Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[The Moonster]

Just now, RH33 said:

She’s in hignfy tonight.

Wont bother watching.

Fucking hell. Prime time Janey Godley. Someone nuke us now.

[Marshmallo]

20 minutes ago, Falkirk09Bairn said:

Which make posts like the one below even more bizarre.

 

Your post is a bit snide and unnecessary 

[renton]

2 hours ago, Szamo's_Ammo said:

Bearing in mind this study was conducted during lockdown, what do you think the likely outcome is of sending children and staff back to education with no restrictions?

Children making up a small percentage of symptomatic caseloads is the problem. If they don't have symptoms they don't get tested.

Are people happy for children to be spreading a virus we still do not know everything about amongst each other and taking it home to their families? I don't think they are but you would think so reading certain posts on here.

My sister works as a nurse in ICU. She knows restrictions being put on education will inconvenience her in terms of childcare but she also knows her work has become busier since the schools went back and they will be close to breaking point in the next few weeks. She certainly didn't notice any difference during the first 2 months after pubs, restaurants, retail, etc reopened...

So the two things to consider when reopening schools are:

1. The intrinsic safety to the kids themselves - i.e. will they catch it in large droves, and will it lead to mortality in that cohort.

2. The wider implications on society of having that sector open on infections in the community.

Based on the evidence in that paper, I would say there is a greater risk in the first consideration, as it implies that kids pass it on a bit more to each other than maybe other studies thought. However the paper does note that mortality in younger groups was far lower than older ones, again in line with other studies,  so maybe kids spreading it to each other isn't so serious in terms of the first consideration.

In terms of the second consideration, lockdown - or whatever restrictions India had - will skew the data away from what would be an ideal set, but that of course is the standard risk with public health studies (i.e. no one is queing up to be the control group if their life is at risk) but it suggests, still in line with other studies that adults are more likely to pass it to kids, than kids to pass it to adults, at least in terms of symptomatic cases. That means where you have a high background prevelance, the chances of finding cases in schools is likely imported from outside.

There is a lack of hard evidence for the idea that schools caused the major spike. That doesn't mean they didn't, and if the drivers are large asymptomatic clusters then all bets are off, since it is symptomatic cases that we, and everyone else more or less benchmarks against.

It's worth noting that in the evidence paper, there was a column for household infections. It dropped week on week more or less in line with the drop in intra-household meeitngs infections. If schools are passing infections out, then that trend should be different, since even though households are no longer mixing, the kids in those households should still be driving infections into them.

 

[WhiteRoseKillie]

13 hours ago, Szamo's_Ammo said:

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/09/30/largest-covid-19-contact-tracing-study-date-finds-children-key-spread-evidence

Bear in mind also that this study came to this conclusion using data from when India was under lockdown and schools were closed, which is even more concerning.

 

13 hours ago, welshbairn said:

I'd be wary of translating findings from India to Western Europe, there are a whole load of factors that can distort a meaningful comparison.

I'd be even more wary of someone who tries to bolster his (well, not really his, but..) opinion that schools reopening is driving the virus' resurgence by linking to a report which references a report compiled using data from a time when schools were closed.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

13 hours ago, Szamo's_Ammo said:

Yeah the scientists in India, the USA and South Korea who have concluded that children are key to the spread of the virus and often carry higher viral loads than adults in ICUs are morons right enough.

PS. Sweden did close schools.

Did all these kids disappear when the schools were closed? Packed away in boxes until education restarted?

[superbigal]

1 hour ago, super_carson said:

 

 

I wonder if this is why school staff have been selected for the antibody testing. I'll be interested to know the results either way.

 

This has been out for a while. My Wife signed up 4th October as Health staff also eligible. Not had a reply which is poor.   I wonder why some teachers only hearing about it now ?

Edited October 16, 2020 by superbigal

[Szamo's_Ammo]

19 minutes ago, renton said:

So the two things to consider when reopening schools are:

1. The intrinsic safety to the kids themselves - i.e. will they catch it in large droves, and will it lead to mortality in that cohort.

2. The wider implications on society of having that sector open on infections in the community.

Based on the evidence in that paper, I would say there is a greater risk in the first consideration, as it implies that kids pass it on a bit more to each other than maybe other studies thought. However the paper does note that mortality in younger groups was far lower than older ones, again in line with other studies,  so maybe kids spreading it to each other isn't so serious in terms of the first consideration.

In terms of the second consideration, lockdown - or whatever restrictions India had - will skew the data away from what would be an ideal set, but that of course is the standard risk with public health studies (i.e. no one is queing up to be the control group if their life is at risk) but it suggests, still in line with other studies that adults are more likely to pass it to kids, than kids to pass it to adults, at least in terms of symptomatic cases. That means where you have a high background prevelance, the chances of finding cases in schools is likely imported from outside.

There is a lack of hard evidence for the idea that schools caused the major spike. That doesn't mean they didn't, and if the drivers are large asymptomatic clusters then all bets are off, since it is symptomatic cases that we, and everyone else more or less benchmarks against.

It's worth noting that in the evidence paper, there was a column for household infections. It dropped week on week more or less in line with the drop in intra-household meeitngs infections. If schools are passing infections out, then that trend should be different, since even though households are no longer mixing, the kids in those households should still be driving infections into them.

 

All fair points.

It would be nice if this country could funnel some resources into a comprehensive study now that the schools are open without restrictions.

