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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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9 minutes ago, ThatBoyRonaldo said:

Absolutely wild how close this is going to be and how much shit Biden would be eating right now if it weren't for the pandemic. 

Don't know if the pandemic's made much of a difference. Democrat voters cite it, but a lot of Republican voters referring to it as the china virus and a lot of resentment about lockdown measures.

Edited by Mr Heliums
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6 minutes ago, Clockwork said:

Serious question as I’m not much of a betting man, but how can the bookies odds/markets favour a Trump win so clearly, when the major news outlets are still predicting that this will go right to the wire? emoji848.png

Probably because all the money is going on Trump and they're frightened of a big payout.

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Just now, welshbairn said:

Probably because all the money is going on Trump and they're frightened of a big payout.

This is exactly it. The odds have thrashed all over the place all night. Since that Milwaukee result came in they've halved on Biden. Odds are a terrible guide to what's going on.

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10 minutes ago, Clockwork said:

Serious question as I’m not much of a betting man, but how can the bookies odds/markets favour a Trump win so clearly, when the major news outlets are still predicting that this will go right to the wire? emoji848.png

Bookies will adjust odds to suit them to avoid big payouts.

Think of a football game, if loads of folk bet on one outcome they'll adjust the odds even though the betting has no effect on what outcome will be achieved.

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Guest Bob Mahelp
35 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

pfff no chance, game over if Trump wins there?

Nope, if Biden wins Michigan and Wisconsin then Pennsylvania becomes irrelevant. 

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4 minutes ago, Savage Henry said:

Green Bay voted for Clinton. 

It’s still redder by comparison, however there’s only 32k votes to come in from GB so if Joe’s 29k up just now, then it looks like he’s squeaked the Aaron Rodgers style comeback. Without the referees giving him a million yards worth of penalties just because he’s Aaron Rodgers. 

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