DeeTillEhDeh Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Going to call it a night with radio 4 on quietly. If I wake up to a Trump win after indy 2014, US 2016, Brexit and fucking Boris 2019, I'll be mightily pissed off. Inverness better barricade their windows.Ditto here.I'm off to bed too. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) 3 minutes ago, 101 said: If he wins Ohio do you know what % his chances are for winning? Along with all of those? And not giving anything else to Biden? High. I'm using this model: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-biden-election-map/?cid=abcnews Edit: the models presume common patterns in similar states - if Trump wins a Midwest state they presume he has a better chance in neighbouring states. Winning one of Florida, Georgia and North Carolina boosts the chances in the other two. But in practice it doesn't generally work like that, you just can't model for it. Edited November 4, 2020 by GordonS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark Connolly Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Pretty sure Andrew Neil is even more drunk than usual 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fullerene Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 8 minutes ago, Detournement said: That's a great name though. I keep getting his mail. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UAE1929 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Biden out to evens, Trump odds on. Enough for me to go to bed. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G-MAN Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Right, calling it a day. Watching CNN and reading a few blogs.Looking more like a Trump win as the night is going on. Now 8/11. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonsism Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Trump moving to favourite on a lot of bookies. 4/5 on Paddys. America 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G51 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, UAE1929 said: Biden out to evens, Trump odds on. Enough for me to go to bed. Aye I'm done as well. Not staying up to watch the Democrats blow the biggest sure thing in political history. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gaz5 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Aye I'm done as well. Not staying up to watch the Democrats blow the biggest sure thing in political history.Since the last one? [emoji1787]It's all pretty depressing, at least the CNN coverage is decent. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 great tie on the BBC just now. very jealous of Larry 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Are betting odds driven by the betting companies or by the folk placing bets? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Granny Danger said: Are betting odds driven by the betting companies or by the folk placing bets? both but they won't lengthen the odds of Biden if they thought he would get in 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theroadlesstravelled Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 wid 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G-MAN Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arabdownunder Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Scenes if Trump wins the White House but the Dems flip the senate. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G-MAN Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Biden drifting out to 2/1 now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 (edited) Biden led in Florida polls by an average 2.5% on the 538 average. 49.1 to 46.6. NYT is forecasting a Trump win by 3.1. That would be a polling error of 5.6, which is bad. 538 have Biden ahead by an average 4.7 in Pennsylvania. Edit - They had Biden up 1.8 in North Carolina, NYT forecast him losing by 1.6. They had Biden up 1.2 in Georgia, NYT have him losing by 3. So potentially errors of 3.4 and 4.2. Edited November 4, 2020 by GordonS 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Arabdownunder said: Scenes if Trump wins the White House but the Dems flip the senate. That Cal Cunningham shagger looks to be drifting out of contention with Joe in NC. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
throbber Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 11 minutes ago, G-MAN said: Right, calling it a day. Watching CNN and reading a few blogs. Looking more like a Trump win as the night is going on. Now 8/11. 10 minutes ago, sonsism said: Trump moving to favourite on a lot of bookies. 4/5 on Paddys. America 2 minutes ago, G-MAN said: Biden drifting out to 2/1 now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.