12 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

 

I'd be even more wary of someone who tries to bolster his (well, not really his, but..) opinion that schools reopening is driving the virus' resurgence by linking to a report which references a report compiled using data from a time when schools were closed.

Do you think the virus stops at the schools gates?

It's the most comprehensive study there has been. Unfortunately we will be waiting another couple of months for a study on infections in schools because, erm, they have only recently opened.

7 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Did all these kids disappear when the schools were closed? Packed away in boxes until education restarted?

They were certainly less likely to be meeting in close proximity with 30+ others on a daily basis.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

4 hours ago, Bairnardo said:

4 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

That's not what he said - and you know it.

This is all Masrhmallo has left after all the humiliations. Deliberately twisting what folk say then trying to score points over it. Another poster who has absolutely nothing to say, although it's for the best in his case since it will likely lead to further action from the moderating team.

Marsmallo - literally just a shite bennett Tribute Act. And in fairness to bennett, he's not half the shitebag he used to be.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

4 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Has the leader of any other country gone on television and pleaded with broadcasting companies to show a football match free to air to stop citizens breaching regulations?

Imagine Macron saying “I know how much the PSG-Marseille game means to you. But don’t pile onto a minibus to Luxembourg to get pissed up watching it. Please”.

What a weird country we are.

The country's normal. most of the people are normal. Those who measure their entire identities against one side or the other of a decdes-long sectarian cabal, otoh...

[WhiteRoseKillie]

3 hours ago, Falkirk09Bairn said:

We are old school friends. He texts me when he feels things are getting on top of him on here. That’s what friends do. 

Seriously? He's never considered logging off, or just not posting shite?

Please tell me this is a whoosh.

[Scotty Tunbridge]

Marsmallo - literally just a shite bennett Tribute Act.

 

That’s a really nasty thing to say x

[Falkirk09Bairn]

9 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Seriously? He's never considered logging off, or just not posting shite?

Please tell me this is a whoosh.

Friends have each other’s backs. We’ll often spend hours critiquing our contributions to this website and have been known to ask for support when required. There is nothing wrong with that. 

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 hour ago, Aufc said:

 

Not good.

 

I realise this is anecdotal but i have seen many large groups of school age kids all hanging about at night with nae social distancing etc. Surely in schools there is some degree of control over social distancing? Seems like it goes out the window once they are out. They probably don’t realise that they will be the dafties paying for it in years to come

 

Edited to add. It is outside so guess that makes it harder to spread

I have the misfortune to live near a school and it's like closing time in Sodom and Gomorrah when they come out. Maintaining order inside would be impossible.

[ICTChris]

I don't really care about the relative merits of one thing or the other but it seems mental that English regions are doing deals over which bits of the new restrictions they want to put into force:
https://mobile.twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1317052891346227200

I saw this in the news just then, crazy. I can see this being challenged in the courts.

[Szamo's_Ammo]

6 minutes ago, Falkirk09Bairn said:

Friends have each other’s backs. We’ll often spend hours critiquing our contributions to this website and have been known to ask for support when required. There is nothing wrong with that. 

Well it's good to know you both have a strong support network in place, particularly considering some of the nasty and abusive posts Marshmallo has had to endure so far today from multiple members of this failing website.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

3 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

I think the biggest cause of "school transmissions" is parents congregating at primary school gates, no masks, no social distancing and yak yak yaking, and pupils from different schools on the one bus.

Not sure about the biggest, but there's plenty of congregating around the school gates at the granddaughter's school, mainly yakking about how it's so difficult to go out on the piss, so organising wee "gatherings" at each other's places. No reponse from staff from the flagrant disregard for SD, mind you.

2 hours ago, Dee Man said:

Except they are. The very post I quoted referred to parents thinking that looking after their own kids is an inconvenience. 

This thread is littered with comments about parents thinking that teachers are babysitters and schools are day care centres. 

Most of these comments appear to come from those without kids of their own (or any prospect of the partner/sex life combination requird to get one), who have no understanding of the complexities of trying to provide for a family in a country where the "Dad works and Mum looks after the kids" model - something under threat even when I was a kid - is never ever coming back. Take one element out of the equation, and a lot of peoples' lives become very complex indeed. For those who have also lost the childminding help from parents and possibly one, or even both incomes, this is about a wee bit more than scoring points on the Internet.  When you see how children are referred to by some (and I'm guessing again, we're talking non-parents) you (or at least I) begin to think the likes of VT and his mates actually are nasty, immature  little shits.

[ICTChris]

SPFL has confirmed Sky Sports won’t be making the Old Firm game free to air. The right decision.

[Szamo's_Ammo]

I'm surprised the estimated figures are as low as that, considering a huge proportion of people with the virus are asymptomatic.

Average daily cases doubling every fortnight.

[Jacksgranda]

2 minutes ago, WhiteRoseKillie said:

Not sure about the biggest, but there's plenty of congregating around the school gates at the granddaughter's school, mainly yakking about how it's so difficult to go out on the piss, so organising wee "gatherings" at each other's places. No reponse from staff from the flagrant disregard for SD, mind you.

 

"biggest" maybe wasn't the right word - bigger, larger might have been better.

[Empty It]

SPFL has confirmed Sky Sports won’t be making the Old Firm game free to air. The right decision.

Hope fines will be getting dished out to the great unwashed of Glasgow and the rest of the bigots for that matter.