GiGi Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 minutes ago, 101 said: Nicola Sturgeon must be considering letting grangemouth go up. Sturgeon must condemn the Falkirk and Grangemouth council area to be razed 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnieman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 28 minutes ago, GiGi said: Would P&Bers accept Falkirk dropping down a sinkhole if it meant getting the pubs open quicker? Get to it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie_B Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 (edited) 38 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said: i'll second that, completely anecdotal of course!, many years ago a very very skilled doctor/ surgeon saved my sisters life against some pretty terrible odds, yet his communication and interpersonal; skills were worse than that of a moody 10 year old The issue I think is that scientists very rarely speak in absolute black and white terms. Even if something is overwhelmingly likely they'll still say something like "X is likely to mean Y, but it could still mean Z." In the current circumstances, that means stuff like we "could" be stuck with no major events for "years". I mean we absolutely could - for all we know a variant turns up tomorrow that sweeps round the globe, evades all vaccines and kills twice as many people. Scientists will acknowledge that there are unforeseen possiblities - but then the reporting ends up being "Live events 'could' be banned for years" even if that's not what the experts were driving at or if it doesn't really reflect what they actually think. If the AZ vaccine does protect from serious illness/death and Pfizer/Moderna don't seem to lose much efficacy at all as a result then I'd like to think we're absolutely in good shape just now. Last week's weekly stats stated 60% of vaccinations up to that point had been done using Pfizer. We should have Moderna coming on supply in April from what I've seen. If we get to the end of this and it's even something like 40% Pfizer/Modern and the rest AZ, then you've go 40% of the population with very high protection against all variants, and 60% of the population with very high protection against the dominant strains in the UK just now and some level of protection from SA - and with that protection extending to them being highly unlikely to become seriously unwell. The AZ cohort would have the likelihood of a booster jag to follow down the line to offer further protection from that variant. If that all comes to pass then the rationale for restrictions would be out the window on the basis of what we currently know about the level of protection vaccines offer and the current COVID variants circulating in the UK. The best thing we can do beyond vaccinations just now is try to stop the SA variant taking a foothold. As far as the pace of progress goes, if we go forward over the next week at 50k a day Mon-Sat and then 30k again on Sunday we'll be at upwards of 1.2 million vaccines delivered. We could be knocking on the door of 2 million doses by the end of the month at that pace. That's phenomenal. There continues to be a lot of chat about having the JCVI groups done by the start of May but at this pace they could be through them in the first week or two of April. Obviously they won't want to over promise if supplies are variable, but the hope is there... The big thing is where we are with hospital/death/ICU/case rates at the end of February. If this is working we should start to see them fall off a cliff - particularly as far as hospital and death numbers go. Edited February 8, 2021 by Jamie_Beatson 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Moonster Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 8 minutes ago, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said: The BBC one clearly explains that the limited tests suggest that the AstraZeneca vaccine still prevents severe illness, which is a good result. Watch the BBC news tonight at 6pm and tell me how many times this is mentioned. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwullie Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 33 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: I'm not sure that's a terrific example of a positive headline... I'd vote for him 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budmiester1 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 36 minutes ago, GiGi said: Would P&Bers accept Falkirk dropping down a sinkhole if it meant getting the pubs open quicker? Is it worth doing anyway, pubs opening or not? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djchapsticks Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 40 minutes ago, GiGi said: Would P&Bers accept Falkirk dropping down a sinkhole if it meant getting the pubs open quicker? Hasn't it already?! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Burnieman Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 6 minutes ago, Jamie_Beatson said: As far as the pace of progress goes, if we go forward over the next week at 50k a day Mon-Sat and then 30k again on Sunday we'll be at upwards of 1.2 million vaccines delivered. We could be knocking on the door of 2 million doses by the end of the month at that pace. That's phenomenal. There continues to be a lot of chat about having the JCVI groups done by the start of May but at this pace they could be through them in the first week or two of April. Obviously they won't want to over promise if supplies are variable, but the hope is there... At the current pace, we should be through the 1-9 priority groups by early April *usual caveats. The unknown is how they split resources to go back to start second jags, and carry on with first jags. Mid-May is a reasonable assumption as things stand for all first jags to be done whilst going back to those done in Jan/Feb for a second time (based on 50k a day, with first jags reducing to 30k a day around mid-March whilst resource diverts back to second jags). Just guesswork, but by the end of furlough we should be in a pretty good place. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realmadrid Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 9 minutes ago, Jamie_Beatson said: As far as the pace of progress goes, if we go forward over the next week at 50k a day Mon-Sat and then 30k again on Sunday we'll be at upwards of 1.2 million vaccines delivered. We could be knocking on the door of 2 million doses by the end of the month at that pace. That's phenomenal. There continues to be a lot of chat about having the JCVI groups done by the start of May but at this pace they could be through them in the first week or two of April. Obviously they won't want to over promise if supplies are variable, but the hope is there... It's hard to work out the numbers due to second jags starting to be administered . Has it been announced what the split of new vs second jabs will be issued? Easier at week 13 as the numbers were low to start with but eventually we are going to have 50k people looking for their second dose when a number of 50 to 55 year olds have yet to get their first. