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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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15 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

Not quite.  They were accurate to the point that Clinton out performed expectations on the popular vote.  Polls are not predictions, anyway. 
 

 

Yes quite. They were signaling a massive electoral landslide for Clinton, which as you've indicated, the electoral college is all that matters. Thus why 538 had to put out numerous articles over the next few weeks explaining why they were dead wrong then.

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3 minutes ago, AmericanFan said:

They were way off in their predictions of a Clinton landslide in the electoral vote, which is all that matter.

I'm aware mate, I live here, haha.

To be fair to pollsters, the winner takes all nature of (most) American states makes it difficult for them in close runs.

If pollsters say that Biden will win a state by 0.1% and he actually loses by 0.1%, for instance, they are accurate to within 0.2% across millions of votes. And, still, completely wrong.

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Yes quite. They were signaling a massive electoral landslide for Clinton, which as you've indicated, the electoral college is all that matters. Thus why 538 had to put out numerous articles over the next few weeks explaining why they were dead wrong then.
538 gave Trump a 30% chance of winning going into the last week in 2016. He needed a few things to fall in his favour and they did.

They don't make predictions, they simply run a model which runs umpteen simulations and works out probability.
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2 minutes ago, AmericanFan said:

They were way off in their predictions of a Clinton landslide in the electoral vote, which is all that matter.

I'm aware mate, I live here, haha.

What State are you in and what county? If you voted did you vote the same down ballot, and can you do that with one tick or button or do you have to do it for every job? Not that I'm nosey or anything..

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11 minutes ago, Henderson to deliver ..... said:

What's everyone doing for coverage ? Got CNN on atm but it's pretty dry.

Tempted to switch Fox on for bantz.

Watching the Chapo stream. Atm they're watching compilations of people taking hits to the baws.

 

In 2016 I started watching Infowars for a laugh, fell asleep and woke up to Alex Jones and Roger Stone drinking champagne and grinning. 

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