Theyellowbox Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 It suits both leaders in the US and UK to talk up the possibility of war as it detracts from domestic issues/elections for both. See also Macron in France. Clearly the media like a good old war story too. I think then, you have to look at whether a full scale invasion of Ukraine would actually be something Russia wants. It could be a long drawn out battle. Not militarily as such, but you'd imagine the Ukranians would not just accept it even if Russia invade the whole country. Arguably Arghanistan hastened the fall of the soviet Union, so would they want a repeat. Equally, it suits Putin to have other countries fearful of an invasion. Taking all that into account, if there was only a small incursion and/or some kind of diplomatic solution, all sides would be able to claim some kind of victory, even Ukraine could say a crisis has been averted. So that is what we will get. A few rockets etc and then a 'well won diplomatic solution' 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sherrif John Bunnell Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 I'm assuming Mauritius took one look at Liss Truss' performance in Moscow last week and decided they can do whatever they want to poor old Blighty. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/14/mauritius-formally-challenges-britains-ownership-of-chagos-islands 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 19 minutes ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said: I'm assuming Mauritius took one look at Liss Truss' performance in Moscow last week and decided they can do whatever they want to poor old Blighty. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/14/mauritius-formally-challenges-britains-ownership-of-chagos-islands It's Johnson's Falklands moment! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 I hope to f**k the headline is a misquote. Europe closer to war than at any point in 70 years, fears UK minister | Ukraine | The Guardian 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 (edited) 3 hours ago, Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo said: I hope to f**k the headline is a misquote. Europe closer to war than at any point in 70 years, fears UK minister | Ukraine | The Guardian Nope they are the only side ramping it up and its not the Russians or Ukrainians Edited February 14, 2022 by doulikefish 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zetterlund Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 6 hours ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said: I'm assuming Mauritius took one look at Liss Truss' performance in Moscow last week and decided they can do whatever they want to poor old Blighty. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/14/mauritius-formally-challenges-britains-ownership-of-chagos-islands Truss to strongly refute this challenge as soon as she confirms where on earth the Chagos Islands are. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Nope they are the only side ramping it up and its not the Russians or UkrainiansI think the ridiculousness of the quote is that Europe's not closer to war than the times it's actually been at war. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jedi Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Surely the whole current situation gives Putin an excuse to roll his tanks up to the top of hill, encircle Ukraine, and then march them back down again, having 'proved' that he has the power to invade any time he wants, all in order to keep Ukraine out of NATO. He doesn't actually have to fire a shot. Meanwhile, Johnson is of course all over it, as the perfect distraction from partygate-totally suits his agenda. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Jedi said: Surely the whole current situation gives Putin an excuse to roll his tanks up to the top of hill, encircle Ukraine, and then march them back down again, having 'proved' that he has the power to invade any time he wants, all in order to keep Ukraine out of NATO. He doesn't actually have to fire a shot. Meanwhile, Johnson is of course all over it, as the perfect distraction from partygate-totally suits his agenda. Except nobody gave any indication at all of Ukraine joining NATO, so f**k knows what Putin's theatre was for. Diversion from domestic stuff probably. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Jedi Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Think so. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 It's convienent for UK politicians to forget about the whole bombing Belgrade thing but it definitely happened. The same minister apparently thought Serbia was a former republic of the USSR. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Except nobody gave any indication at all of Ukraine joining NATO, so f**k knows what Putin's theatre was for. Diversion from domestic stuff probably.Ukraine's links with NATO have strengthened over the last few years and they are officially recognised as an aspiring member, they even changed their constitution a couple of years ago to allow membership.What domestic stuff? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 (edited) 41 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said: Ukraine's links with NATO have strengthened over the last few years and they are officially recognised as an aspiring member, they even changed their constitution a couple of years ago to allow membership. What domestic stuff? Ukraine would need the agreement of all 30 NATO members to join, that is hugely unlikely. Putin's popularity shot up to 85% when he invaded Crimea, he's got another Presidential election early in 2024. 42% of Russians don't want him to stand again, highest ever and 57% amongst younger voters. https://www.levada.ru/2021/10/11/vladimir-putin-10/ P.S. You have to wonder if Russia stopped threatening its neighbours whether they might not feel the need to seek NATO protection. Edited February 16, 2022 by welshbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 I don't think that Putin is acting now due to an election two years away. He probably is considering his appeal with the Russian public but more in terms of legacy than a distant election that he'll find a way to win regardless.I tend to agree with the commentators who frame these moves as a bid to effectively renegotiate the balance of power in Eastern Europe now the USA is withdrawing from their role as World Police and Europe's disastrous abandonment of nuclear power has strengthened Russia's hand.You could imagine the US's reaction if Russia started conducting military exercises in Mexico and I don't think it'd be simply for popularity ratings. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said: I don't think that Putin is acting now due to an election two years away. He probably is considering his appeal with the Russian public but more in terms of legacy than a distant election that he'll find a way to win regardless. I tend to agree with the commentators who frame these moves as a bid to effectively renegotiate the balance of power in Eastern Europe now the USA is withdrawing from their role as World Police and Europe's disastrous abandonment of nuclear power has strengthened Russia's hand. You could imagine the US's reaction if Russia started conducting military exercises in Mexico and I don't think it'd be simply for popularity ratings. That's not a great parallel in that the US isn't currently at war in part of Mexico after annexing a fair slice of it in recent times. I don't really see why Russia feels it has a divine right or need to a buffer zone of tribute countries to protect itself, who wants to or is capable of conquering Russia? -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 That's not a great parallel in that the US isn't currently at war in part of Mexico after annexing a fair slice of it in recent times. I don't really see why Russia feels it has a divine right or need to a buffer zone of tribute countries to protect itself, who wants to or is capable of conquering Russia? They don't have a right to it, or need it, but they'd quite like it. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coprolite Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 16 hours ago, welshbairn said: Except nobody gave any indication at all of Ukraine joining NATO, so f**k knows what Putin's theatre was for. Diversion from domestic stuff probably. There was a Nato parliamentary group Crimea platform set up in April last year. This was published in June last year. Look at 9-15, 50 and critically 69. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_185000.htm Worth noting that the 100k or so troops at the Eastern border were already there last April. Some Ukrainey politician (Foreign minister maybe) was publicly asking NATO for clarity on accession at the time of that NATO conference. Meanwhile Russia has been pushing for promised constitutional reform and free elections (irony alert) for Donbas that formed part of the treaty to end the 2013 war. NATO membership and the associated commitment to territorial integrity would prevent that happening. Plenty of indication that NATO membership was on the table and in progress as well as why it is a problem for Russia. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 35 minutes ago, welshbairn said: That's not a great parallel in that the US isn't currently at war in part of Mexico after annexing a fair slice of it in recent times. I don't really see why Russia feels it has a divine right or need to a buffer zone of tribute countries to protect itself, who wants to or is capable of conquering Russia? The US is responsible for large parts of Mexico becoming an ungovernable Narco State. I think Russia takes the same Never Again outlook as Israel. 26 Million dead and all that. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, Detournement said: I think Russia takes the same Never Again outlook as Israel. 26 Million dead and all that. Likewise Ukraine with 4 million dead followed by a campaign of Russification, Holodomor as they call it. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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