Which Clubs in the Lowland League in Five Seasons' Time?

[leomessi1984]

Upwards:

Bonyrigg and EK should be the two standouts to progress in the next two seasons to L2.

Talbot, Darvel and Tranent will make interesting progress.  The latter two due to finances for as long as they last and Talbot for the obvious.  Can see those three pushing into L2 at least  Linlithgow will at some point come up and should be a strong Lowland league side.

Pollok, Clydebank and Beith would be the other standout from the West for me.  The rest of the East is full of maybe clubs like Penicuik, Dundonald and Hill of Beath who could all solidify on the LL with the right direction.

Downward:

Half of L2 could come down - would not be surprised if there is a strong playoff % win lean towards the lower teams in the coming years.

VoL are goosed, just a matter of how far they fall.  Edinburgh Uni, Dalbeattie, Gala and Gretna also likely to drop but could sustain in the EOS prem perhaps.  Braves and Broomhill also will struggle when the bigger boys come into the LL and they hoover up the better players those teams are currently attracting.  Spartans and Boness will be the perennial LL teams for years to come I think, flirting with promotion but not quite getting there.

[Gordon EF]

5 minutes ago, leomessi1984 said:

Talbot, Darvel and Tranent will make interesting progress.  The latter two due to finances for as long as they last and Talbot for the obvious.  Can see those three pushing into L2 at least  Linlithgow will at some point come up and should be a strong Lowland league side.

What's the score with Tranent? Has someone pumped in money recently?

They played East Fife in the Cup last season and, goes without saying it was just a one off game, but they looked well off L2 standard.

[beachboy]

56 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

What's the score with Tranent? Has someone pumped in money recently?

They played East Fife in the Cup last season and, goes without saying it was just a one off game, but they looked well off L2 standard.

There's been no money pumped into Tranent, its just a well run club that attracts decent players, our budget in the EOS is competitive but I don't think for one minute it will be the highest.

Progressing in the Scottish also benefits the club financially.

Without doubt we have one or two close to the club that will, if required, put their hands in their pockets to make a deal happen, but that happens in all leagues.

[Gordon EF]

17 minutes ago, beachboy said:

There's been no money pumped into Tranent, its just a well run club that attracts decent players, our budget in the EOS is competitive but I don't think for one minute it will be the highest.

Progressing in the Scottish also benefits the club financially.

Without doubt we have one or two close to the club that will, if required, put their hands in their pockets to make a deal happen, but that happens in all leagues.

Aye, I thought that was probably the case. I've just heard a few mentions of 'finances' in relation to Tranent recently. I'd imagine getting into the LL in the next few years is a very realistic aim but they're not one of the clubs I'd have as stick ons to get into the SPFL any time soon.

[leomessi1984]

3 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

What's the score with Tranent? Has someone pumped in money recently?

They played East Fife in the Cup last season and, goes without saying it was just a one off game, but they looked well off L2 standard.

Signing players such as Matthew Knox would indicate they aren't skint but I don't think it's a Kelty / EK level of funding. Certainly making more high profile signings than most in the EOS prem.  Clearly a well run outfit I would agree.

[oneteaminglasgow]

Are there any clubs currently below the East/West Premier divisions who would look to have a realistic possibility of making it to the SPFL at any point soon? Not next 5 years, presumably, but are there maybe some with the potential?

And, while the bottom half of the current league two are obviously in the most imminent danger, realistically every part time club in the SPFL could face the drop at some point.

 

[AsimButtHitsASix]

6 minutes ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

Are there any clubs currently below the East/West Premier divisions who would look to have a realistic possibility of making it to the SPFL at any point soon? Not next 5 years, presumably, but are there maybe some with the potential?

And, while the bottom half of the current league two are obviously in the most imminent danger, realistically every part time club in the SPFL could face the drop at some point.

 

St. Cadocs seem to have a decent financial backing. If they can get a place to play in East Ren and build up a support then they have a chance. 

[AlanCamelonfan]

36 minutes ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

Are there any clubs currently below the East/West Premier divisions who would look to have a realistic possibility of making it to the SPFL at any point soon? Not next 5 years, presumably, but are there maybe some with the potential?

And, while the bottom half of the current league two are obviously in the most imminent danger, realistically every part time club in the SPFL could face the drop at some point.

 

Potentially syngenta or boness athletic 

[AsimButtHitsASix]

1 minute ago, AlanCamelonfan said:

boness athletic 

Think they would ever overtake Bo'ness United? Cannae see it

[oneteaminglasgow]

31 minutes ago, AsimButtHitsASix said:

St. Cadocs seem to have a decent financial backing. If they can get a place to play in East Ren and build up a support then they have a chance. 

