Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Left Back]

4 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said:

Yeah I understand it from that point, which makes me take slight issue with the reporting of deaths. the way they have done so with the running totals make it sound like a war or natural disaster, obviously there have been many people who have gone before their time and I'm certainly not belittling any death from this. but it's not like they would all still be here had it not been for covid. the same goes for future waves too, if a vaccinated 87 year old tests pos

Reading that thread in more detail it's simply talking about predicted deaths from an exit wave, i.e. what happens as we start to open everything up.

The main criticism he seems to have about the models is they don't actually account for reduced transmission or seasonality.  Warwick have modelled that separately and the results are in line with James Wards own base model and in summary means no real exit wave if the modelling assumptions are correct. 

That doesn't mean he's saying crank everything up after April as one of the assumptions all the models are using is that the expected controls (i.e. restrictions) on the UKG roadmap are followed as the roadmap states.

[Detournement]

1 hour ago, djchapsticks said:

You must be mistaken, only yesterday Detournement had said that vaccine passports was not solely a UK issue but a worldwide one as the US were pushing forward with them.

New York state have the most advanced passport system other than Israel and RoK. Illinois are just behind them.

 

Edited April 7, 2021 by Detournement

[Elixir]

50 minutes ago, Left Back said:

Depends if the government think that's an acceptable number that the electorate will swallow.

You'd have to assume most of these deaths would be expected over the winter months so an average of around 150ish per day.  There would also be more people in hospital with coronavirus than those dying so what does that do to the NHS?  You'd hope someone is working all this out.

It's the ballpark figure we never batted an eyelid about before death figures were plastered across the media for over a year straight. Many scientists seem more concerned about the possibility of a bad rebound in influenza in coming winters due to less immunity thanks to social distancing. Also, there are mechanisms which aren't fully understood in which respiratory viruses compete with each other, i.e. it seems unlikely we would be battered with Covid-19 and influenza simultaneously.

14 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Oh no. Poor London landlords.

Landlords can whistle, 700,000 lost taxpayers, however...

[Elixir]

16 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Considering that the UK government said in January that they weren't introducing them while being months into contracts I'll take it with a pinch of salt. 

My cynical Spidey sense is saying that they will allow individual states and private companies to build a complete cluster f**k of a system which doesn't work then step in saying that the public demand a better system (like BJ saying pubs want it here when they don't). 

 

9 minutes ago, Detournement said:

New York state have the most advanced passport system other than Israel and RoK. Illinois are just behind them.

 

It must be wild living in a world where everything that happens is a conspiracy. Class.

[Gordon EF]

1 minute ago, Elixir said:

Landlords can whistle, 700,000 lost taxpayers, however...

Aye. It's like coronavirus. Objectively a bad thing but the side effect of landlords getting shafted is a nice wee silver lining.

[Guest Bob Mahelp]

12 minutes ago, Detournement said:

New York state have the most advanced passport system other than Israel and RoK. Illinois are just behind them.

 

Do you mean 'vaccination numbers', rather than 'passport system' ?

[Left Back]

When you have someone on ignore is there a way to stop seeing when people quote them as well?

[vikingTON]

8 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Yes but being capable of interpreting those articles is another thing altogether and not something that someone without significant prior training could or should realistically expect to be credibly capable of.

Doesn't seem to stop a lot of people though.

Utter nonsense. When a public health pronouncement/model (to take the most recent examples) make claims that are either a) based on incomplete and partial accounts of the impact of their pet policies or b) run contrary to the available real-time data then you can in fact 'interpret' them as being 'utter bollocks'.

Under category a) you can file safely 99.9% of Sridhar's shrieking, and under b) the laughable 'third wave' models. Which let's not forget just last month before the roadmap was unveiled were predicting a larger summer wave of hospitalitisations than in January. That the models are now gradually shifting their own set of goalposts towards the grass pitch from the North Sea in which they belonged a few weeks ago does nothing to suggest that their current forecasts will be accurate either. 

Meanwhile, you do not need prior training in anything other than critical thinking skills (preferably from school but further/higher education usually has to do all the heavy lifting on that front) to observe that restrictions that prevent 7 people from meeting outdoors in Orkney but allow 50 God botherers to congregate in any indoor temple of their choice anywhere in the country represent an irrational failure of public policy. 

Public health officials make statements in the public domain with the arguments and supporting evidence that they wish to use to support their case. When those claims do not stand up to scrutiny, they do not get to hide behind their expertise but rather provide better arguments and more convincing evidence. If they don't like that dynamic then they're in entirely the wrong occupation.

Edited April 7, 2021 by vikingTON

[Detournement]

4 minutes ago, Bob Mahelp said:

Do you mean 'vaccination numbers', rather than 'passport system' ?

No passport system. 

If you want to go to a Knicks game at MSG this week you have to use an IBM designed Covid app. 

[Have some faith in Magic]

30 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Oh no. Poor London landlords.

Probably become air BnB instead. 

On the bottom feeder scale Air BnB owners in cities are even below normal landlords for me. 

[The Master]

1 hour ago, Elixir said:

Yup, the fact that any third wave will highly likely be no worse than a typically bad influenza season is not justification for ongoing restrictions on our liberty post vaccine rollout.

