Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Arthur Orton]

4 minutes ago, Detournement said:

There is surely zero point in suppressing it to zero in Scotland if they aren't going to do the same in England?

More utter drivel.  To do that you would have to ban all travel overseas, close the borders permanently etc.

Honestly what utter unrealistic pish.

We don't know how many fucking people have had it because you haven't done enough antibody testing.    A huge proportion have apparently had it without even knowing they had it.  Shambles utter shambles.

Is the NHS overwhelmed, no its in certain areas fucking mothballed and staff in critical care are being told to take annual leave because f**k all is happening.

Never mind though let's extend furlough for f**k knows how long, keep all pensioners clubs closed, sport off, kids grass roots off, destroy our mental health, destroy our economy until we suppress this virus that is actually, well er suppressed.

Ah but the science says so, really, a quick look can find the opposite view from equally as accredited scientists.

Follow what our Europeans neighbours have done and look at what went well for them.

We are miles behind, The UK government is a joke and the SG isn't far behind.   Worst management in the Western world apart from that cretin Trump.

Also remember our death figures were greatly increased by the decision to though vulnerable people into care homes with unfortunate staff who had no PPE and were spreading the infection round the most vulnerable.  It was the equivalent of sending your kids out to play chicken on the motorway for several hours.

The management of getting out of lockdown is doing more harm to this country than the actual virus end of.

Shambles.

 

 

[Bairnardo]

More utter drivel.  To do that you would have to ban all travel overseas, close the borders permanently etc.
Honestly what utter unrealistic pish.
We don't know how many fucking people have had it because you haven't done enough antibody testing.    A huge proportion have apparently had it without even knowing they had it.  Shambles utter shambles.
Is the NHS overwhelmed, no its in certain areas fucking mothballed and staff in critical care are being told to take annual leave because f**k all is happening.
Never mind though let's extend furlough for f**k knows how long, keep all pensioners clubs closed, sport off, kids grass roots off, destroy our mental health, destroy our economy until we suppress this virus that is actually, well er suppressed.
Ah but the science says so, really, a quick look can find the opposite view from equally as accredited scientists.
Follow what our Europeans neighbours have done and look at what went well for them.
We are miles behind, The UK government is a joke and the SG isn't far behind.   Worst management in the Western world apart from that cretin Trump.
Also remember our death figures were greatly increased by the decision to though vulnerable people into care homes with unfortunate staff who had no PPE and were spreading the infection round the most vulnerable.  It was the equivalent of sending your kids out to play chicken on the motorway for several hours.
The management of getting out of lockdown is doing more harm to this country than the actual virus end of.
Shambles.
 
 

Agree with all of this, but would add that IF the virus takes off again, given that it would be doing so in a much more aware and diligent population (yes I do think so, with some exceptions obviously, this is clearly no longer going to be treated like just some "ach it wont come here mind SARS" type thing ) and given the tracing, extra beds, extra ventilators, CPAP machines, and the new steroid treatment, does a "second wave" ever look anything like the first?

We have no fucking excuse not to be able to ride out any uptick in infections now alongside a fully functioning society.

[Michael W]

5 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Isn't that more or less what places like NZ have done with success (until the recent Brit were at it again)

They did that from start though. Our scientists said this wasn't necessary, so we didn't as the Government decided not to go against that. We now have our quarantine, of course, which is widely derided as being far too late to be effective. 

NZ screwed up by not testing the two that were allowed in properly and letting them leave. They were only allowed back in for compassionate reasons (dying relative) and as a result of the cock up, NZ have now banned travel for that reason. 

[Bairnardo]

Isn't that more or less what places like NZ have done with success (until the recent Brit were at it again)

Yeah, which is absolutely not an option for us once again due to the open border with England. There is little to no point in going for a deeper suppression than England. Granted it would be good to get that, but at the cost of weeks more restrictions destroying our society when it can all be unpicked on a whim by people travelling freely from a country with different rules, it's not worth it the price.

