to clear it and then maybe a fortnight to get delivery takes us nearly to the end of April I guess it cod be useful getting the least vulnerable blitzed.

Obviously it depends on supply being there, but if you had the doses, at 400k a week, you are fully vaccinating 2.8 million in a week with no fancying about for second doses. 

Think a one shot dose would be useful in tackling vaccine hesitancy especially for younger adults who might be thinking CBA with this, I dont need it. Dont know how you would ever target that though really. 

[101]

Just now, Bairnardo said:

Obviously it depends on supply being there, but if you had the doses, at 400k a week, you are fully vaccinating 2.8 million in a week with no fancying about for second doses. 

Think a one shot dose would be useful in tackling vaccine hesitancy especially for younger adults who might be thinking CBA with this, I dont need it. Dont know how you would ever target that though really. 

Yeh good idea, depending on side effects you could even have it in places like schools, colleges and unis to young adults don't even have to make arrangements to go to the vaccine centers they can visit a drop in clinic at their leisure.

[superbigal]

23 hours ago, superbigal said:

 

Daily Cases Update:   All the people are going to be level 3 in 6 weeks time.  Never mind let's keep the stats going to see if they "deserve " it.

Scotland now has 8 LA's above 100 cases per 100K out of the total of 27 in the UK

A resurgent Stirling headed by the deadly Fallin with 44 cases in the village.  It has 35% of Stirling councils total cases.

Some real change and shuffling in Health board order as Forth valley was way out in front and now down to 4th.

Scotland peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan, (UK was 642.1)    Cases that day were 16,496 and test positivity rate was 11.9%  

Total Cases 7 days from 8th March to 14th March were 3,965 now 3,995 up 0.76%. Positivity was  3.3% and still 3.3%.   Cases per 100k were  72.6 now 73.1

Home Nations Daily update:  UK Average 58.9 to 59.1 up 0.34%, England 58.7 to 58.6 down 0.17% .  Wales 40.3 to 41.1 up 1.99%  , Northern Ireland 67.7 to 68.8 up 1.62%   

NHS Progress  Greater Glasgow  108.6 to 108.8 , North Ayrshire & Arran  96.4 to 102.1,  Lanarkshire 101.5 to 101.2 , Forth Valley 99.8 to 96.5 ,  the rest all under Scottish average.

European (Above 2 Million Population) Shockers: Czech 720, Hungary 517, Serbia 442, Poland 291, Sweden 267, Slovakia 259, Italy 258, France 250 showing how much worse it is in Europe.  The UK only has below it Portugal (Who were top recently !!!) and Russia.   This does seem to support the patterns where new variants hit earlier than in other places.

Council progress in last 24 Hours as follows.

Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map. 

https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

The Bad boys club Over 100 Cartel

Glasgow City  132.7 to 133.6

Stirling  126.3 to 132.7  Fallin at 1,534 becomes Scotland's no go zone

East Renfrewshire 126.7 to 124.6

North Lanarkshire  123.3 to 123.3  

South Ayrshire  123.4 to 121.7  

Renfrewshire  111.7 to 112.8

North Ayrshire  97.2 to 107.6  Bad day up above 100 with a 10.7% rise 

West Lothian 93.9 to 104.3  Bad day up above 100 with a 11.07% rise     

Under 100 Club

Falkirk  90.7 to 88.3

Midlothian 79.0 to 81.1 

South Lanarkshire  77.7 to 77.1

East Ayrshire  69.7 to 77.0  Bad day above average up 10.47%

Under Scottish Average club 73.1

Fife 66.7 to 70.4  About to kick off as a large outbreak where I am based at St Andrews University. Currently 11 and rising. Not in stats yet.

Dundee City  61.6 to 62.3

Clackmannanshire  79.5 to 56.3 Continues to plunge down 29.18%

East Dunbartonshire 54.3 to 54.3  

East Lothian 57.0 to 52.3

Perth & Kinross 42.8 to 50.7   Large rise over 20%

SUB 50 Good Guys

City Of Edinburgh  44.5 to 42.5

Highlands  45.3 to 41.1 

West Dunbartonshire  43.9 to 43.9

Aberdeen City  42.0 to 42.9     

Aberdeenshire   32.2 to 33.3

Havana & Malt Whisky club Sub 30.0

Inverclyde  28.3 to 24.4  

Moray  24.0 to 24.0  

Angus 22.4 to 18.9  Amazing stuff around Dundee down over 15% at low levels.

