Bairnardo Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 You raise the "what next for Russia?" question. Even if the "special military operation" stopped today, what next? Russia's International reputation is in the gutter. A sizeable proportion of the planet's governments and large sections of the population wouldn't piss on it if it was on fire. It's like a larger North Korea combined with the worst excesses of apartheid South Africa and the press and personal freedoms of China. Many countries are accelerating their non-Russia dependent energy programmes and I can't see economic sanctions being lifted any time soon. Would Putin "going", actually be enough? Putin going would be enough because Western countries and businesses will be just as desperate as Putin is to get something that can be called a victory and allow all to jump back into bed together 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doulikefish Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, ICTChris said: No idea who this guy is but he makes some good points about a Russian mechanised assault in the Donbas and the difficulty they would face. It really does look like they are struggling to put heavy armour into play. As per normal warfare it's bombard..control the skies...heavy armour to take ground....foot soldiers to control the ground. Apart from the first few days the Russians have been on the bombard stage however the redeployment into Donbas may see that strategy return 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 1 hour ago, dirty dingus said: Maybe they're telling Putin that they will continue to supply throughout his "special operation" to try force his hand to agree a ceasefire/deal. The way they have slowly ratcheted up the quality of what they are supplying fits that scenario as well. Couldn't do it all at once in case Vlad flips his lid so send only a few of the switchblade drones initially then once their presence on the battlefield has been normalised keep sending in more and more. Initially the Americans balked at sending Polish MiG fighter jets but now nobody bats an eyelid when they announce they are sending in helicopters. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, Salt n Vinegar said: You raise the "what next for Russia?" question. Did he? It's better than pictures of willies I suppose. Edited April 17, 2022 by Sergeant Wilson 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurkst Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 On 15/04/2022 at 20:26, LongTimeLurker said: Deutschland 83 was based very loosely on something that actually happened. On 15/04/2022 at 20:40, LongTimeLurker said: Was about Able Archer with events shown from an East German perspective. Well worth a watch. It was excellent although I thought the final episode jumped the shark a bit. Haven't watched the other two series, are they worth the effort? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dirty dingus Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said: The way they have slowly ratcheted up the quality of what they are supplying fits that scenario as well. Couldn't do it all at once in case Vlad flips his lid so send only a few of the switchblade drones initially then once their presence on the battlefield has been normalised keep sending in more and more. Initially the Americans balked at sending Polish MiG fighter jets but now nobody bats an eyelid when they announce they are sending in helicopters. I also think when they seen how badly the weaponry and vehicles Russia were using they thought it would be a great opportunity to basically finish off the Russian conventional war machine without using any citizens of Europe or North America. The Ukrainians seem a game bunch of lads and with the west tech Russia could be onto plums. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 50 minutes ago, Lurkst said: ...Haven't watched the other two series, are they worth the effort? Not as good but personally still found them enjoyable. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paul Kersey Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 59 minutes ago, Lurkst said: It was excellent although I thought the final episode jumped the shark a bit. Haven't watched the other two series, are they worth the effort? They're alright, but not as good. There's as similar series called The Same Sky, that is very good. It's also about a young East German spy operating in West Berlin. It has the added bonus of being set during the 1974 world cup and you can briefly see the Scotland v Zaire game mentioned on a TV in the background. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 (edited) Ah, Zaire. I'm still laughing Falkirk defenders study this training aid every night. Edited April 17, 2022 by Newbornbairn 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Can't really blame the Ukrainians for not surrendering in Mariupol given the mass graves and executions down to the Russians all over the country. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 A massacre that happened in 2014 in a town called Ilovaisk after Ukrainian soldiers got surrounded and were offered safe passage means there is very little trust between the two sides in these situations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Ilovaisk 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zen Archer (Raconteur) Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvio Tattiescone Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Imagine if Twitter had been around in WWII. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan Steele Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 I've got this image of that third tractor with the red "grabs" going face to face with the Russians and the driver moving the grabs to clap sarcastically. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boo Khaki Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 7 hours ago, ICTChris said: No idea who this guy is but he makes some good points about a Russian mechanised assault in the Donbas and the difficulty they would face. It's an interesting thread, and most of what he says has a strong element of truth to it, although he doesn't really cover a few salient points that he really could have expanded on. What I've found most interesting is that Russia has not committed any of it's most modern kit into the fight in Ukraine. They have an abundance of Soviet 60's and 70's stuff still in inventory, and that, or upgraded versions of it, is what's currently being destroyed over the border. I think I've see a few T80 in their columns, but I haven't seen any T90, and certainly no T-14, so that begs the question why are they happy committing all this out-dated stuff when it's obvious the enemy is perfectly capable of dealing with it, and they are losing AFV's and armour at a colossal rate? One obvious answer is cost. The stuff is there, so you may as well use it. I also think that the fact Russia clearly initially believed that this whole thing was going to be over in days and a bit of a non-event will have factored into the initial planning and thought that their aims could be achieved without bringing their most up to date kit with them. It's possibly also true that they are still stuck in the doctrinal dogma of the later Cold War era, and many of the soldiers crewing this stuff are drawn from the distant Eurasian parts of Russia, and that the units these guys are conscripted into simply aren't provided the newest and most expensive toys. Again, with regards to cost, I have a suspicion that because the conflict has dragged on far longer than Russia initially thought, they will now be even more reluctant to send their best equipped forces to rectify the situation, because Ukraine is now in possession of more modern NATO and foreign gear of their own, and I'm not sure Russia will be all that confident in committing their most expensive stuff if it means it's just going to get shown up and destroyed. If Putin reckons he can swing a full declaration of war and full mobilisation, then I think what we'd see is more of the same, just in hugely increased numbers. For all the kit they are having destroyed, it's still not as if Ukraine is actually coming out on top or kicking the Russians back over the border. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 Afghanistan in Europe. Exactly what the Americans want. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highlandmagar Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 28 minutes ago, Detournement said: Afghanistan in Europe. Exactly what the Americans want. While your pals the Russians want only conquest, war crimes and genocide. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Boo Khaki said: ...If Putin reckons he can swing a full declaration of war and full mobilisation, then I think what we'd see is more of the same, just in hugely increased numbers... Think you are suggesting there is a difference between a special military operation and a war in a round about sort of way. Was watching a youtube clip last night that argued quite convincingly with satelite pics that a lot of the tanks the Russian army have in storage are unlikely to actually be serviceable at this point because they have been left outdoors for years on end. If so, they probably have lost a large portion of what they have that's actually useable with no scope for building replacements on a reasonable timeframe. Found this exchange in the replies to the twitter thread linked above interesting: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Theroadlesstravelled Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 47 minutes ago, Detournement said: Afghanistan in Europe. Exactly what the Americans want. Russia can leave at any time. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted April 17, 2022 Share Posted April 17, 2022 27 minutes ago, Highlandmagyar Tier 3 said: While your pals the Russians want only conquest, war crimes and genocide. Whatever has already happened the priority has to be a peace settlement this year. Ukraine will be finished as a country if they try to extend the war for years, they have already lost a massive proportion of their population when you consider refugees who aren't coming back and the people who will choose to remain in Russian controlled territory. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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