Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Jacksgranda]

19 minutes ago, hk blues said:

I tried to do a fag packet calculation but gave up so I'm happy to go with 2 years!  

That was very much a back of the fag packet calculation, so I'm open to correction from any statisticians among us (trained or otherwise).

[hk blues]

19 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

That is an oversimplistic conclusion.

We have an obesity crisis in the UK which is unmatched by most countries in the world outside of the US.

Our people living longer doesn't mean they are healthier.

It means we have, as @Detournement says better medication in place to keep people alive.

Almost half (I think) of our population is classified as clinically vulnerable going by the numbers from the vaccine program.

We are an unhealthy country by almost any measure you want to use.

Healthy was the wrong word choice - greater longevity was what I was getting at.  

[realmadrid]

10 hours ago, Michael W said:

Was rather grumpy when BA decided to reduce the LHR-CDG flights to twice daily during August and left mines intact, meaning I was probably looking at a voucher for a voluntary cancellation. However this got my hopes up until I saw this:

Get in the fucking bin. I can tolerate the test to get into France, but the extra £300 or whatever this will cost isn't worth it. And of course not to mention the faff involved. 

I'll wait to see the rules when fully published, but I'm not hopeful. 

Are you double vaccinated or set to be at least 14 days before your flight?

These are the current rules of entry into France

Conditions of entry into metropolitan France from the United Kingdom

If the traveller is vaccinated(complete vaccination scheme), entry into metropolitan france is not subject to any restrictions. However, he must present a declaration on his honour attesting to an absence of symptoms of Covid-19 infection and contact with a confirmed case of Covid-19, as well as proof of vaccination status. As the United Kingdom is classified as one of the countries in the "orange" zone, it must present to the transport company and the border control authorities.a negative PCR test less than 72 hours before departure (departure of the first flight in the case of a connecting trip) or a negative antigen test less than 48 hours before departure (departure of the first flight in the case of a connecting trip). Children under the age of eleven are exempt from testing.

If the traveller is not vaccinated (or if his vaccination regimen is incomplete), he must produce a compelling reason to return to the metropolitan territory. The indicative list of compelling reasons appears on the certificate of entry into metropolitan territory.Being a French national, spouse (married, pacsé and concubine) and children of a French national, is one of the compelling reasons. As the United Kingdom is classified as one of the countries in the "orange" zone, it must present to the transport company and the border control authorities a negative PCR test less than 72 hours before departure (departure of the first flight in the case of a journey with a connection) or a negative antigen test less than 48 hours before departure. (departure of the first flight in case of journey with connecting flight). Children under the age of eleven are exempt from testing. Finally, he must present a declaration on his honour attesting to the absence of symptoms of Covid-19 infection and contact with a confirmed case of Covid-19; a commitment on honour to submit to the antigen test or biological examination that will be carried out on arrival in metropolitan France; a commitment on honour to isolate himself for seven days and a commitment on honour to undergo a biological virological screening examination (PCR) at the end of the isolation period.

[vikingTON]

4 hours ago, TheJTS98 said:

I think a time to remove the restrictions would be when you know what the consequence of removing them will be.

So restrictions should stay in place until The Science develops time travel to pre-confirm decisions. Seems legit.

3 hours ago, Arabdownunder said:

The level needed to reach herd immunity is a % of total population not target population.

The 80% target is a result of modelling which incorporates the transmissibility of the virus, the effectiveness of the vaccine and other public health interventions. No animals involved. 

If you catch Covid and have a cough for a couple of days and then are good again, its a major issue for any at risk, unvaccinated people you came into contact with while infectious. 

 

The overwhelming majority of credible 'at risk' groups have been double vaccinated in the UK. What's left are either those who refused vaccination (not society's problem) or those who, for medical reasons, cannot obtain effective protection right now and are vulnerable to a host of infections, not just Covid. We don't restrict activity for that unfortunate but tiny category of people for any infectious disease and never have done, because the societal costs massively outweigh the benefits. 