Dumfries & Galloway  20.2 to 17.5  Another sustaining progress at low levels down over 13%

Scottish  Borders 7.5 to 14.7       

Argyll & Bute 9.3  to 10.5

Western Isles  7.5 to 7.5  

Shetland Islands 0.0 to 4.4

Orkney Island  0.0 to 0.0 

[buchan30]

Regarding Five a Sides.  they are certainly currently running in Dundee at Soccerworld.
No tackling and social distancing must be stretching the bounds of reality.

I was up at the trampoline place next to there with my two in October/November time and it was still open. Are all they pitches indoors?

[Benjamin_Nevis]

Daily Cases Update:   All the people are going to be level 3 in 6 weeks time.  Never mind let's keep the stats going to see if they "deserve " it.

Scotland now has 8 LA's above 100 cases per 100K out of the total of 27 in the UK

A resurgent Stirling headed by the deadly Fallin with 44 cases in the village.  It has 35% of Stirling councils total cases.

Some real change and shuffling in Health board order as Forth valley was way out in front and now down to 4th.

Scotland peaked at 301.9 for figures 29th Dec to 4th Jan, (UK was 642.1)    Cases that day were 16,496 and test positivity rate was 11.9%  

Total Cases 7 days from 8th March to 14th March were 3,965 now 3,995 up 0.76%. Positivity was  3.3% and still 3.3%.   Cases per 100k were  72.6 now 73.1

Home Nations Daily update:  UK Average 58.9 to 59.1 up 0.34%, England 58.7 to 58.6 down 0.17% .  Wales 40.3 to 41.1 up 1.99%  , Northern Ireland 67.7 to 68.8 up 1.62%   

NHS Progress  Greater Glasgow  108.6 to 108.8 , North Ayrshire & Arran  96.4 to 102.1,  Lanarkshire 101.5 to 101.2 , Forth Valley 99.8 to 96.5 ,  the rest all under Scottish average.

European (Above 2 Million Population) Shockers: Czech 720, Hungary 517, Serbia 442, Poland 291, Sweden 267, Slovakia 259, Italy 258, France 250 showing how much worse it is in Europe.  The UK only has below it Portugal (Who were top recently !!!) and Russia.   This does seem to support the patterns where new variants hit earlier than in other places.

Council progress in last 24 Hours as follows.

Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map. 
https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview
The Bad boys club Over 100 Cartel
Glasgow City  132.7 to 133.6
Stirling  126.3 to 132.7  Fallin at 1,534 becomes Scotland's no go zone
East Renfrewshire 126.7 to 124.6
North Lanarkshire  123.3 to 123.3  
South Ayrshire  123.4 to 121.7  
Renfrewshire  111.7 to 112.8
North Ayrshire  97.2 to 107.6  Bad day up above 100 with a 10.7% rise 
West Lothian 93.9 to 104.3  Bad day up above 100 with a 11.07% rise     
Under 100 Club
Falkirk  90.7 to 88.3
Midlothian 79.0 to 81.1 
South Lanarkshire  77.7 to 77.1
East Ayrshire  69.7 to 77.0  Bad day above average up 10.47%
Under Scottish Average club 73.1
Fife 66.7 to 70.4  About to kick off as a large outbreak where I am based at St Andrews University. Currently 11 and rising. Not in stats yet.
Dundee City  61.6 to 62.3
Clackmannanshire  79.5 to 56.3 Continues to plunge down 29.18%
East Dunbartonshire 54.3 to 54.3  
East Lothian 57.0 to 52.3
Perth & Kinross 42.8 to 50.7   Large rise over 20%
SUB 50 Good Guys
City Of Edinburgh  44.5 to 42.5
Highlands  45.3 to 41.1 
West Dunbartonshire  43.9 to 43.9
Aberdeen City  42.0 to 42.9     
Aberdeenshire   32.2 to 33.3
Havana & Malt Whisky club Sub 30.0
Inverclyde  28.3 to 24.4  
Moray  24.0 to 24.0  
Angus 22.4 to 18.9  Amazing stuff around Dundee down over 15% at low levels.
Dumfries & Galloway  20.2 to 17.5  Another sustaining progress at low levels down over 13%
Scottish  Borders 7.5 to 14.7       
Argyll & Bute 9.3  to 10.5
Western Isles  7.5 to 7.5  
Shetland Islands 0.0 to 4.4
Orkney Island  0.0 to 0.0 

Fog warnings abound in Angus as thick cigar smoke reduces visibility to #absolutescenes levels

[Gaz]

Fallin

[Dan Steele]

22 minutes ago, superbigal said:

Fallin at 1,534 becomes Scotland's no go zone

True, regardless of Covid.