The US Presidential election prediction thread

[Adamski]

1 hour ago, MixuFruit said:

A Polish guy once got mad at me for saying Poland was in eastern Europe and not central Europe. I don't really get the problem but whatevs, central Europe if it upsets them.

 

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

Nobody wants to be lumped in with the Bulgarians.

To complete that circle, I once got into an argument with a Bulgarian whose take on our corner of Europe was 'Scottish? English? Pah - same difference.'

[NotThePars]

39 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

The election wasn't fixed but there certainly were serious attempts by the Russians to direct the narrative on social media.

 

 

Aye diddy attempts

[NotThePars]

4 minutes ago, Adamski said:

 

To complete that circle, I once got into an argument with a Bulgarian whose take on our corner of Europe was 'Scottish? English? Pah - same difference.'

He's correct.

[Arabdownunder]

One of Giuliani’s sons, who was at the madcap press conference, has Covid.

Need to narrow that down. The 4 seasons one or the hair dye running down the face one?

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Aye diddy attempts

In their St Petersburg building they have around a 1,000 paid bloggers and commenters - there are at least 4 other sites where they have bloggers based.

That isn't a diddy organisation - as I said, the purpose isn't to influence elections but to sow distrust in traditional media at home in Russia and abroad.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

One would hope they are tapping up this site for some blue riband shitposters. I am available, erudite, bereft of principle so just drop me a pm Vlad.

The pay starts at 25,000 rubles per month for a 40 hour week (about £250) but can go to 80,000 rubles per month (about £800) for those that work longer hours and who meet their bonus targets. They also get free meals.

It's not a great earner.

[Lofarl]

So that’s Don jr got the old China virus.  Perhaps he can sniff some of that Columbian smelling salts to make him feel better.

[welshbairn]

15 minutes ago, Lofarl said:

So that’s Don jr got the old China virus.  Perhaps he can sniff some of that Columbian smelling salts to make him feel better.

Hopefully Daddy's got a great new experimental invention to make him feel  A OK again in a jiffy!

[NotThePars]

In their St Petersburg building they have around a 1,000 paid bloggers and commenters - there are at least 4 other sites where they have bloggers based.

That isn't a diddy organisation - as I said, the purpose isn't to influence elections but to sow distrust in traditional media at home in Russia and abroad.

1000 bloggers and commentators would have to be comparable to Zac Snyder’s 300 if they wanted to make a dent in the level of insane shitposting that goes into any notable event in US politics

[Florentine_Pogen]

17 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Hopefully Daddy's got a great new experimental invention to make him feel  A OK again in a jiffy!

"12 bottles of bleach please....."

[LongTimeLurker]

9 hours ago, aDONisSheep said:

It's an interesting narrative, that the candidate with the most votes is the 'unpopular one'.  

On the whole she was more poular than Trump  but, lost because of the archaic electoral college system, by some distance.

The flip side of this is that Trump is still popular, garnering more votes than just about any successful President in history (obviously not Biden).

I literally talked about the electoral college and voter suppression being the only thing keeping the Republicans in the game in the following paragraph and how by 2030 they will be toast because of demographic change. Did you bother reading the whole message before hitting reply?

Trump should have been road kill in 2016 after many of the things he said and did. The Democrats had fixed their primary process to ensure candidates favored by party bigwigs would win pretty much no matter what by having superdelegates. There was a mood for radical change in the electorate in 2016 rather than backing the establishment. They should have backed Bernie Sanders.

Edited November 21, 2020 by LongTimeLurker

[mike rankine]

IThe Democrats had fixed their primary process to ensure candidates favored by party bigwigs would win pretty much no matter what by having superdelegates. There was a mood for radical change in the electorate in 2016 rather than backing the establishment. They should have backed Bernie Sanders.

Those in the Democratic Party hierarchy who ensured Clinton was the candidate rather than Sanders didn't want radical change. Even in hindsight they will have been content with tolerating 4 years of Trump in order to "restore" the status quo with Biden.

[LongTimeLurker]

Wouldn't be proper to wish any misfortune on Joe Biden, but they are a heartbeat away from having President Kamala Harris now and that would be interesting to watch unfold because she is far left by US standards.

There has always been a suspicion that Bernie Sanders is a bit of a champagne socialist, so he wasn't necessarily as big a threat to the status quo as he was being portrayed.

[aDONisSheep]

3 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

I literally talked about the electoral college and voter suppression being the only thing keeping the Republicans in the game in the following paragraph and how by 2030 they will be toast because of demographic change. Did you bother reading the whole message before hitting reply?

Trump should have been road kill in 2016 after many of the things he said and did. The Democrats had fixed their primary process to ensure candidates favored by party bigwigs would win pretty much no matter what by having superdelegates. There was a mood for radical change in the electorate in 2016 rather than backing the establishment. They should have backed Bernie Sanders.