[Todd_is_God]

57 minutes ago, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said:

I've no issue if that's the plan but think it's very important to convey what the infections/daily positive tests/deaths threshold is for reopening each sector. 

Both the UK & SG to date have been reluctant to give any indication of what their thresholds are.

The figure of "under 20" is an interesting one to suggest though, as we are not far away from that now, never mind August 11th. We only have 2 days figures of the new totals, but the average so far is 22.

[Ron Aldo]

Sturgeon basically confirming we want to suppress the virus as low as possible in an attempt to get to some actual normality.

I don't disagree with that approach in principle but surely the SG have to take more into account than just the daily death/infection figures?

If their plan is to suppress figures to almost 0 then fair enough but that shouldn't be at the expense of education/the economy as we're then very much into the territory of the cure being worse than the disease.

[Detournement]

19 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

29 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Isn't that more or less what places like NZ have done with success (until the recent Brit were at it again)

Yeah, which is absolutely not an option for us once again due to the open border with England. There is little to no point in going for a deeper suppression than England. Granted it would be good to get that, but at the cost of weeks more restrictions destroying our society when it can all be unpicked on a whim by people travelling freely from a country with different rules, it's not worth it the price.

Unless you are the Scottish Government and you want to blame Westminster for any second wave.

[Paco]

The figure of "under 20" is an interesting one to suggest though, as we are not far away from that now, never mind August 11th. We only have 2 days figures of the new totals, but the average so far is 22.

Think it means twenty active cases in total, rather than being uncovered every day.

Very hard to see how we can get close to that, to be honest. Maybe in February, not now with flights returning and the tourism industry about to be opened up to all, including the open border with England (~1500 cases per day).

[Michael W]

Coronavirus came to UK at least 1300 times

The above made the news last week but didn't gain much traction due to some other event (probably Johnson loosening restrictions in haste). A complete and utter failure, showing only too well the consequences of not closing the border and quarantining arrivals. 

Then there's the care holes fiasco, which was about the most fucking obvious thing in the world - old and sick people will die if exposed to the virus yet it was allowed to happen anyway. 

It is of course too late to undo these decisions and we have to live with them, but they also inform the way that we now respond to getting ourselves out the lockdown. Aiming for suppression now seems foolish and undeliverable. You need to take that approach from the start. 

[renton]

19 minutes ago, Ron Aldo said:

I don't disagree with that approach in principle but surely the SG have to take more into account than just the daily death/infection figures?

If their plan is to suppress figures to almost 0 then fair enough but that shouldn't be at the expense of education/the economy as we're then very much into the territory of the cure being worse than the disease.

Presumably eduction would be better off, the closer to normality it can be before August 11th, and presumably the economy will have a more robust recovery the fewer social restrictions there is, and the higher consumer confidence is.

[Todd_is_God]

8 minutes ago, Paco said:

Think it means twenty active cases in total, rather than being uncovered every day.

 

Ah ok.

Personally I think that is an incredibly low bar to be setting, but that's just me.

Agree also with your other points.

[renton]

1 minute ago, Michael W said:

Coronavirus came to UK at least 1300 times

The above made the news last week but didn't gain much traction due to some other event (probably Johnson loosening restrictions in haste). A complete and utter failure, showing only too well the consequences of not closing the border and quarantining arrivals. 

Then there's the care holes fiasco, which was about the most fucking obvious thing in the world - old and sick people will die if exposed to the virus yet it was allowed to happen anyway. 

It is of course too late to undo these decisions and we have to live with them, but they also inform the way that we now respond to getting ourselves out the lockdown. Aiming for suppression now seems foolish and undeliverable. You need to take that approach from the start. 

All approaches are about suppression - that's the natural outcome of maintaining an R value below 1. Even England's. It's managing the slope of downwards infections that is the current debate.  

Try and push R very low under severe restrictions now, to open up more normally later, or try and manage the slope at or near 1 with a longer tail on infections, but have more open sooner under some restrictions?

