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1 minute ago, Abdul_Latif said:

There have been some wild takes on this thread, but this is right up with the best of them.

Gove apparently wanted a full lockdown this winter. He has been parroting the same shit as Blair during the full pandemic and is completely owned by Rupert Murdoch.

Sunak is a billionaire and is another one who would fall in with France, Germany, Australia etc. So would Javid who is a multi millionaire banker.

There are also a few dark horse MPs who might be candidates for a Macron/Obama style rise to prominence. I've got my eye on Tom Tugendhat.

It's hard to see a candidate who would have taken the course Johnson has this winter other than Truss and she is too crazy to be considered.

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2 hours ago, btb said:

In what universe does 398 people dying with Covid yesterday and 16,000 people in hospital mean that it has essentially gone away?

Goodness. This type of thing was alright in the early days but we are all far better educated now on these statistics than we were 2 years ago. 

Firstly, in the space of a single week at the end of December, around a million people tested positive for Covid. Of those million or so people, those that died for any reason whatsoever in the 28 days that follow will be counted as one of these deaths you quoted. You can discount that figure for, as @craigkillie said, if everyone caught covid all at once, then every death for the following month would be counted as a covid death.  Use the death certificates number instead as it is likely to be a bit more accurate.

Secondly, as has been said elsewhere, taking a single day/data point is misleading. Use the 7 day average - @superbigal does this here regularly. 

Thirdly, we know now that over a third of those in hospital with covid showed up at hospital for another reason (illness, mental illness, injury, etc) and just happened to test positive thereafter.  

Finally, I don't think anyone has said that covid has gone away, nor that anyone expects it to go away any time soon. It is here to stay, but is a different animal from the 2020 one for numerous reasons. 

Pointing at these headline numbers carries far less weight than it did.

 

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Certainly seem to have stirred up the Greek Chorus which dominates this thread, in truth I'm probably not so far off some of your views and have stated previously that Covid is now endemic and we have to change the way we deal with it. In particular I've also stated that the Scottish Government restriction have been too severe recently.

 

That doesn't mean to say it's over, as the government figures demonstrate and I'm confident that the replies which I haven't read (subsequent to @Elixir's first) have been crass in the extreme. Special mention to @oaksoft who was the biggest doom-monger on BAWA back at the start but who has re-invented himself as the reincarnation of Che Guevara on P&B - there are none so fervent in their views as a convert. 

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2 minutes ago, Abdul_Latif said:

He might well have, but if he was actually PM and did it, the back benches would have their 54 letters of no confidence in before the end of the first week of lockdown.

 

They did that to Theresa May and she survived the vote no problem. The Covid Research group are a minority in a historically large Tory backbench. 

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Worth doing a 24 hour Cases Update as the Tidal (Going Out) Wave continues:  3 Day lag to allow reporting to be accurate.

Cases DOWN over 14% over a 1 day period.  Cases are now DOWN OVER 40% in the last reported 7 Days.

Only a raving Dentist or the like could now claim cases are on the rise. This with Schools being back and more LFTs than ever being conducted.

Every single LA on the steep decline.

Total Cases Scotland 7 days 4th January to 10th January were  79,739 to 68,508 Down 14.08%, Positivity was 26.0% now 24.4%.  Cases per 100K were 1592.6 now 1253.3

Home Nations Weekly Cases  per 100K update  :  England  1796 to 1723 down 4.06%, Wales 1942 to 1735  down 10.66%, Northern Ireland 2590 to 2311 down 10.77%

Cases in Europe in terms of of numbers per 100K  Ireland 3069, France 3029, Portugal 2296, Denmark 2248, Greece 2159, Switzerland 2024, Italy 1980,  Spain 1,725, only countries over 1350.

Council progress in last week as follows.

Click cases by neighbourhood to see the spread on the geographical map. 
https://public.tableau.com/profile/phs.covid.19#!/vizhome/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

South Lanarkshire  1,851 to 1,582  Down near 15% and goes Top !!

