Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[Sergeant Wilson]

Just now, pozbaird said:

Get to a checkout, maybe say ‘how’s things going in here just now, getting busy?’ Check out person maybe says ‘ach, OK, yourself?’ I say ‘not bad, fed up with the politicians now though, when does it end?’ They maybe say ‘I know, what about that party at Downing Street’… takes as long as it takes to bag the shopping and say ‘have a good one when it comes’.

I drive there and back and use the self service. I go when I think it'll be quiet, not for Covid reasons, just my intolerance.

[Mark Connolly]

1 minute ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

He's on it more than the other two.

Him and Jane Lewis every week should be enough to finally kill it off.

[GTee]

. Not reading back. Apologies for coming across as a gype. Hopefully everyone just ignored. No offence meant. Everyone doing their best in a sh**e situation and frustration boiling over - after pints. 

[Detournement]

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2301260-why-wont-the-west-embrace-russias-highly-effective-covid-19-vaccine/

The demand we all take MRNA vaccines when they are not the most effective form of vaccine should give everyone cause for thought. 

[UsedToGoToCentralPark]

Begging bowl claxon from Leitch

[UsedToGoToCentralPark]

Swiftly followed up with a we just don't know.

[vikingTON]

It's telling that these psychos think that the default choice for a 'we just don't know' scenario should be 'restrictions', rather than 'normality'. Why don't you go away for a wee while and work out what you do know first - actual knowledge, not another set of utterly hopeless model predictions - and then have your much-promised 'adult discussion' with the public. 

[vikingTON]

2 hours ago, Detournement said:

4 and 5 will be Omicron vaccines. 

They are already saying they expect it to be ready by spring so that will be the reasoning to keep the passport restrictions going through the summer.

If there are Omicron vaccines developed in 2022 and governments slap restrictions on society until then, there is absolutely no reason for the healthy majority of the public to take a third vaccination. 

They don't need to protect themselves any further from a glorified cold and with the vulnerable being given boosters and privileged access to antiviral medication, the 'don't kill your granny' narrative is redundant as well. 

For governments that want to promote vaccine uptake for public health/nefarious, tinfoil hat nonsense reasons, they really have not thought out the incentive structure to do so. 

[deegee]

Seems to be the easy and convenient “catch all” way of deflection and denial these days.
 

Hancock on tv the other morning spend 15 minutes saying he didn’t know anything, in relation to Downing Street parties and we’ve had Sturgeon, Leith & co up here using that tactic to enforce more restrictions (or threat of). My exact sentiments echo virginton above; before opening your mouth and confirming that you are all useless gibbering fools, either say nothing or come back once there is some thought-out strategy and medical/ scientific or economics based evidence.

[Detournement]

1 minute ago, virginton said:

If there are Omicron vaccines developed in 2022 and governments slap restrictions on society until then, there is absolutely no reason for the healthy majority of the public to take a third vaccination. 

The idea that restrictions are justified solely to encourage vaccine uptake has already been widely accepted. 

That will be the narrative this summer. 

 

[Todd_is_God]

The models being presented are deeply worrying tbh. Not because they will be anything close to accurate, because they will be utter nonsense as per, but because they are in the same territory as Ferguson's nonsense that led to the UK Gov buckling to start the whole thing.

They are going to force the government in to introducing severe restrictions, whilst pushing the need to get boosters for the vaccine rollout they are simultaneously trashing as useless.

All of this, remember, for a variant with ZERO confirmed deaths anywhere in the world.

We are so far removed from March 2020 it would be laughable if it wasn't going to have severe implications.

[Bairnardo]

The models being presented are deeply worrying tbh. Not because they will be anything close to accurate, because they will be utter nonsense as per, but because they are in the same territory as Ferguson's nonsense that led to the UK Gov buckling to start the whole thing.
They are going to force the government in to introducing severe restrictions, whilst pushing the need to get boosters for the vaccine rollout they are simultaneously trashing as useless.
All of this, remember, for a variant with ZERO confirmed deaths anywhere in the world.
We are so far removed from March 2020 it would be laughable if it wasn't going to have severe implications.

The pandemic in the UK has been politicised to such a degree that IF the virus is busy morphing itself into a common cold, our lot will be too busy posturing to notice it.

