Geopolitics in the 2020s.

[ICTChris]

https://x.com/nkobserver/status/1700155715283714239?s=46&t=VI9PBOGiArQ8qgQBk99O4w
 

Iranian IRGC post an ominous video warning Azerbijan against any potential escalation.

Iran is close to Armenia in the region, a valuable ally. There has been tension between the IRI and Azerbijan recently. 

[welshbairn]

18 hours ago, ICTChris said:

https://x.com/nkobserver/status/1700155715283714239?s=46&t=VI9PBOGiArQ8qgQBk99O4w
 

Iranian IRGC post an ominous video warning Azerbijan against any potential escalation.

Iran is close to Armenia in the region, a valuable ally. There has been tension between the IRI and Azerbijan recently. 

They like their videos, I doubt it means much.

 

[Zetterlund]

Argentinian presidential frontrunner Javier Milei appears to be simultaneously a lot of fun and a dangerous madman,

 

[Wee-Bey]

The world's first reddit President.

[welshbairn]

A defence of Milei from the Right.

https://fee.org/articles/to-understand-javier-milei-turn-your-eyes-to-central-europe-and-the-baltics-not-trump-tower/

 

Edited September 9, 2023 by welshbairn

[vikingTON]

Quote

He envisions an Argentine economy anchored in the principles of free markets, private property, Western values, and the nation's classical liberal Constitution, which draws inspiration from Juan Bautista Alberdi.

It's almost as if 'free markets' and 'classical liberalism' have already proven to be a total failure in Argentina over the past, oh, 200 years of experience.

It was literally the same gunboat political philosophy that allowed Britain to turn it into a client state FFS. 

[vikingTON]

There's old man yelling at a cloud meme, and then there's this:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/09/putin-allies-west-russia-president-north-korea-iran-south-africa

Time to 'get tougher' on an array of states who don't sign up to the West's view of affairs, from North Korea to, err, India and South Africa. How can the West feasibly do this? No actions cited whatsoever!

The sudden fixation on Slovakia's upcoming election as somehow being a crucial domino that will demolish NATO and Robert Fico as a candidate who is Definitely Created By Russia in the liberal media is equally laughable. Fico's politics are the equivalent of a Red Wall-led Labour party, coupled with the same sense of personal entitlement to rule that Meciar had running the place in the 1990s. That has been Fico's M.O. for years, long before eastern Europe and Putin cropped up again on the agenda of the West.

Fico's party possibly achieving 20% of the vote and 'winning' the election would really not be an issue. The ridiculous fragmentation of the popular vote that would produce such an outcome is. 

Edited September 9, 2023 by vikingTON

[ClydeTon]

9 hours ago, virginton said:

There's old man yelling at a cloud meme, and then there's this:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/09/putin-allies-west-russia-president-north-korea-iran-south-africa

Time to 'get tougher' on an array of states who don't sign up to the West's view of affairs, from North Korea to, err, India and South Africa. How can the West feasibly do this? No actions cited whatsoever!

Even by the Guardian's standards that's an awfully biased 'news' piece. I was surprised that wasn't in opinions.

It's quite simple why Putin has turned to North Korea and that's, simply, because they have what they both need; Russia needs guns and equipment, North Korea needs food. It's a natural alliance.

The idea that the west 'needs to get tougher' is a bit daft, considering that's the exact reason that Russia and North Korea were forced into this alliance, it's the reason Putin can't set foot in 90% of countries, and it's the reason North Korea has no chance of re-joining the world.

Quote

 Yet he will be cautious, knowing how Russia abandoned his country after 1991.

Evidently the writer of this article needs a history lesson! Russia in 1991 wasn't "big bad russia", it was a relatively normal country post-USSR, with a democratic, rule of law. Although the Oligarchy was still prevalent.

Putin didn't go full madman until Clinton told him that NATO wouldn't work with two superpowers, painting the USA as imperialist. Not that this justifies his actions but he has a point.

Quote

More than anything perhaps, as shown by his forlorn flirtation with Donald Trump, the Lionel Messi of narcissist politics, Kim wants attention, wants to be treated like the great leader he’s convinced he is.

Obligatory Donald Trump mention, and Lionel Messi analogy.

[Zetterlund]

That Guardian piece is absolutely laughable, although I knew that before reading it when I saw it was a foreign policy rant from Simon Tisdall.

The people of Slovakia can't possibly be throwing support behind a politician because sanctions and the prolonging of the war are hurting ordinary people all over Europe, it must be because they're stupid and easily manipulated by that omnipresent Russian propaganda. 

