Monkey Tennis Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 This is not the picture I'd planned to wake up to. Genuinely worried that Trump is going to sneak in. It looks like we'll stilll be waiting on Pennsylvania in a couple of days, which might decide it. Christ, Biden was meant to be home and dry by now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralstonite Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Path is Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, NE-2, most of Maine and DC at that point with Pennsylvania and Georgia apparently now still also in play. Possible, but not looking likely. Pennsylvania looks gone, though whether the postal votes have yet to be counted will be instrumental. It will be close, but Trump's now leading 212 to 209, with most of the other states looking favourable for him. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, Paco said: The polls appear to be wrong again. They’ll give their stuff about margin of error and getting it right nationally etc but they’re wrong in plenty of states. I don't understand how you can dismiss the margin of error. That's how maths works. The worst state appears to be Florida. Take the pollsters rated A by 538; in the last 9 polls they average Biden 49.7, Trump 46.4. It looks like the result will be Biden 48, Trump 51. So Biden's result is 1.7 out, well within the margin of error. Trump's is 4.6 out, so pretty bad but not mental for a state poll. Folk expect polls to be more accurate than they are or they claim to be. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ralstonite said: Possible, but not looking likely. Pennsylvania looks gone, though whether the postal votes have yet to be counted will be instrumental. It will be close, but Trump's now leading 212 to 209, with most of the other states looking favourable for him. Mail-in ballots in the biggest counties in Pennsylvania and Michigan are breaking 4 to 1, 5 to 1 to Biden. He's still strong favourite to win Michigan and slight favourite to win Pennsylvania. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralstonite Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, GordonS said: Mail-in ballots in the biggest counties in Pennsylvania and Michigan are breaking 4 to 1, 5 to 1 to Biden. He's still strong favourite to win Michigan and slight favourite to win Pennsylvania. Fair enough. I notice Nevada's changed, and Biden's now leading. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Ralstonite said: Fair enough. I notice Nevada's changed, and Biden's now leading. Just saying on CNN that there are 2 million mail-in ballots to be counted in Pennsylvania. Biden could win those by a million, wiping out Trump's lead. That's when the civil war starts. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Ralstonite said: Fair enough. I notice Nevada's changed, and Biden's now leading. That's his now they are counting the postal votes 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, GordonS said: I don't understand how you can dismiss the margin of error. That's how maths works. The worst state appears to be Florida. Take the pollsters rated A by 538; in the last 9 polls they average Biden 49.7, Trump 46.4. It looks like the result will be Biden 48, Trump 51. So Biden's result is 1.7 out, well within the margin of error. Trump's is 4.6 out, so pretty bad but not mental for a state poll. Folk expect polls to be more accurate than they are or they claim to be. It's more that the average of multiple polls is out as that points to a systematic skewing towards Biden and an issue with methodology. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambomo Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just got up to watch some of this. Who has been most reliable so far, that I should watch? I put on Sky but think I have CNN? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGoon Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, Jambomo said: Just got up to watch some of this. Who has been most reliable so far, that I should watch? I put on Sky but think I have CNN? CNN have been excellent all night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Jambomo said: Just got up to watch some of this. Who has been most reliable so far, that I should watch? I put on Sky but think I have CNN? I started on Sky but after recommendation on here I switched to CNN. It's live online if you don't have it on the telly. 5 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: It's more that the average of multiple polls is out as that points to a systematic skewing towards Biden and an issue with methodology. There's no question there's a systematic problem, it's a similar level and all in one direction across the board. I factored in 3% for my prediction on this thread. Given the way their core supports are changing I can well believe that Trump voters are just more difficult to get on a phone or to complete an online poll. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralstonite Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 How many EC votes are Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin worth? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jambomo Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 3 minutes ago, TheGoon said: CNN have been excellent all night. 2 minutes ago, GordonS said: I started on Sky but after recommendation on here I switched to CNN. It's live online if you don't have it on the telly. There's no question there's a systematic problem, it's a similar level and all in one direction across the board. I factored in 3% for my prediction on this thread. Given the way their core supports are changing I can well believe that Trump voters are just more difficult to get on a phone or to complete an online poll. Thanks folks. I found CNN on tv, so got that on now. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Ralstonite said: How many EC votes are Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin worth? 20, 16 and 10. Biden needs any two of them, or if he wins Georgia he only needs one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sonsism Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 This cannot be good for Biden’s ticker. If Biden wins from here it’s going to get so messy - no way Trump accepts it if he’s already chatting shite on Twitter. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 You know, it's on course for Biden 306 - 232 Trump. Can I stop sweating now? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralstonite Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 1 minute ago, GordonS said: 20, 16 and 10. Biden needs any two of them, or if he wins Georgia he only needs one. Thanks, I just found a list of all the EVs by state: https://en.as.com/en/2020/11/03/latest_news/1604398820_568384.html This really will be very close. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blootoon87 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 You know, it's on course for Biden 306 - 232 Trump. Can I stop sweating now?I wish I was as confident. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordonS Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 Just now, Blootoon87 said: 1 minute ago, GordonS said: You know, it's on course for Biden 306 - 232 Trump. Can I stop sweating now? I wish I was as confident. It's knife-edge in 3 states totalling 52 EVs so I'm not at all confident, but it's slightly more likely than not that Biden wins in each of them. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
101 Posted November 4, 2020 Share Posted November 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, GordonS said: You know, it's on course for Biden 306 - 232 Trump. Can I stop sweating now? Hope it's that comfy 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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