West Dunbartonshire    1,856 to 1,577  

Inverclyde   1,835 to 1,528  

Renfrewshire    1,713 to 1,444  

North Ayrshire    1,602 to 1,372

North Lanarkshire   1,662 to 1,371  Down 17.50%

Glasgow City   1,570 to 1,369

Falkirk   1,565 to 1,343

East Renfrewshire   1,592 to 1,338

East Ayrshire  1,521 to 1306

Fife  1,470 to 1,289

Dumfries & Galloway  1,458 to 1,282

Angus   1,424 to 1,258 

Aberdeen City  1,401 to 1,238

Perth & Kinross  1,387 to 1,235

Moray   1,464 to 1,227 

Dundee City 1,371 to 1,219

Clackmannanshire   1,449 to 1,213

South Ayrshire 1,437 to 1,206

Stirling  1,341 to 1,183

East Dunbartonshire    1,412 to 1,174  

City Of Edinburgh   1,341 to 1,167

East Lothian   1,345 to 1,144

West Lothian   1,325 to 1,141

Midlothian  1,276 to 1,086

Aberdeenshire  1,170 to 1,009

Highlands   1,308 to 1,181  to 974

Argyll & Bute   1,084 to 932

Scottish  Borders   1,004 to 818 

Western Isles   616 to 563

Orkney Islands   692 to 514 

Shetland Islands   608 to 451

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38 minutes ago, Detournement said:

England depends on Boris surviving until the summer.

A new PM might well move England onto the WEF schedule. 

I'll stick my neck out and say Boris is surviving. He's had the full Cabinet (with the obvious equivocation of Rishi) explicitly come out in support, while in the other corner wee Dougie has had a couple of disgruntled old no-mark MPs and his entire team of MSPs come out calling for his resignation. Boris has launched his full fleet at it, the resigners have got a couple of rubber ducks by comparison.

Boris stays. And more to the point of this thread, England leads the way out and Scotland will be dragged along in its wake. Say what you like about him but sometimes determinedly blustering on in the face of those advising caution can sometimes provide a win.

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55 minutes ago, craigkillie said:


Do the SNP not consistently poll higher than they actually get? You always see projections of them winning a majority or taking all the seats in Westminster or whatever and they never quite get there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Scottish_Parliament_election

Was slighty higher but quite a few in April had lower than they got. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_United_Kingdom_general_election_in_Scotland

They got more in the election than predicted. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland

Polls got this miles wrong and was a lot less than they predicted. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2016_Scottish_Parliament_election

Polls got this miles wrong and was a lot less than they predicted. 

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sub-national_opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#Scotland

More than the Polls predicted. 

Edited by betting competition
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3 hours ago, btb said:

In what universe does 398 people dying with Covid yesterday and 16,000 people in hospital mean that it has essentially gone away?

It is actually 19,735 hospital going with https://www.travellingtabby.com/uk-coronavirus-tracker/

I agree it hasn't gone away yet, but hopefully its near the end game now. 

Edited by betting competition
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1 hour ago, craigkillie said:


Do the SNP not consistently poll higher than they actually get? You always see projections of them winning a majority or taking all the seats in Westminster or whatever and they never quite get there.

It's more to do with applying universal swings nationally without taking account of local factors.

The National polling figures tend to be about right, its translation into seats that tends to be overestimated (although were underestimated in 2019).

The polls for 2021 were 50/50 on a majority. 

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50 minutes ago, betting competition said:

Going with travelling tabby they said the figure only includes PCR tests and they hope tomorrow to get some LFT results. 

LFTs are now clear to see.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/phs.covid.19/viz/COVID-19DailyDashboard_15960160643010/Overview

https://blogs.gov.scot/statistics/2022/01/13/changes-to-covid-19-case-reporting/

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Some wee wifie just told to put my mask on in Stornaway Airport whilst I was sitting in the empty waiting area. Immediately after a recorded tannoy announcement booms over reminding everyone to wear their masks, wouldn’t surprise me if the wee fanny hit a button to do that. Metres away from me there’s a bloke reading a book, no mask on - but he’s okay because he’s in the cafe area, even though his beverage is finished. Farce.

ETA - glad I have snacks with me for the plane so if they try their nonsense I’ll be doing this:

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