Whilst I agree entirely with the sentiment.  Sanders wouldn't have beaten Trump either. 

In the eyes of many in the electorate Trump had lots going for him.

1.  He wasn't seen as a politician

2. He had simple messages that appealed to enough people who felt let down, by successive governments.

3. He lied without conscience.

What we on the left often get wrong is that we think that being 'right, is more important than it is.

But as Carville said, 'it's the economy, stupid.'

Sewing division is easier than building consensus.  Remember Trump has more votes in 2020 than Obama 2008 (it's not even fucking close)!  Despite the ineptitude, despite the long term economic damage and national debt recklessness,  despite the racism, the weaponisation of public health, mass graves and tens of thousands dead, he has still received more votes than Obama. 

Why?  

That's easy, because before the pandemic, Americans were working and feeding their families.  Sure, it was short termism, and sure there was the racism and fundamental Christian appeal etc, but at the heart of it was the increased employment.

I am firmly of the belief, had it not been for the pandemic, he'd have won a second term, and how fucking sad does that make me feel!

Yours

aDONis

 

 

 

Edited November 21, 2020 by aDONisSheep

[aDONisSheep]

5 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Trump making medicines cheaper in revenge for them delaying vaccine news till after the election is hilarious.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/20/trump-drug-prices-overseas-438819

It's an ill wind...

[welshbairn]

Biden's 6 million votes ahead now, in case anyone had a bet on the popular vote margin.

[welshbairn]

9 minutes ago, MixuFruit said:

Is there anywhere you can open a book on the party of the winning candidate in 2024? I don't mean the actual specific candidate.

Can't find it but the odds would probably be something like 4/5 either party. Maybe Democrats would be slight favourites as the incumbent usually wins. If you mean actually opening a book that would be Betfair Exchange.

Edited November 21, 2020 by welshbairn

[NotThePars]

4 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

I literally talked about the electoral college and voter suppression being the only thing keeping the Republicans in the game in the following paragraph and how by 2030 they will be toast because of demographic change. Did you bother reading the whole message before hitting reply?

Trump should have been road kill in 2016 after many of the things he said and did. The Democrats had fixed their primary process to ensure candidates favored by party bigwigs would win pretty much no matter what by having superdelegates. There was a mood for radical change in the electorate in 2016 rather than backing the establishment. They should have backed Bernie Sanders.

Hell, if Obama hadn't stopped Biden from making a run then he probably would've won as well. Hillary was shit but it did also partially come down to her campaign's steadfast refusal to break with the algorithm and campaign in swing districts.

[aDONisSheep]

4 hours ago, NotThePars said:

Hell, if Obama hadn't stopped Biden from making a run then he probably would've won as well. Hillary was shit but it did also partially come down to her campaign's steadfast refusal to break with the algorithm and campaign in swing districts.

God it sounds like I'm some sort of Hilary apologist, but I don't see where this confidence that Biden would easily have won comes from.

Hilary was first choice of nearly 46% of Democrat members, Biden was on 17%.  Now there were certainly mitigating factors.  Biden only had a shadow campaign because he wasn't on the trail whilst Beau was terminally ill in hospital.  Completely understandable and a shyt state of affairs.

This is also not a dig a Biden, who by all accounts is known for being one of the nicest people you'll ever meet (let alone a politician).  Be that from Michelle Obama or Lindsay Graham. 

What worries me, is that I think we (being us, the more left leaning or liberal) are falling into the same trap as we did four years ago.

Once again we seem to think that we can villainise the likes of Trump, point out how abhorrent an individual he is, call his supporters cooks, deplorables, racists and worse, as though that logic will be enough to win the day.  Trump was seen as an absolute joke candidate in 2016, be that late night comics, politicians (Obama included) and (most) political commentators. The end result, he tapped into fears and insecurities and became the most powerful man on the planet (we need to properly address those fears and insecurities, not just dismiss them out of hand).

 This notion that any other candidate would have walked 2016 because of how abhorrent Trump was/is, is flawed.  Build the wall, mexican rapists and drug smugglers, grabbing pussy, mountains of bullshit, didn't stop him in 2016 and in 2020 we had all of the above plus a literal tsunami of dead americans, it still didn't deter 74m+ people from voting for him.

Politics is becoming more polarised, and we (the left) are not helping ourselves by constantly calling anyone that votes Tory/Republican racist or stupid.  It doesn't change their minds, at best it just silences them till they vote.  

Calling Trump/Boris/Tories/Brexit voters etc cnvts is fun for a while, but it doesn't stop them getting elected.

Yours, christ I'm depressed.

aDONis

Edited November 21, 2020 by aDONisSheep

[welshbairn]

Hope you don't mind if I briefly celebrate a defeat for the dark side for the first election for a while, before I get all maudlin again..

Edited November 21, 2020 by welshbairn