Tisdall at least completed the bingo card of baddies by shoehorning the leaders of Iran and Syria into his rambling, so full points from his bosses for that I suppose.

[LongTimeLurker]

31 minutes ago, ClydeTon said:

...Putin didn't go full madman until Clinton told him that NATO wouldn't work with two superpowers,...

Germany and Vlad still wanted to do Nordstream 2 right up until the start of his SMO so think "full madman" has to be viewed as a much more recent development than that.

If he had full on invaded Ukraine in 2014 to reinstall Yanukovych he would likely have won easily at that point and arguably would have had some justification in terms of international law given the Maidan protests were a coup against democratically elected authorities. He still wanted to sell natural gas to Germany though.

What appears to have made him flip his lid is that the Minsk accords did not work as he expected and Ukraine began to emerge as a firmly pro-western state with an ever strengthening and NATO-aligned military. A deal with Turkey over Bayraktar drones immediately preceded the military build up that led to the Feb 24 2022 invasion.

[ClydeTon]

3 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Germany and Vlad still wanted to do Nordstream 2 right up until the start of his SMO so think "full madman" has to be viewed as a much more recent development than that.

If he had full on invaded Ukraine in 2014 to reinstall Yanukovych he would likely have won easily at that point and arguably would have had some justification in terms of international law given the Maidan protests were a coup against democratically elected authorities. He still wanted to sell natural gas to Germany though.

What appears to have made him flip his lid is that the Minsk accords did not work as he expected and Ukraine began to emerge as a firmly pro-western state with an ever strengthening and NATO-aligned military. A deal with Turkey over Bayraktar drones immediately preceded the military build up that led to the Feb 24 2022 invasion.

The invasion of Ukraine was because Ukraine was pro-NATO, and Putin is hellbent on destroying NATO.

He worked with Germany because they were among the "victims" of NATO- Putin sees it as the USA's tool to project it's power upon Europe. He sees the European states as puppets to be liberated. So, working with Germany would, in theory, help them to 'liberate' themselves from American dependence.

This is a bit of a theory, but with Putin's views of NATO being as stated, it's a fairly educated guess.

[Wee-Bey]

Risible stuff from Tisdall. 

[welshbairn]

Slovakia's Douglas Ross. From 2019..

http://www.errc.org/news/this-time-its-really-time-to-go-robert-fico

[ICTChris]

A single truck of aid from the Russian red cross has been allowed by the Azeri military to cross into Ngorno Karabkah.  The truck came via the Agdam route whereas the main route, still currently blockaded, is via the Lachin Corridor.  Apparently the next step in the deal will be for aid to resume via the Lachin route, it remains to be seen if aid is admitted via that route.

[Wee-Bey]

[Zetterlund]

340 million views in under 20 hours. Tucker Carlson isn't for everyone, but his audience is absolutely vast and his content since starting this venture has been really good whether or not you like him personally.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

(0:00) Intro (3:32) Inflation (6:00) Gender ideology (9:57) Abortion (11:45) Pope Francis' affinity for dictators (14:45) Architecture (17:52) Advice to Americans and Donald Trump (22:23) Climate change (27:55) China (29:18) Prayer (30:39) Violent political protests

Getting the important questions out the way first.

[Wee-Bey]

No chance I'm sitting through half an hour of Carlson talking to that weirdo reddit dude about culture war stuff.

Zetterland is right about him in terms of his reach though and his ability to articulate and frame certain issues. The successor to Trump on the American Right will probably be similar to Carlson. They tried with DeSantis but the cloning technology isn't ready yet and they've just been left with an unlikeable wee oddball.

I don't agree with everything he says in this clip, but it's striking both how well he frames it and is able to get the point across and the fact that you would be unlikely to hear this from a liberal US politician.

 

[Zetterlund]

2 hours ago, Ziggy Sobotka said:

No chance I'm sitting through half an hour of Carlson talking to that weirdo reddit dude about culture war stuff.

Zetterland is right about him in terms of his reach though and his ability to articulate and frame certain issues. The successor to Trump on the American Right will probably be similar to Carlson. They tried with DeSantis but the cloning technology isn't ready yet and they've just been left with an unlikeable wee oddball.

I don't agree with everything he says in this clip, but it's striking both how well he frames it and is able to get the point across and the fact that you would be unlikely to hear this from a liberal US politician.

 

What makes you think he's a weirdo? Seems pretty normal to me...

 

[Wee-Bey]

Naughty.