Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, TheGoon said:

Piss off you absolute moron.

Aptly named

[Wee Bully]

There is an obvious hypothesis tbf, which people seem reluctant to entertain might / desperately don't want to be true

My “hypothesis” is that London (esp Central London) is still pretty much dead. It’s a office based service economy and most people aren’t back to the office. The “melting pot” isn’t really occurring as it normally would. I’m based in Fenchurch Street and haven’t been to London since March, preferring the leafy suburb of Newton Mearns or the delights of Brodick atm.

I’m sure TiG’s is an edgier hypothesis though, and look forward to hearing it.

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, Wee Bully said:

My “hypothesis” is that London (esp Central London) is still pretty much dead. It’s a office based service economy and most people aren’t back to the office. The “melting pot” isn’t really occurring as it normally would. I’m based in Fenchurch Street and haven’t been to London since March, preferring the leafy suburb of Newton Mearns or the delights of Brodick atm.

I’m sure TiG’s is an edgier hypothesis though, and look forward to hearing it.

 

 

More people previously exposed in February and March = less people currently susceptible. It's hardly edgy.

[Wee Bully]

More people previously exposed in February and March = less people currently susceptible. It's hardly edgy.

It’s a hypothesis. I’ll say that.

No factual basis, but it’s only a hypothesis

[Michael W]

4 minutes ago, WATTOO said:

 

As for France, they've had lots of lockdown restrictions reintroduced for a few weeks now, including the wearing of masks outdoors, however their figures are just getting worse and worse which again seems strange ?

There's still lots of questions about this virus which haven't been answered.

I was on holiday in Nice last month, so this is really based on my observations isn't the full picture. 

France encouraged workers to go back to their offices and had around 80% of them back. Once in, there was no policy on masks until a couple of weeks ago. I imagine that this has not helped the infection rate. 

Nice was amongst the first to introduce outdoor wearing of masks due to rising rates. This was widely ignored with compliance somewhere on the vicinity of 40-60% at any given time. The Police were also not bothered about enforcing it and/or fining people. 

Thing is, the mask wearing outside is treating a symptom, not a cause. Walking around outside is low risk but the bars/restaurants were all packed (with no mask requirements) . It seems to me that it's fairly obvious in which of those environments your risk is higher, yet the policy designed to minimise the risk was applied to the one in which the risk is lower. Having likely worked this is therefore illogical, the public subsequently decided that the local authority could do one and they were, in many cases, having none of their outside mask policy. Once you've lost that trust I have no doubt that other restrictions are filed in the bin as well. 

My amateur conclusion is therefore a mix of poor policy in forcing people back to offices and also non-compliance due to daft approaches being undertaken. 

There is also the chance that masks aren't as effective as they've been made out to be, but it's too early to draw that conclusion. They don't seem to be stemming the tide in France presently however, although as I said compliance wasn't very high. 

[welshbairn]

8 minutes ago, Snafu said:

I don't think anyone really does, its a first time for everyone.

Do you work with or know people who have had previous experience of a pandemic?

They've got a bit more experience in the Far East, enough to make them wary anyway. Sars 1 didn't have nearly the same number of infections but a much higher fatality rate which probably burnt it out, 40% in Malaysia from the few cases they had there.

[Donathan]

If there’s another lockdown I have a straight choice between breaking the law and severe mental health issues

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Michael W said:

I was on holiday in Nice last month, so this is really based on my observations isn't the full picture. 

France encouraged workers to go back to their offices and had around 80% of them back. Once in, there was no policy on masks until a couple of weeks ago. I imagine that this has not helped the infection rate. 

Nice was amongst the first to introduce outdoor wearing of masks due to rising rates. This was widely ignored with compliance somewhere on the vicinity of 40-60% at any given time. The Police were also not bothered about enforcing it and/or fining people. 

Thing is, the mask wearing outside is treating a symptom, not a cause. Walking around outside is low risk but the bars/restaurants were all packed (with no mask requirements) . It seems to me that it's fairly obvious in which of those environments your risk is higher, yet the policy designed to minimise the risk was applied to the one in which the risk is lower. Having likely worked this is therefore illogical, the public subsequently decided that the local authority could do one and they were, in many cases, having none of their outside mask policy. Once you've lost that trust I have no doubt that other restrictions are filed in the bin as well. 

My amateur conclusion is therefore a mix of poor policy in forcing people back to offices and also non-compliance due to daft approaches being undertaken. 

There is also the chance that masks aren't as effective as they've been made out to be, but it's too early to draw that conclusion. They don't seem to be stemming the tide in France presently however, although as I said compliance wasn't very high. 

Personal observations are often the best as they're genuine and not sugar coated for the media.

So, it looks very much like a case of trying to shut the stable door after the horse has bolted which would make sense as there's always a 4 - 6 week lag on the figures.

Who knows, maybe we should be taking things even further now rather than wait until we have hundreds a day being admitted to hospital again, although it is a very fine balancing act economically and of course we also have those in our society (some on this thread) who don't actually believe that a threat exists.

[Guest JTS98]

42 minutes ago, Snafu said:

I don't think anyone really does, its a first time for everyone.

Do you work with or know people who have had previous experience of a pandemic?

I think most people have a handle on why it's not sensible to just decide that figures from abroad have no relevance to what is happening in Scotland or what may happen in Scotland.

Just because this is new for all of us doesn't mean there aren't some obviously sensible and obviously not sensible views.