I grew up in East Ren, would be interesting to see an SPFL side round there. I’m sure the good people of Newton Mearns would be thrilled by a bunch of football supporters turning up every two weeks.

My question is really based on the fact that Leith seem to score 7+ goals in league games with alarming regularity. I have no idea of their financial situation though, and obviously finding a suitable home ground might be an issue. And I’ve just checked and they aren’t even top of their league, so seems I know f**k all. 

[FairWeatherFan]

7 minutes ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

I grew up in East Ren, would be interesting to see an SPFL side round there. I’m sure the good people of Newton Mearns would be thrilled by a bunch of football supporters turning up every two weeks.

My question is really based on the fact that Leith seem to score 7+ goals in league games with alarming regularity. I have no idea of their financial situation though, and obviously finding a suitable home ground might be an issue. And I’ve just checked and they aren’t even top of their league, so seems I know f**k all. 

There are a handful of clubs that "could" make the SPFL. There's not a case of a sleeping giant though. Just new youth clubs and traditional clubs on hard times that with some decent management and a bit of money thrown at them could raise the ranks.

No one would have been tipping Darvel for the SPFL 5 years ago. They're now licenced, so the only expense to get to the SPFL is a decent first team.

[Ginaro]

22 minutes ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

My question is really based on the fact that Leith seem to score 7+ goals in league games with alarming regularity...

...seems I know f**k all. 

They've scored 7+ three times this season, against teams who are 10th, 11th and bottom of their Conference - unless these teams improve they will be a tier below Leith next season so big scores at home are not really a surprise.

More chance of a tier 7 club in the west making it to the SPFL, don't think those in the east have enough support to be sustainable.

23 hours ago, leomessi1984 said:

On 26/10/2021 at 12:01, Gordon EF said:

 

Signing players such as Matthew Knox would indicate they aren't skint but I don't think it's a Kelty / EK level of funding. Certainly making more high profile signings than most in the EOS prem.  Clearly a well run outfit I would agree.

Must have been some money put in to bring the ground up to licensing standards including good floodlights, of course if they keep going on Scottish Cup runs the investment will pay for itself.

[HibeeJibee]

1 hour ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

Are there any clubs currently below the East/West Premier divisions who would look to have a realistic possibility of making it to the SPFL at any point soon? Not next 5 years, presumably, but are there maybe some with the potential?

 

35 minutes ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

My question is really based on the fact that Leith seem to score 7+ goals in league games with alarming regularity. I have no idea of their financial situation though, and obviously finding a suitable home ground might be an issue. And I’ve just checked and they aren’t even top of their league, so seems I know f**k all. 

Leith have a very small support, and currently play on a back pitch at Edinburgh Uni. They will be returning to Meadowbank - to groundshare the stadium pitch with Edinburgh City - whenever that ground is finally completed. They were unlucky not to be promoted to EOS Premier for last season: with no playoff possible Inverkeithing went up due to their better PPG. Leith were on an unbeaten run going all the way back to February 2020 until a defeat at home to Edinburgh United and thrashing at Haddington earlier this month. They're in a promotion battle with them and Kennoway, plus a few others hanging on the coat tails, and currently trail by 3pts.

I'm not sure there is anybody seriously capable of making Lowland - nevermind SPFL2 - from First Division level anytime soon; clubs like Haddington, Leith, Dunipace, Glenrothes, Heriot-Watt Uni and Preston would aim to kick-on in Premier if promoted... Tynecastle, LTHV and Inverkeithing have all done this to greater or lesser degrees... but it's a big leap to challenge for promotion, far less to achieve it and then do it all over again at a higher level again.

Nobody from Conference X is going to arrive at EOS Premier level until 2024-25 at earliest (i.e. qualifying for Second Division next season; then consecutive promotions). Syngenta and Bo'ness Athletic went off like a rocket in July but the latter have faltered slightly and indeed Armadale are now 2nd. It's also hard to tell exactly how capable these X clubs really are; as having joined so belatedly has left them in a bit of a bubble. Couple of examples: before the season started the Fauldhouse manager was critical of his club not being given an 'accelerated route' to EOS Premier level, and vowed to achieve consecutive promotions to reach it; he was binned a couple of months later with his team rock bottom of the entire league system. At the weekend Bo'ness Athletic lost in a cup-tie at Crossgates (mid-table in EOS Premier) whilst Armadale lost in another at Tynecastle (ditto); so for the moment the only victory a Conference X club has achieved over a club from tier 5 or tier 6 was Pumpherston battering Vale of Leithen 5-1 and frankly that isn't saying very much: indeed since that victory Pumpherston have drawn with Bathgate and then lost 4-1 to Stoneyburn, 7-2 at home to Edinburgh United and 9-2 at home to Whitburn !