[Todd_is_God]

6 minutes ago, Michael W said:

Then there's the care holes fiasco

Bit harsh on @Boo Khaki

[Boo Khaki]

[Michael W]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

Bit harsh on @Boo Khaki

FFS 

Well there's no point in correcting it now. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Michael W

[Todd_is_God]

8 minutes ago, renton said:

All approaches are about suppression - that's the natural outcome of maintaining an R value below 1. Even England's. It's managing the slope of downwards infections that is the current debate.  

Try and push R very low under severe restrictions now, to open up more normally later, or try and manage the slope at or near 1 with a longer tail on infections, but have more open sooner under some restrictions?

Is there any evidence the restrictions are driving R down, though, versus just maintaining it?

If it was as effective as you suggest, based on how restrictive ours are, we should be seeing new cases (and R) continue to fall at a greater rate than they are. But they don't appear to be.

Based on the data we have for Scotland to date, it looks like we are seeing the same tail as other European nations who have removed a lot of restrictions.

 

 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[renton]

23 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Is there any evidence the restrictions are driving R down, though, versus just maintaining it?

If it was as effective as you suggest, based on how restrictive ours are, we should be seeing new cases (and R) continue to fall at a greater rate than they are. But they don't appear to be.

Based on the data we have for Scotland to date, it looks like we are seeing the same tail as other European nations who have removed a lot of restrictions.

 

 

R must drop as caseload drops, as more people recover.

Bear in mind that comparisons internationally will be different based on where on the curve they locked down, how severe their lockdown was (ours never really was), how robust their testing regimes are, how their behavioural and infrastructure and connectivity varies from ours.

I think full suppression is to absolute 0 is obviously not going to happen, however, you could argue that a more complete suppression than that currently underway down south has merit. Trying harder to get the virus suppressed now means retail and hospitality operating on more normal rules sooner after they reopen, which is surely a more robust and sustainable way of keeping them open. It means less restrictions on capacity at the football, less closed door games. Importantly, the lower the Covid case load after the Summer, the more margin you have going into Flu season, so that you don't risk a second wave starting to get loose when it is camouflaged by a high degree of over lapping symptoms.

Edited June 17, 2020 by renton

[expatowner]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3089187/beijing-reports-new-local-coronavirus-cases-testing-xinfadi?utm_content=article&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1592283933
Beijing seeing an outbreak over the last few days.

I have friends living in various parts of China and they all say places have been in lockdown and the COVID death numbers are being suppressed. NEVER trust the Chinese.

[Todd_is_God]

10 minutes ago, renton said:

R must drop as caseload drops, as more people recover.

Bear in mind that comparisons internationally will be different based on where on the curve they locked down, how severe their lockdown was (ours never really was), how robust their testing regimes are, how their behavioural and infrastructure and connectivity varies from ours.

I think full suppression is to absolute 0 is obviously not going to happen, however, you could argue that a more complete suppression than that currently underway down south has merit. Trying harder to get the virus suppressed now means retail and hospitality operating on more normal rules sooner after they reopen, which is surely a more robust and sustainable way of keeping them open. It means less restrictions on capacity at the football, less closed door games. Importantly, the lower the Covid case load after the Summer, the more margin you have going into Flu season, so that you don't risk a second wave starting to get loose when it is camouflaged by a high degree of over lapping symptoms.

A lot of words to say "no"

[vikingTON]

10 minutes ago, renton said:

I think full suppression is to absolute 0 is obviously not going to happen, however, you could argue that a more complete suppression than that currently underway down south has merit. Trying harder to get the virus suppressed now means retail and hospitality operating on more normal rules sooner after they reopen, which is surely a more robust and sustainable way of keeping them open. It means less restrictions on capacity at the football, less closed door games. 

You don't seriously expect any of that to happen, do you? There's absolutely nothing to suggest that the SG is going to suddenly steam ahead at a faster rate than the rest of the UK based on keeping more restrictions now. Rather than jam tomorrow it'll be more shite tomorrow, for longer because political caution has been its watchword throughout.