On top of this, a tiny fraction of people from vaccinated groups may get sick and/or die, because a highly effective vaccine is still not 100% in all cases. 

The idea of waiting for herd immunity to develop because of any of the above groups, or to protect single-vaccinated fatties from being bundled into hospital for a few days is nonsense. The only justification for legally mandated, society-level restrictions is hospital capacity issues from COVID infections: not from staff self-isolation, not from the backlog of other work that needs to be done in the NHS and not from 'other respiratory diseases' either.

Edited July 7, 2021 by vikingTON

[101]

1 hour ago, TheScarf said:

Why do we accept the flu kills tens of thousands of Brits every year, but we can't accept that Covid will?  I've still not had a serious, reasoned answer to this.

Would flu always being around be part of it? Whereas Covid is new and at the start the hope was it would be flash in the pan and deaths were regrettable and seen as preventative.

Ideally no-one would die of the flu but that requires enormous investment in the NHS both to provide critical care but also to improve the health of the nation. Then you would have to get into a discussion how much would be sensible to spend on keeping people alive for a bit longer before something else finishes them off.

[Michael W]

3 minutes ago, realmadrid said:

Are you double vaccinated or set to be at least 14 days before your flight?

These are the current rules of entry into France

Conditions of entry into metropolitan France from the United Kingdom

If the traveller is vaccinated(complete vaccination scheme), entry into metropolitan france is not subject to any restrictions. However, he must present a declaration on his honour attesting to an absence of symptoms of Covid-19 infection and contact with a confirmed case of Covid-19, as well as proof of vaccination status. As the United Kingdom is classified as one of the countries in the "orange" zone, it must present to the transport company and the border control authorities.a negative PCR test less than 72 hours before departure (departure of the first flight in the case of a connecting trip) or a negative antigen test less than 48 hours before departure (departure of the first flight in the case of a connecting trip). Children under the age of eleven are exempt from testing.

If the traveller is not vaccinated (or if his vaccination regimen is incomplete), he must produce a compelling reason to return to the metropolitan territory. The indicative list of compelling reasons appears on the certificate of entry into metropolitan territory.Being a French national, spouse (married, pacsé and concubine) and children of a French national, is one of the compelling reasons. As the United Kingdom is classified as one of the countries in the "orange" zone, it must present to the transport company and the border control authorities a negative PCR test less than 72 hours before departure (departure of the first flight in the case of a journey with a connection) or a negative antigen test less than 48 hours before departure. (departure of the first flight in case of journey with connecting flight). Children under the age of eleven are exempt from testing. Finally, he must present a declaration on his honour attesting to the absence of symptoms of Covid-19 infection and contact with a confirmed case of Covid-19; a commitment on honour to submit to the antigen test or biological examination that will be carried out on arrival in metropolitan France; a commitment on honour to isolate himself for seven days and a commitment on honour to undergo a biological virological screening examination (PCR) at the end of the isolation period.

I will be, yes. Second dose is 17 days before I fly so I'll just sneak in. 

I'm comfortable enough doing the antigen test to get there, it's more the UK requirements I find annoying. Scrambling about Paris for a test (and it has to be a PCR unless I've missed an update) is a bit of a nuscience and the PCR after arrival is more cost. The testing will probably cost more than the flights. 

I'd tolerate this (very begrudgingly) for 14 days away somewhere, but for 4 nights it's a bit much. 

[vikingTON]

2 minutes ago, hk blues said:

Healthy was the wrong word choice - greater longevity was what I was getting at.  

Yep but a lot of that extra life is enjoyed alongside long-term disease and infirmities, that also happen to act as co-morbidity factors for Covid, in addition to the major driver that is age. That's before we even dig into the potential effects of the shocking diet, or the difference in seasonality of airborne viruses in this climate compared to east Asia or other regions. 

