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The US Presidential election prediction thread


ICTChris

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4 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

I just wonder how not having a Johnson or Stein taking votes will affect the result.

As I remember it the libertarians are less of a threat to the GOP than the Greens have been to the Dems in recent years, so net gain Biden.

It could be different if Ron Paul, Greenwald's buddy, or his son was standing.

Edited by welshbairn
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Well I have spent a lot of time telling people Trump is a confidence scammer and all his bollox about delaying elections, cancelling them, the supposed schemes to supress votes (more than the usual for the south) have all been largely gas and wind. That he is head faking people over his re-election chances.

50 minutes. 

There is little to no real information at the moment. Turn out is high but voter registration is really not that strong an  indicator. If its close we will not know the result for days, if its not we will know in a couple of hours. 

Florida will have early counts (not results) in about 70 minutes. 

 

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28 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

To be fair to pollsters, the winner takes all nature of (most) American states makes it difficult for them in close runs.

If pollsters say that Biden will win a state by 0.1% and he actually loses by 0.1%, for instance, they are accurate to within 0.2% across millions of votes. And, still, completely wrong.

Truth 

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32 minutes ago, AmericanFan said:

Yes quite. They were signaling a massive electoral landslide for Clinton, which as you've indicated, the electoral college is all that matters. Thus why 538 had to put out numerous articles over the next few weeks explaining why they were dead wrong then.

This is absolute bollocks, btw. 538 gave Trump a 29% chance of winning the electoral college, which is a very competitive race.

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