TiG has a lot of not sensible views and peppers this thread with them pretty much non-stop.

[vikingTON]

NS on down with this sort of thing mode again today:

Quote

To younger people, please think about your loved ones and to older people be even more vigilant with hygiene and distancing if you’re spending time with young relatives who might have been in pubs and restaurants.

It's absolutely wild that they're lecturing on this while letting weans run around all day in huge non-distanced groups and then go hug their grannies straight afterwards. The blame game is already being set up here in the event of failing to reverse the current trend.

[s_dog]

Think the next step will be for pubs/restaurants to close in the Greater Glasgow & Clyde area unless the numbers start to decrease next week. Possibly other areas banning household visits. I don't think anyone has much appetite for a full lockdown. If they're going to keep pubs/restaurants open, they need to enforce the social distancing aspect a lot more. Not easy to do when you hear of people giving false details to restaurants, or refusing point blank to provide any info (only heard this on a Radio 5 Live report).

[Guest JTS98]

6 minutes ago, Snafu said:

The Philippines have been struggling for the last month.

I've read parts of Indonesia are not doing too well either such as Bali.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/09/bali-covid-19-surge-blamed-inaccurate-rapid-tests-visitors-200907052734606.html

 

It's a mixed bag in The East.

Indonesia and Philippines have very high numbers. Thailand and Malaysia very low. Although Malaysia looks like we may have a new spike after going from single figures to 66 and 100 in the last two days. We'll see what tomorrow brings. Vietnam was very low but then jumped. Korea has been up and down.

A big obvious point from The East is that the numbers are volatile. Spikes can appear and if not dealt with can rapidly become a problem. Malaysia has dealt well with the spikes so far, and the current spike seems to be centred around two specific clusters, so hopefully we'll carry on as normal.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, JTS98 said:

I think most people have a handle on why it's not sensible to just decide that figures from abroad have no relevance to what is happening in Scotland or what may happen in Scotland.

Just because this is new for all of us doesn't mean there aren't some obviously sensible and obviously not sensible views.

TiG has a lot of not sensible views and peppers this thread with them pretty much non-stop.

I'd say it's complete and utter lunacy to ignore the figures from abroad as this virus has pretty much followed the same patterns across the globe. Even countries who had previously been commended such as Iceland and New Zealand are showing large increases, then we have Spain and France who, relatively speaking, are in a pretty bad state and of course the virus is now starting to take hold again in the likes of Italy and of course the UK.

Yes, we're all doing much more testing and Yes, there's not so many people in hospital or indeed dying, however it's very early days I'd say and just hope that this is still the case mid October.

[Todd_is_God]

Just now, WATTOO said:

Yes, we're all doing much more testing and Yes, there's not so many people in hospital or indeed dying, however it's very early days I'd say and just hope that this is still the case mid October.

At which point, if it is, you will replace October with November and we will wait again.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

At which point, if it is, you will replace October with November and we will wait again.

No I wont, it's not a competition, i'll be overjoyed if i'm wrong.

[Billy Jean King]

It probably takes 2 to 3 weeks to see if the current restrictions will flatline and then reduce the caseload.
Also, the new app will surely add a lot more precision to contact tracing, allowing more chains to be broken quicker. So I suspect that will be given some time to work.
We are starting from a place of having more bed space, more test capacity and already restricted socialising and increased awareness which will presumably slow down the rate of infection as well.
As it is, I can't see them going for another lockdown or widespread restrictions. Under the current furlough scheme I think it's getting too close to the cliffedge to do much good, and it's one thing I simply cannot see the UK government u-turning on. Perhaps you might see targeted retentions in furlough, but my guess is, with Hard Brexit coming up at the end of the year, that they would rather try and not have a furlough scheme running over the top of Brexit unemployment.

I'm not convinced that too many people will download an app that could lead them having to self isolate. Anyone I have mentioned it to has indicated in no uncertain terms they won't be downloading it.

[Guest JTS98]

2 minutes ago, Snafu said:

Are you abroad just now or in Scotland?

Overseas.

Glad to be sitting it out here, to be honest. It's been a relatively calm process.

[MuckleMoo]

when is phase 3 of the Oxford/Zeneca vaccine supposed to end? 

Snap shot of where they are at the moment.

https://theconversation.com/oxford-scientists-these-are-final-steps-were-taking-to-get-our-coronavirus-vaccine-approved-144623

Quick read would suggest it'll be the end of the year before they know whether it's effective or not

[Todd_is_God]

7 minutes ago, WATTOO said:

No I wont, it's not a competition, i'll be overjoyed if i'm wrong.

So if cases quadruple between now and mid October, with no rise in hospitalisations, you wouldn't be saying "oh we need to wait and see what it's like in x weeks?"

This isn't aimed at you specifically, but it's easy to say what would show me to be wrong. At what point would the "wait and see" brigade be declared wrong?

Edited September 8, 2020 by Todd_is_God

[Ross.]

5 minutes ago, Billy Jean King said:

I'm not convinced that too many people will download an app that could lead them having to self isolate. Anyone I have mentioned it to has indicated in no uncertain terms they won't be downloading it.

The app here works off Bluetooth and simply tells you whether or not your phone has been in contact with someone who has reported a positive test. Of course, it relies on people actually updating the app if they have a positive test. I assume you'd be expected to self isolate but it doesn't track anything other than the signals it gets from other phones using the app.