If you were going to design an airborne virus that overwhelmingly hits a combination of old and already unfit people badly, then it'd be a surprise if the UK and Scotland wasn't seriously affected by it. That's in no way a deflection of accountability from the respective governments here, but there are underlying public health factors that can't be wished away when comparing with other countries. 

[realmadrid]

Just now, Michael W said:

I will be, yes. Second dose is 17 days before I fly so I'll just sneak in. 

I'm comfortable enough doing the antigen test to get there, it's more the UK requirements I find annoying. Scrambling about Paris for a test (and it has to be a PCR unless I've missed an update) is a bit of a nuscience and the PCR after arrival is more cost. The testing will probably cost more than the flights. 

I'd tolerate this (very begrudgingly) for 14 days away somewhere, but for 4 nights it's a bit much. 

Just ask for your certificate the day after your vaccination 

Our business is the main French based and they were asking for the original paper copies when the directors went into France in late June. Some on the flight did not have them and they were being taken to quarantine.

We have in the main being telling UK guests not to bother this summer and wait until the winter ski season or visit the Alps next summer. 

[Honest_Man#1]

48 minutes ago, Left Back said:

The questions about why our death rate was previously so high are valid though and we should be asking why our government(s) made a monumental c**t of this pre-vaccine.  I know there's a public enquiry planned but I fear it will be so far into the future all this will be forgotten about by then and lessons won't be learned.  One thing that's absolutely certain is that no-one will be held accountable by the public enquiry.

All the above is completely divorced from the question of removing restrictions though and one isn't related to the other.

After this is done, this will be the next thing to turn me into a seething mess, as it’s an absolute certainty that the bollocks public enquiry will absolutely not hold anyone in the UK or Scottish Governments to account for their appalling decision making in the early stages of this and the huge number of lives it has cost.

The one thing they have got correct is to go balls deep on vaccines, and whilst it’s obviously a pretty huge thing to get right, it doesn’t excuse the vast number of fuckups that pre-date it. Unfortunately all people will remember is the success of the vaccine, and the UK and Scottish Government scandals will be brushed under the carpet.

[David W]

7 minutes ago, 101 said:

Would flu always being around be part of it? Whereas Covid is new and at the start the hope was it would be flash in the pan and deaths were regrettable and seen as preventative.

Ideally no-one would die of the flu but that requires enormous investment in the NHS both to provide critical care but also to improve the health of the nation. Then you would have to get into a discussion how much would be sensible to spend on keeping people alive for a bit longer before something else finishes them off.

When people hear Covid they think death.

When people hear flu they think sniffles. 

 

[hk blues]

19 minutes ago, craigkillie said:

What goes down on the death certificate is different to what is used to count "covid deaths". Our covid deaths figure includes all people who died for any reason after testing positive for covid within the previous 28 days. I have no idea if the same definitions are being used elsewhere in the world.

Where I am, the Doc will ask if the family have ever heard of Covid and if the answer is Yes, that's what goes on the death cert.  There are financial benefits for hospitals to record Covid as the cause of death.  

[realmadrid]

7 minutes ago, Michael W said:

I will be, yes. Second dose is 17 days before I fly so I'll just sneak in. 

I'm comfortable enough doing the antigen test to get there, it's more the UK requirements I find annoying. Scrambling about Paris for a test (and it has to be a PCR unless I've missed an update) is a bit of a nuscience and the PCR after arrival is more cost. The testing will probably cost more than the flights. 

I'd tolerate this (very begrudgingly) for 14 days away somewhere, but for 4 nights it's a bit much. 

Meant to also say you wont be scrambling for somewhere for a test, over in France all the pharmacies seem to have facilities to do these tests.

Les Gets is a small village with a population of under 2000 outwith the summer and winter holiday seasons and we have a facility with the next village which is slightly larger having 2.  There will be 1000's of locations in Paris and your accommodation provider should be able to assist in pointing you in the correct direction.

[101]

3 minutes ago, David W said:

When people hear Covid they think death.

