Scottish Parliamentary Elections May 2021

[Dunning1874]

Derek Stillie 

[eez-eh]

True or not - they’ll be peddling it so that if/when it doesn’t happen it gives them the chance to paint it as a huge blow.

[GTG_03]

2 minutes ago, S7C said:

I am struggling to comprehend how Mundell genuinely believes that, unless the list vote for the SNP has been massively underestimated. Seems unlikely.

A tactic to then say 'See; the SNP were on course for a majority but the voters of Scotland have rejected a divisive, horrendous and deadly referendum.'

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I hate to break it to you, but the modern-day equivalents of Cicero and Julius Caesar are not exactly standing and scraping home anywhere else in the region. Many of the sitting/incumbent MSPs are just as forgettable as the one standing in Dumbarton. 
An issue absolutely lies with SNP HQ, but it's got nothing to do with them not selecting the mythical Great Local Candidate but rather spending their campaign banging on about list votes all over the country instead of carpet bombing that target seat with Sturgeon, or Forbes, or anyone who the voters don't detest with targeted messages. The campaign restrictions probably didn't help either but the problem is with the campaign rather than the candidate or local factors. 

The campaign being suspended has played a factor no doubt.

Once it restarted the newswaves were then dominated by Johnson & Cummings - the Scottish Parliament election has pretty much played second fiddle to that.

I still think though that questions need answered regards the paucity of the SNP campaign - it was just not visible at all - not even on Social Media.

[Dunning1874]

I don't think Mundell does believe that the SNP are making it on the list; he's playing up the narrative that it's achievable so somehow a rejection of their policies if they don't make it.

[DeeTillEhDeh]

A tactic to then say 'See; the SNP were on course for a majority but the voters of Scotland have rejected a divisive, horrendous and deadly referendum.'

That's what if looks like to me.

It's duplicitous shite that any semi-decent political journalist should be calling out.

[Salt n Vinegar]

4 minutes ago, S7C said:

I am struggling to comprehend how Mundell genuinely believes that, unless the list vote for the SNP has been massively underestimated. Seems unlikely.

I suppose it is possible that, suddenly, he is correct about something but it would be an occurrence entirely without precedent. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Yes City East win again - increased majority.

[the snudge]

Dundee are good c***s

[GordonS]

1 hour ago, Hedgecutter said:

What I mean is that it depends on where the sampling you talk of takes place.  For example, you couldn't just take a sample from white-settler-central Banchory, the same number from Huntly and expect to get an accurate prediction from that.

Aberdeenshire West takes in areas that in the WM elections are Tory-held West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine and SNP-held Gordon

You kinda can, though of course you wouldn't do that.

A decent sampling exercise will cover at least 90% of the boxes and ideally all of them. But even if you only get, say, a fifth of them, if you have the records for those same boxes from the previous election then you can calculate the changes, how much each party is up and down, and project that across the constituency. Unless the result is close, that would be good enough and if your boxes were relatively representative it would be very accurate.

[wirez]

Ramsay Jones there with a regular reminder that a fairly sizeable percentage of Scots are greedy, selfish b*****ds.

 

[GordonS]

1 hour ago, DC92 said:

Fair enough. I'd be surprised if they didn't scoop up the "Lib Dem" vote and increase their majority, but the glimmer of hope for the SNP is they're overperforming their GE2019 vote in the north-east and the Tories are underperforming, and they came surprisingly close to taking the equivalent Westminster seat then.

Looking at the other Aberdeenshire seats - and generally in SNP-Tory marginals - it's extremely difficult to make an argument for the SNP winning there. 2019 was a different election.

I'm much more worried about Pentlands (where Labour got 23% last time and I'd expect at least a third of that to go Tory) and Perth etc. The SNP will do very well to hold them against the tactical voting patterns we've seen.

[The Master]

Michael Crichton sparing no expense in Dundee City East, losing the Lib Dem’s their deposit. 

On a more serious note, at what point will the Lib Dems realise it’s not worth standing in every seat anymore?

[GordonS]

27 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Something that irks me because I seldom see it properly challenged, is the idea that another referendum would be hideously divisive and damaging.  

Obviously, I know why Unionists trot this line out, but it's a complete revisionism regarding 2014.  The consensus then across both sides was that the entire process was invigorating for our politics. 

I think there was some of the Twitter misbehaviour that characterises everything now, but otherwise, we had huge participation levels, massive turnout, school kid events at the hydro, hustings displays aplenty etc.  Pretty much nobody at the time saw the process as detrimental.

I think it's been allowed to be placed alongside the Brexit one though, with the Jo Cox horror and the ensuing paralysis of parliament.  It's convenient for some to conflate the two.

It just bugs me because those saying how awful another referendum would be, rarely have the reality of last time pointed out to them.

Couldn't agree more.

If Yes wins then we're offski and that's it.

If No wins, despite Brexit and Boris, it's over for decades and possibly longer. If that happened I think I'd look to emigrate.

[LongTimeLurker]

Expectation management to enhance the ability to gloat later?

 

Edited May 8, 2021 by LongTimeLurker

[Hedgecutter]

Some yoon on Radio Scotland there trying to play down the Edinburgh Central result by saying "it would have been a surprise if Angus Robertson had not won that seat".

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

3 minutes ago, The Master said:

Michael Crichton sparing no expense in Dundee City East, losing the Lib Dem’s their deposit. 

[LongTimeLurker]

Just now, GordonS said:

...If No wins, despite Brexit and Boris, it's over for decades and possibly longer. If that happened I think I'd look to emigrate.

Age cohort demographics suggest No would still be more likely than not to win for another 10 years or so, but after that it's looking very rosy for the Yes side right now.

[Hedgecutter]

4 minutes ago, The Master said:

Michael Crichton sparing no expense in Dundee City East, losing the Lib Dem’s their deposit. 

Knowing that they have a majority on just the other side of the bridge where they'd vote for a seagull wearing a Lib Dem rosette must really rub salt in the wound.

[GordonS]

4 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Age cohort demographics suggest No would still be more likely than not to win for another 10 years or so, but after that it's looking very rosy for the Yes side right now.

I think another win for No would bleed us of a genuine desire for it and support would slump back down to 40% or less. Middle of the road folk would stop thinking of it as something worth pursuing. I also think we'd have a brain drain the likes of which we've not seen since the 70s. Through the looking glass stuff, of course.