Haddington, Glenrothes, Armadale and Bo'ness Athletic get the sort of crowd you'd associate with higher levels... 150-250... in Bo'ness Athletic's case helped by tapping Friday night football.

[Gordon EF]

2 hours ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

realistically every part time club in the SPFL could face the drop at some point.

 

Aye, nobody should be under any illusions about that. East Fife have only finished in the bottom half of L2 twice in the past 25 years but I think the odds would say there's a decent chance we'll be relegated from the SPFL at some point. We'll probably be in L2 next season and then you're always just one bad season away from it.

Quote

Are there any clubs currently below the East/West Premier divisions who would look to have a realistic possibility of making it to the SPFL at any point soon? Not next 5 years, presumably, but are there maybe some with the potential?

Any team could make it if some guy comes in and pumps money in but let's say they don't count. I'd honestly be shocked if any club currently below tier 6 makes it into the SPFL 'organically' any time in the next 20 years.

Edited October 27, 2021 by Gordon EF

[oneteaminglasgow]

17 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Aye, nobody should be under any illusions about that. East Fife have only finished in the bottom half of L2 twice in the past 25 years but I think the odds would say there's a decent chance we'll be relegated from the SPFL at some point. We'll probably be in L2 next season and then you're always just one bad season away from it.

Aye, I think the fact that both Arbroath and Montrose, currently two of the best part time sides in Scotland, have been a bawhair from relegation in the past 7 or 8 years, while Cowdenbeath and Brechin were both Championship sides in that time frame shows that none can relax about it. 

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, Gordon EF said:

...Any team could make it if some guy comes in and pumps money in but let's say they don't count. I'd honestly be shocked if any club currently below tier 6 makes it into the SPFL 'organically' any time in the next 20 years.

Think shocked is a bit too far. Very surprised would be as far as I would go. Arthurlie, Whitburn and St Rochs would be the most obvious possibilities on that sort of timeline, in my opinion. First two are sleeping giant type scenarios and the latter seem to have been able to tap into Celtic's fanbase in a FCUM sort of way in recent years.

[Gordon EF]

7 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Think shocked is a bit too far. Very surprised would be as far as I would go. Arthurlie, Whitburn and St Rochs would be the most obvious possibilities on that sort of timeline, in my opinion. First two are sleeping giant type scenarios and the latter seem to have been able to tap into Celtic's fanbase in a FCUM sort of way in recent years.

Arthurlie are a club I considered but they haven't even been the top club in the West Juniors in the past 20 years (have they ever actually?). The odds of them being promoted into the LL, winning it, and then winning a play-off within the next 20 years have surely got to be very slim.

I would bet very decent money that none of the three teams you mention will get near the SPFL, never mind actually get into it, within the the next 20 years (barring some sugar daddy arriving on the scene). And I'd be extremely confident of winning that bet.

It's not even inconceivable that none of those 3 will even see the Lowland league in the next 2 decades.

[Wile E Coyote]

4 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Arthurlie are a club I considered but they haven't even been the top club in the West Juniors in the past 20 years (have they ever actually?). The odds of them being promoted into the LL, winning it, and then winning a play-off within the next 20 years have surely got to be very slim.

I would bet very decent money that none of the three teams you mention will get near the SPFL, never mind actually get into it, within the the next 20 years (barring some sugar daddy arriving on the scene). And I'd be extremely confident of winning that bet.

It's not even inconceivable that none of those 3 will even see the Lowland league in the next 2 decades.

Arthurlie were runners up 4 times in the West Superleague although the last time was 10 years ago and they have been on a downward trend since then. They have a lot of work to do to be a top non league club again but I wouldn't rule it out completely

[Gordon EF]

20 minutes ago, Wile E Coyote said:

Arthurlie were runners up 4 times in the West Superleague although the last time was 10 years ago and they have been on a downward trend since then. They have a lot of work to do to be a top non league club again but I wouldn't rule it out completely

We're probably getting into the territory of what exactly "shocked" and "surprised" means here. What are the odds Arthurlie get into the SPFL within 20 years? 5/1, 10/1, 20/1? And at what point do we move from 'surprise' to 'shock'?

It's largely semantics. It's clearly possible, but none of us will be betting our houses on it.

Edited October 28, 2021 by Gordon EF

[FairWeatherFan]

4 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

We're probably getting into the territory of what exactly "shocked" and "surprised" means here. What are the odds Arthurlie get into the SPFL within 20 years? 5/1, 10/1, 20/1? And at what point do we move from 'surprise' to 'shock'?

It's largely semantics. It's clearly possible, but none of us will be betting our houses on it.

I'd like to think the pyramid (SPFL included) will have changed in the next 20 years so who knows what any of this would mean.