When people hear flu they think sniffles. 

 

That's just a presentational issue then.

Hopefully post Covid, Flu deaths will be lower thanks in part to Covid bringing an end to folk who "struggle in" to their work and folk washing their hands after going to the toilet/ before eating.

[hk blues]

18 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

I can't thnk of a better word to encapsulate these shrieking buffoons though.

You just did - OK, that was 2 words! 

[Cyclizine]

1 hour ago, TheScarf said:

Why do we accept the flu kills tens of thousands of Brits every year, but we can't accept that Covid will?  I've still not had a serious, reasoned answer to this.

Last flu season before Covid the UK had about 3000 ICU admissions for influenza with a roughly 10% mortality. English figures show about 1200 deaths from influenza in total, not "tens of thousands".

With Covid we have had over 35,000 ICU admissions with nearly 40% mortality. Many more ended up in hospital and many died in the community.

Covid is not the flu.

Edited July 7, 2021 by Cyclizine

[TheScarf]

1 minute ago, Cyclizine said:

Last flu season before Covid the UK had about 3000 ICU admissions for influenza with a roughly 10% mortality. English figures show about 1200 deaths from influenza in total, not "tens of thousands".

With Covid we have had over 35,000 ICU admissions with nearly 40% mortality. Many more ended up in hospital and many died in the community.

Covid is not the flu.

That's great, the Covid vaccine is far more effective than the Flu vaccine.

[101]

4 minutes ago, Cyclizine said:

Last flu season before Covid the UK had about 3000 ICU admissions for influenza with a roughly 10% mortality. English figures show about 1200 deaths from influenza in total, not "tens of thousands".

With Covid we have had over 35,000 ICU admissions with nearly 40% mortality. Many more ended up in hospital and many died in the community.

Covid is not the flu.

1200 deaths is still a fairly sizable chunk ought we do anything more to stop the spread of Flu or increase the capacity in hospitals so that people can stay longer? 

I do think we need to look at the NHS but beyond encouraging cleanliness I don't think anything further should be brought in for Flu season, not that I think that's what you are promoting.

[Detournement]

9 minutes ago, Cyclizine said:

Last flu season before Covid the UK had about 3000 ICU admissions for influenza with a roughly 10% mortality. English figures show about 1200 deaths from influenza in total, not "tens of thousands".

With Covid we have had over 35,000 ICU admissions with nearly 40% mortality. Many more ended up in hospital and many died in the community.

Covid is not the flu.

Is it not more common to be admitted with flu then die of pneumonia than have the death recorded as influenza?

[welshbairn]

36 minutes ago, Michael W said:

I will be, yes. Second dose is 17 days before I fly so I'll just sneak in. 

I'm comfortable enough doing the antigen test to get there, it's more the UK requirements I find annoying. Scrambling about Paris for a test (and it has to be a PCR unless I've missed an update) is a bit of a nuscience and the PCR after arrival is more cost. The testing will probably cost more than the flights. 

I'd tolerate this (very begrudgingly) for 14 days away somewhere, but for 4 nights it's a bit much. 

Unless it's changed in the last few days it's just a 30 euroish antigen test which you can probably get at the airport before returning, or in a pharmacy near where you're staying, and a PCR test from £60 for when you get back. Ignore the Scot gov site saying you have to use their firm, someone like Randox will do fine.

[bendan]

12 minutes ago, Cyclizine said:

Last flu season before Covid the UK had about 3000 ICU admissions for influenza with a roughly 10% mortality. English figures show about 1200 deaths from influenza in total, not "tens of thousands".

With Covid we have had over 35,000 ICU admissions with nearly 40% mortality. Many more ended up in hospital and many died in the community.

Covid is not the flu.

I appreciate it's not the flu, but the idea of what restrictions might be justified should be based on what we'd expect ICU admissions to be in a vaccinated/already-exposed population, rather than the naive population that faced Covid last winter.