Without wanting to sound cold, isn't it also likely that, with vaccines, the Venn diagram of "people likely to die from COVID" and "people likely to die from flu" is basically a circle?And as such, the vast majority of those 15k-20k deaths will "replace" flu deaths rather than be in addition to?

If we then put aside the ethical and moral debate around "accepting" a 5-figure flu-related death toll every year, the fact we do accept it must surely mean we can also accept a more general "5-figure respiratory virus-related death toll" on the same terms (i.e. public information campaigns around cleanliness and vaccine uptake, but not face masks, social distancing, and talk of waves and lockdowns)?

Edited April 7, 2021 by The Master

[Gordon EF]

4 minutes ago, Have some faith in Magic said:

Probably become air BnB instead. 

On the bottom feeder scale Air BnB owners in cities are even below normal landlords for me. 

They are but they've been hammered as well, which is even more satisfying. 

[djchapsticks]

1 minute ago, The Master said:

Without wanting to sound cold, isn't it also likely that, with vaccines, the Venn diagram of "people likely to die from COVID" and "people likely to die from flu" is basically a circle?And as such, the vast majority of those 15k-20k deaths will "replace" flu deaths?

If we then put aside the ethical and moral debate around "accepting" a 5-figure flu-related death toll every year, the fact we do accept it must surely mean we can also accept a more general "5-figure respiratory virus-related death toll" on the same terms (i.e. public information campaigns around cleanliness and vaccine uptake, but not wholesale shutting down of the country)?

I don't think it's cold as such - it's a conversation, uncomfortable as it may be, that needs to be had. There seems to be a significant number of people in this country who believe that human beings should not be dying by means that they weren't dying previously.

I dunno, maybe its the fear of one's own mortality that drives this 'f**k off, shut up, one death is one too many' type narrative but it really doesn't help the situation.

 

[Marshmallo]

31 minutes ago, Left Back said:

When you have someone on ignore is there a way to stop seeing when people quote them as well?

Unfortunately not mate. I've stuck some of the worst posters on the site (the 8MileBUs and the Granny Dangers of this world) on Ignore but still see their posts if someone quotes them.

[Honest_Man#1]

2 minutes ago, Marshmallo said:

Unfortunately not mate. I've stuck some of the worst posters on the site (the 8MileBUs and the Granny Dangers of this world) on Ignore but still see their posts if someone quotes them.

Nonetheless, has putting them on ignore improved your forum experience?

[WhiteRoseKillie]

9 hours ago, oaksoft said:

Yes but the non-useless masks need to be N95 standard , sealed and with a filtration system.

There's no way you'd ever have people wearing those in public. Not even with Ebola doing the rounds.

So to bring up the example of doctors and nurses as proof masks work isn't really appropriate.

Let it go, lad. The masks (and indeed face coverings) which we are being asked to wear are worn to protect the environment from the wearer, not the other way round. In the early days of the pandemic, you absolutely would have seen people out and about with N95, FFP2 and FFP3 masks, as these were the kind of masks (actually respirators) which they could get hold of, and they thought were "better" than FRSMs. They're neither better nor worse, as they are designed for a completely different purpose. 

As you're obviously still struggling, this might help - ask yourself, when you see a surgical team in theatre, fully masked and gowned, who are they protecting by dressing thus?

[Bairnardo]

13 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

I don't think it's cold as such - it's a conversation, uncomfortable as it may be, that needs to be had. There seems to be a significant number of people in this country who believe that human beings should not be dying by means that they weren't dying previously.

I dunno, maybe its the fear of one's own mortality that drives this 'f**k off, shut up, one death is one too many' type narrative but it really doesn't help the situation.

 

I mentioned already a couple of times getting into it with a couple of gammons on another forum I use. I had to bow out though, as one of them, who was able to articulate some stuff pretty well so I presume, not a complete moron, was ranting on about how we should exclude the unvaccinated from society, and this is to keep the vaccinated safe. There's literally f**k all you can in the face of such logic except walk away. The thread also included, for completeness, a "FFS they are still going to open the pubs... Locked down again in 3 weeks!!!!!" 

 

The confusion about what people have a right to expect throughout this, wilful or otherwise, is going to result in years of handwringing pish from a large section of society as they wait to see which respiratory virus has taken the life of an elderly relative then go fucking ballistic if it turns out to be covid 19 rather than anything else that would have did the same job. This "I HAVE A RIGHT TO BE KEPT SAFE!!!" needs to be weeded out, but it won't be for purely political reasons. It's going to come down to folk causing scenes in public and being told to f**k off back to their house. 

[Marshmallo]

3 minutes ago, Honest_Man#1 said:

Nonetheless, has putting them on ignore improved your forum experience?

Immeasurably

[WhiteRoseKillie]

9 hours ago, oaksoft said:

I was just thinking to myself how nice it was for once to have page after page where most people were discussing things pretty respectfully as adults and then you wade in with your chimp suit on.

Go and talk to someone else bud. I'm not interested in engaging with you on this or any other issue.

When you're spouting inaccurate, and possibly dangerous, nonsense, you need calling out on it. Your laughable, found it on Google, reference to N95 respirators, is a clear sign you're almost entirely ignorant on this matter. If that's what you're wearing, grudgingly, then you're as much of a risk to others as if you were wearing nothing. 

[MONKMAN]

Putting the Islands, Borders and D&G into tier 3 is absolute lunacy.