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, Detournement said:

The idea that restrictions are justified solely to encourage vaccine uptake has already been widely accepted. 

That will be the narrative this summer. 

It was begrudgingly accepted under the guise of a one-off "once in a lifetime" scenario. I don't think for a second it will have anywhere near the same level of acceptance one year later, particularly as it would mean that the return to normality that said vaccines would provide would be demonstrably shown to be patently untrue.

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, Bairnardo said:

4 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

The models being presented are deeply worrying tbh. Not because they will be anything close to accurate, because they will be utter nonsense as per, but because they are in the same territory as Ferguson's nonsense that led to the UK Gov buckling to start the whole thing.
They are going to force the government in to introducing severe restrictions, whilst pushing the need to get boosters for the vaccine rollout they are simultaneously trashing as useless.
All of this, remember, for a variant with ZERO confirmed deaths anywhere in the world.
We are so far removed from March 2020 it would be laughable if it wasn't going to have severe implications.

The pandemic in the UK has been politicised to such a degree that IF the virus is busy morphing itself into a common cold, our lot will be too busy posturing to notice it.

One cold is too many.

[Detournement]

9 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

It was begrudgingly accepted under the guise of a one-off "once in a lifetime" scenario. I don't think for a second it will have anywhere near the same level of acceptance one year later, particularly as it would mean that the return to normality that said vaccines would provide would be demonstrably shown to be patently untrue.

One of the interesting things about the UK situation is that we don't have enough unvaxxed people to make them the scapegoats like in the USA so the media and government are struggling to create a credible narrative. 

[vikingTON]

27 minutes ago, Detournement said:

The idea that restrictions are justified solely to encourage vaccine uptake has already been widely accepted. 

That will be the narrative this summer. 

If you restrict now then there is no incentive for perfectly healthy people to take a third shot when they can just wait for a much more effective fourth one next year though. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The models being presented are deeply worrying tbh. Not because they will be anything close to accurate, because they will be utter nonsense as per, but because they are in the same territory as Ferguson's nonsense that led to the UK Gov buckling to start the whole thing.
They are going to force the government in to introducing severe restrictions, whilst pushing the need to get boosters for the vaccine rollout they are simultaneously trashing as useless.
All of this, remember, for a variant with ZERO confirmed deaths anywhere in the world.
We are so far removed from March 2020 it would be laughable if it wasn't going to have severe implications.

I take it you are talking about the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine model?

It's so full of bad assumptions that it should be filed in the bin along with Niall Ferguson's predictions.

The real issue with a lot of these models is that human behaviour keeps catching the modellers out. They make assumptions about what we might do and how many “contacts” between us that entails, but if we fail to behave as expected the projections are badly thrown out.

[Todd_is_God]

4 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

I assume you are talking about the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine model?

It's so full of bad assumptions that it should be filed in the bin along with Niall Ferguson's predictions.

"Bad" is maybe unfair as, in this case, it just means one that you don't like. But any modelling of Omicron hospitalisations / deaths is an assumption atm.

Because of that, you can make the model show whatever you want it to.

If I wanted to model a 0.1% hospitalisation rate then I could. And there is no real world data to either support or disprove it.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

"Bad" is maybe unfair as, in this case, it just means one that you don't like. But any modelling of Omicron hospitalisations / deaths is an assumption atm.
Because of that, you can make the model show whatever you want it to.
If I wanted to model a 0.1% hospitalisation rate then I could. And there is no real world data to either support or disprove it.

Assumptions that have been wrong throughout this pandemic.

I get that you do have to make some assumptions but the modellers don't seem to learn from their past mistakes.

[Todd_is_God]

18 minutes ago, virginton said:

If you restrict now then there is no incentive for perfectly healthy people to take a third shot when they can just wait for a much more effective fourth one next year though. 

Spot on. If they want to incentivise third shots now, then they can't close anything. There needs to be a gain from getting the jag.

I can see them maybe going down the 2G route like Germany for absolutely everything. 2G+ for large events would be a faff (and largely pointless), but that is there too if they want to leave wriggle room.

That way they don't close anything, and they aren't wrecking the vaccine rollout.