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim McLean's Ghost Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 20 minutes ago, Am Featha *****h Nan Clach said: Every vaccine story has explained exactly what is known. The BBC one clearly explains that the limited tests suggest that the AstraZeneca vaccine still prevents severe illness, which is a good result. Vaccine expert on right now saying that isn't the case. The only result they have is that in 2000 test patients average age of 35 there was do difference in rates of infection of the SA variant between half that were given Astra Zenica and those who were given a placebo. No one in the entire test group was hospitalised. So in this test the AZ vaccine did nothing measurable. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G51 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 (edited) There is a lot of stock being put into a trial of 2000 people which has clearly acknowledged and defined limitations. Even if a booster is required, it's not a big deal. Relax, everyone. We've got this. Edited February 8, 2021 by G51 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Elixir said: Looks like the dreaded South Africa variant is small change to the Pfizer vaccine. I always likes to get my science news from an account which organises camps where adults can dress up as animals. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Am Featha Taigh Nan Clach Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 1 minute ago, The Moonster said: Watch the BBC news tonight at 6pm and tell me how many times this is mentioned. I rarely watch the news. My overarching point about all of this is that people tend to get angry about bias and never recognise the many other times when it's not the case. Like when people on different sides of the argument phone up or write into the the BBC to express disgust at the bias shown during a the same news feature. I am lucky in that my finances or mental health have not been impacted in any way by Covid, so when I see the main story tonight (which I probably won't watch) and hear 1000+ dead or concerns about variants, I just see this as a reporting of statistics and a genuine, but not insurmountable potential issue, not wild fear mongering designed to scare people into meekly accepting draconian laws laid down by a nanny state government. I'm fairly easy-ozy about what happens from hereon in. I think ultimately a fairly sensible balance between health and economics will be reached and we'll be back to almost normality fairly soon and normality not long after that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G51 Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 A molecular biologist who is also a furry is extremely "pandemic in the internet age" isn't it 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jamie_B Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 (edited) 12 minutes ago, realmadrid said: It's hard to work out the numbers due to second jags starting to be administered . Has it been announced what the split of new vs second jabs will be issued? Easier at week 13 as the numbers were low to start with but eventually we are going to have 50k people looking for their second dose when a number of 50 to 55 year olds have yet to get their first. I guess it depends how close they stick to 12 weeks as the schedule. Obviously 10k have already had a second injection and we're not yet 12 weeks into the programme. I think when I looked the other day we were at about 225k doses by mid January. So in theory we need to have done 225k second doses by early April. That proportion will ramp up dramatically from then on. It also creates an incentive to get through as many first doses as possible by then! Take it to its extreme - if they got to 400k doses a week by next week they'd be at 2 million doses delivered by Feb 28. If they could get it to 500k doses a week from then on we'd be at 4 million plus doses by the end of March. That's about 90% of the entire adult population of Scotland if it all went to first doses (which obviously it won't). If we achieve 90% coverage across the entire population by the end of this that'll be a massive achievement given there is going to be a proportion of people who can't/won't have it. I'd love to be optimistic enough to think that's going to happen - it almost certainly won't, but equally it isn't that dramatic an uplift from where we are now if the supplies can continue to match the demand! Edited February 8, 2021 by Jamie_Beatson 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gav-ffc Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 278k in the Uk yesterday showing a big drop for England. Weather definitely an issue heard London had an inch of snow that will have trapped many in their house. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boghead ranter Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 'Inspiring' Hancock-led briefing upcoming at 5PM. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djchapsticks Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael W Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 (edited) 8 minutes ago, gav-ffc said: 278k in the Uk yesterday showing a big drop for England. Weather definitely an issue heard London had an inch of snow that will have trapped many in their house. That's poor. Vaccine sites in some of South East England and Suffolk were also closed today on weather grounds so probably a not great day tomorrow as well. Edited February 8, 2021 by Michael W 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Left Back Posted February 8, 2021 Share Posted February 8, 2021 3 minutes ago, Michael W said: That's poor. Vaccine sites in some of South East England and Suffolk were also closed today on weather grounds so probably a not great day tomorrow as well. Not surprising. I remember getting off the train at Euston once and they’d had about a centimetre of snow overnight. The whole city was in full on panic mode and chaos reigned 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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