DiegoDiego Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 Thanks to taking back Snake Island after HIMARS arrived Ukraine is also exporting grain again. Those two factors will take the edge off inflation in the months ahead.The restarting of grain exports is more symbolic than practical as things stand. The actual amount of grain exported so far is tiny. Even with a massive increase they're unlikely to get close to exporting last year's harvest before this year's needs to go into silos. I'd imagine the effect on UK inflation will be negligible. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Because after losing over 400 warplanes and helicopters, 1800 tanks and 4000 APCs largely to NATO weaponry, what's going to really drive him over the edge is Ukraine moving into Crimea, which is still de jure part of their country. Interesting theory but still some way to go until it gets tested out in practice. The Ukrainians haven't even liberated Kherson yet, but this is a major development if accurate: because it means the Russians can't drive over the Dniepr any more and are completely reliant on makeshift ferries. It would almost certainly escalate the Russian offensive from a special military operation to a declaration of war. Russian Nuclear Policy allows for nuclear first strikes in response to an attack on Russian territory. Russia sees Crimea as part of Russia. Given NATO involvement already, this type of move from Ukraine certainly would not be as trivial as you put it. Factor in to the mix a supposedly ill Putin in a vulnerable position and it does become a dangerous development. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, renton said: How much of that is trying to get the Russians to put more forces into the Crimea, or opposite Kherson in the short term. Either they want to try and put as much Russian forces into an area where they can more easily attrite them, or to pull them out of a sector elsewhere that the Ukranians can more easily counter attack, or both. Or, Zelenskyy is looking for the green light from NATO to engage in fighting beyond the Feb 2022 borders to be on record. Either way, I doubt a Ukrainian offensive in Crimea was what the West signed up for. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renton Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said: Or, Zelenskyy is looking for the green light from NATO to engage in fighting beyond the Feb 2022 borders to be on record. Either way, I doubt a Ukrainian offensive in Crimea was what the West signed up for. I don't think Ukraine are that interested in going in there, presently. Terrain is a shocker for an attacking force from the North and you end up under fire from Russian territory, Besides that kind of depth of advance is probably beyond Ukraine at the moment. If Ukraine can control the Dneiper crossings, the Hydroelectric dam (which basically is how Crimea get's fresh water) and can keep Crimean bases under fire, then I think that would do for them in the short to medium term. Edited August 10, 2022 by renton 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Todd_is_God Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 27 minutes ago, renton said: I don't think Ukraine are that interested in going in there, presently. Terrain is a shocker for an attacking force from the North and you end up under fire from Russian territory, Besides that kind of depth of advance is probably beyond Ukraine at the moment. If Ukraine can control the Dneiper crossings, the Hydroelectric dam (which basically is how Crimea get's fresh water) and can keep Crimean bases under fire, then I think that would do for them in the short to medium term. The wording of his statement, however, suggests that even in the unlikely event Ukraine is successful in the pushing back of Russian forces to the February 2022 borders that this would not be enough for him to consider that a victory. NATO have needlesly gotten themselves involved in a war where neither side now sees February 2022's borders as an acceptable resolution. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said: The restarting of grain exports is more symbolic than practical as things stand. The actual amount of grain exported so far is tiny... Meanwhile this is what the Ukrainians are saying: Worth bearing in mind that the Russians are exporting some of what last year would have counted as Ukraine's grain harvest so the situation in terms of global food supply is a lot less dire than it could have been. Looks like the bridge over the Dniepr isn't quite fully out of commission yet but probably only a matter of time: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 1 hour ago, renton said: I don't think Ukraine are that interested in going in there, presently. Terrain is a shocker for an attacking force from the North and you end up under fire from Russian territory, Besides that kind of depth of advance is probably beyond Ukraine at the moment. If Ukraine can control the Dneiper crossings, the Hydroelectric dam (which basically is how Crimea get's fresh water) and can keep Crimean bases under fire, then I think that would do for them in the short to medium term. I think it's all about leverage. For any eventual settlement Russia will have to see a potential territorial downside, not just carrying on a slow land grab by snail paced destruction until they control everything from Donbas through Kherson to Odessa and Transnistria. The Russian seizure of Crimea was brilliantly done and at no cost other than weak sanctions, the threat of turning that gain into a another field of attrition could make them more amenable to negotiation. Ukraine obviously aren't going to concede any territory while Russia are still on the attack. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 Meanwhile this is what the Ukrainians are saying: Worth bearing in mind that the Russians are exporting some of what last year would have counted as Ukraine's grain harvest so the situation in terms of global food supply is a lot less dire than it could have been.The $20 billion figure is quite the claim considering in 2020 they exported $4.61 billion. Edit: fake news, that was just their wheat exports. The grain total was $10.38 billion. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zen Archer (Raconteur) Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted August 10, 2022 Share Posted August 10, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 13 hours ago, Zen Archer (Raconteur) said: Think the Ukrainians are happy for now to keep the Russians guessing about how they did this but people who appear to know what they are talking about on twitter seem to be coming around to the idea that it was missiles that were the culprit based mainly on the size of the craters that are visible: 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 The special forces stuff is nonsense - I don't doubt there will be some out there but their role will be more logistical and information gathering than direct military action 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted August 11, 2022 Share Posted August 11, 2022 It's interesting to see the posters who were very vocally critical of Ukraine for using housing estates and schools to fire rockets from, strangely silent over Russia using a nuclear power station to fire rockets from. Some effort to manage to appear utterly desperate, given the subject matter, and the fact that it's a Scottish football forum... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clown Job Posted August 12, 2022 Share Posted August 12, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted August 12, 2022 Share Posted August 12, 2022 On 11/08/2022 at 21:33, jagfox said: lol wut The West abandoned the premise of a social contract back in the 1980s, and 'consumer opportunities' is literally the only thing keeping neoliberalism going. The US bankrupts people for routine medical treatment medical and is restricting the right to birth control. The dirty secret is that Putin and the West are two cheeks of the same arse in their economic outlook. Russians deserve better - and we deserve better too. Bonus points for the concern about remote provinces freezing and opportunities being reduced for the masses- I'm sure that Tory Britain will ensure that doesn't happen to millions this winter! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted August 13, 2022 Share Posted August 13, 2022 40 minutes ago, oaksoft said: ??? Has something happened to this thread or am I imagining that several posts have disappeared? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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